Welcome back everybody to a brand new edition of box office predictions! This time around I will be looking at two new wide releases, both of which are of the thrills and chills variety. Those would be Scream VI and 65, both of which will try to add to what is looking to be a very busy March at the box office. So without further ado, let’s get predicting!
Scream VI
The latest installment in the long running horror franchise hits theaters just over a year after the last one came out with most of the cast returning to fight a new Ghostface killer, with the action taking place in the Big Apple. Will this one end up making another box office killing or will turn out about as well as the last time a slasher icon attempted to take Manhattan. Let’s dig right in!
Pros:
The Scream franchise came back to life more than a decade after Scream 4 underperformed, last year with the release of Scream (2022). That film opened in January of last year to $30 million (compared to 4’s $18 million debut in 2011), legged out to $81 million domestic and made $137 million globally on a $25 million budget (Scream 4 only did $38 million domestically and $97 million globally on a $40 million budget, which was well below what the prior entries did). It became the rare franchise to bounce back after a severe under performance and the film itself was able to satisfy many fans old and new, making the prospect of another one more enticing than ever.
Most every cast member who survived last time around is returning (Melissa Barrera, Jasmin Savoy Brown, Jenna Ortega, etc.) as well as franchise vet Courtney Cox as Gale Weathers. One of the stand out elements of the last entry for many were the new cast members, so them coming back will only further interest. Also helping is that Jenna Ortega’s star has grown quite a bit ever since that last Scream film thanks to her appearances in other notable horror films like X and her role as the title character in the Netflix phenomenon, Wednesday.
Buzz has been building up in recent weeks with Paramount marketing the heck out of this thing through effective trailers, a Super Bowl ad, and even some viral marketing with how people dressed up as Ghostface are popping up all around the country. They are also making sure to emphasize the New York setting which is something new for the franchise and could intrigue many.
Enough time has passed between this movie and the last major full on horror film, M3GAN, (Knock at the Cabin was more of a thriller while Cocaine Bear is more of a comedy) in January to the point where audiences may be hungry for another scare fest. It helps that even in a crowded March there still isn’t a lot of competition in the horror category.
Finally, this one was budgeted at a level (around $35 million) where it doesn’t need to put up blockbuster numbers in order to be considered a successful venture.
So I’m expecting this one to do very well, as like Creed III, the stuff that may work against aren’t deal breakers.
Cons:
Since this is following up Scream (2022), it will not have the same advantage that movie had of being the legacy sequel that brought the main trio of stars (Neve Campbell, Courtney Cox, and David Arquette) back together onscreen to help guide the newbies so to speak. Granted, I feel like the new characters are more than capable of holding their own and the fact that the last one was well received means this one should still do the job in getting people’s interest.
The one other thing that may detract a couple of longtime fans is that this will be the first Scream film to not have Neve Campbell involved in some capacity, due to understandable issues regarding the actress’s payment. That could cause some older fans to not have much interest, but after how well Creed III performed without Sylvester Stallone as Rocky, I think it will end up being a moot point.
Final thoughts:
In the end there really isn’t a whole lot going against Scream VI at this point and I believe it has a shot at becoming one of the bigger entries in the series thanks to a lot of goodwill from the last one as well as the strong marketing. I think it has the potential to crack $40 million this weekend and while it might be a little more frontloaded than the last one, it should still pull in some respectable numbers. Globally it should also play like most of the other have.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $40 million
Domestic total: $97 million
Worldwide total: $157 million
Again this is the type of franchise where not a whole lot can go wrong thanks to the low budget nature of the franchise. Plus it is quite remarkable how this series was able to bounce back given how poorly the fourth film did and shows that with the right ingredients, one can successfully revive a long dormant franchise.
65
Next up we have this high concept original from Sony which is essentially about an astronaut (played by Adam Driver) finding themselves stranded on pre historic Earth and having to fight dinosaurs. It’s one heck of a premise, but can it succeed in getting people in droves, or will this one go extinct pretty quickly in terms of staying power. Let’s dig right in!
Pros:
The film sports a pretty great high concept that makes it somewhat unique in the current cinema landscape. What I mean by that is that we rarely get big budget dinosaur flicks aside from Jurassic Park, so that alone may make this one an enticing watch for those hungry for some Dino action.
Adam Driver has seen his star steadily increasing ever since playing Kylo Ren in the Star Wars sequel trilogy and could add a bit of star power to this film.
Finally, the trailers have done the job in explaining the basic premise while also promising that the movie delivers what it sets out to do.
With that said I’ve come to grow less confident about this one in recent weeks.
Cons:
Buzz has been surprisingly muted for this one in recent weeks with it becoming overshadowed by many of the other high profile releases this month. Doesn’t help that the studio waited until the last minute to lift the review embargo and thus far those haven’t been great.
While not entirely the same type of movie, 65 is still coming out the same day as Scream VI, another movie which looks to have horror elements and is aiming for a similar demographic. It has also garnered much more in the way of buzz.
Finally, there is the fact that original sci fi films like this don’t tend to hit it big and even though this could have broken out if treated with more fan fare it just feels like Sony is just dumping this one which is unfortunate.
Final thoughts:
Sadly I’m expecting 65 to be a bit of a financial dud, as it looks to release with very little in the way of buzz. I’m expecting a debut in the high single digits and it should finish with a total in the low to mid 20s. Maybe it could perform better overseas but that’s not a guaranteed.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $8 million
Domestic total: $24 million
Worldwide total: $62 million
It is unfortunate as I do root for origin concepts like these and it is the rare Dino movie releases by a major studio with an actual budget. Oh well, hopefully we could still get more of them even if this doesn’t totally pan out.
Holdover Business:
Now time to go over any notable holdover business.
Opening above most expectations (including mine) was Creed III which came out of the gate strong with a terrific $58 million haul. That is the biggest opening weekend of the Creed/Rocky franchise unadjusted for inflation and is reported to be the biggest opening for a sports movie. This a tremendous result as it shows just how popular this franchise and these characters (keep in mind, the movie accomplished this without Sylvester Stallone as Rocky) have become and it serves as a very strong start to Amazon’s proposes future of more theatrical investments. With strong word of mouth and an equally impressive $100 million worldwide opening, this one looks to be a very profitable venture.
Ant-Man and the Wasp Quantumania had another big tumble as it dropped 59.9% in its third weekend for a $12 million total. It now stands at $190 million and should crawl past $200 million soon. Globally it stands at $420 million and not only does it seem unlikely to pass Ant-Man and the Wasp globally, but it may not even pass the original ($519 million worldwide) as it is dropping fast. Given that this is a $200 million picture that was sold as the big kick off to phase 5 of the MCU, this is not a good result at all. While Marvel will likely recover, this definitely is not a good performance for them and shows that they may not be the indestructible kings of the blockbuster mountain they once were.
In other notable news, Cocaine Bear dropped 52% in its second weekend which is not bad for a movie like this and now stands at $44 million domestic. Jesus Revolution also posted a solid 46% drop as it cracked $30 million. Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village, which is essentially the last two episodes of season 2 and the first of season 3 combined posted $10 million again proving how valuable anime can be at the box office.
Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre finally hit screens and came in not so hot. It only grossed $3.1 million becoming the lowest wide release debut in Guy Ritchie’s career. Again Lionsgate dated this at the last minute and the amount of delays this movie faced certainly did not help. Still the one silver lining this that this will likely do well when it hits home media precisely because it premiered in theaters first.
Oh and Avatar: The Water passed $670 million domestic and $2.80 billion globally while Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is at $177 million domestic and $455 million globally.
Conclusion
And that just about wraps up this week’s edition of box office predictions! Next weeks sees the release of Shazam! Fury of the Gods, the first of four DC movies to come out this year. I look forward in talking about how it might do and if you have any thoughts about how these films will perform, please sound off down below in the comments. Until next time, see you guys later!
Review Time 