Welcome back everyone to a brand new box office prediction! This week we will be kicking off what looks to be a very busy March at the box office with several big movies hitting wide release. Things start this weekend with the release of the hotly anticipated Creed III as well as the long delayed Jason Statham actioner, Operation Fortune: Ruse de guerre. Without further ado, let’s get predicting!
Creed III
Adonis Creed returns to the big screen with actor Michael B. Jordan in the director’s chair this time. The latest film in the Rocky/Creed franchise has been greatly anticipated by many and this is also going to be a true test case as to whether Adonis can carry the franchise on his own without the aid of Sylvester Stallone’s Rocky Balboa. Can it score a knock out at the box office or will it leave the ring quickly? Let’s dig right in!
Pros:
This installment is going to benefit greatly from the goodwill of its predecessors. Announced as a follow up/spin off of the Rocky series, Creed came out in November of 2015 and nabbed strong reviews and great word of mouth to open to a 5 day Thanksgiving weekend haul of $42 million ($29 million over the three day) and end up with $109 million domestic and $173 million worldwide on a $35 million budget. Creed II opened in November of 2018 and was able to do even better thanks to strong reviews and audience reception as well as a strong hook (The son of Ivan Drago, who killed Apollo Creed, from Rocky IV fighting Adonis Creed). That film opened over 5-days with $56 million ($35 million over the 3-day) and legged out to $115 million domestic and $214 million globally on a $50 million budget. This franchise has proven to be a perfect example in how to re vitalize a long dormant franchise, to the point where it has become so successful and popular on its own terms.
Reviews for this one have been very strong with the consensus being that it is a great first impression from Michael B. Jordan as a director and that it is yet another compelling sports drama with phenomenal boxing matches and strong character work. If audience word of mouth is as good as hoped, there is potential for a great over performance.
Not only are Michael B. Jordan and Tess Thompson reprising their roles from the previous films, but they will be joined by Jonathan Majors, who has been having quite the moment recently with his big screen debut as Kang the Conqueror in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania as well as his much buzzed about performance in the film, Magazine Dreams, which premiered at Sundance in January and looks to be released later this year by Searchlight. Thus he is something of a solid added value element as the antagonist of the feature.
Finally, even though March looks to be ridiculously packed, Creed III might be able to hold its own accordingly as it isn’t a big budget action tentpole and thus it might be able to avoid a lot overlap between itself and films like Shazam! Fury of the Gods and Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves.
So yeah while there may be couple of minor concerns (more on that below), I have a lot of confidence in Creed III and I would not be surprised if it ends up surpassing a lot of expectations (my own included).
Cons:
I think the most apparent factor working slightly against this one is the absence of Sylvester Stallone’s Rocky Balboa who served as the title character’s mentor in the previous two films. This may decrease interest among a number of older moviegoers who showed up to the previous films because of his involvement, but I think Adonis has shown that he himself is a huge draw as a marquee characters and that people will still show up even if it is just him.
One last point I want to touch upon is the fact that the budget for this movie is reported to be around $75 million which is an uptick from the last one. My biggest concern with this is while domestically it should be fine, I’m more concerned with its global total as Creed has proven to be a very domestic slanted franchise when it comes to box office and it is a bit uncertain to predict how movies will do overseas in the Pandemic era (certain territories not being involved, exchange rate values decreasing, etc.). Still if word of mouth is very good, then it might be able to pull its weight outside of the U.S. as well.
Final thoughts:
In all, I’m expecting very good things from Creed III as it seems everything has been going right for it so far with strong reviews, the marketing firing on all cylinders, huge buzz, and a lot of goodwill from the other films. I’m think it has a shot of opening close to $50 million and I think legs could be decent as well. Overseas is a bit of a question mark but I think it can make just enough to become the biggest earner in the franchise.
Here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $45 million
Domestic total: $128 million
Worldwide total: $220 million
Lots of potential for this one to go above and beyond. Heck, it could very well do better than I’m expecting it to do, although if it ends up grossing closer to the other two, that also would be nothing to be ashamed of, and again this is one franchise revival that has truly excelled to the point where it is one of those franchises whose biggest selling point is that it will deliver a worthwhile movie.
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre
Next up we have a title that has taken a long time to hit American cinemas with this Guy Ritchie directed spy action comedy. It was originally set for January of last year, but then got delayed to March, and then got taken off of the release schedule entirely for a couple of reported reasons (the studio STX going through some financial troubles, the film being edited to get rid of references to Ukrainian gangsters, etc.) and it remained that way for a very long time until just a couple of weeks ago when Lionsgate got domestic distribution rights it was announced for this weekend, making this a very last minute edition to the release calendar. Will it be worth the wait from a financial perspective or is this a case of being way too late to make an impact? let’s dig right in!
Pros:
Guy Ritchie is one of those directors who may not be a marquee name, but he can actually be a pretty solid draw, if the film is budgeted accordingly. Just before the Pandemic he had The Gentlemen make $115 million global on a $22 million budget and even when theaters were starting to get back on their feet, he had Wrath of Man which made $103 million globally on a $40 million (with presumably strong home media sales), which is not bad for a violent and somber R-rated action movie where tons of major characters get killed. So he is definitely someone who can get certain people in the seats.
This one also benefits from a stacked cast which includes the likes of Jason Statham, Aubrey Plaza, Cary Elwes, Bugsy Malone, Josh Hartnett, and Hugh Grant. While they may not be huge draws on their own (Statham is a great added value element for established franchises and ensemble films, but he his solo actioners tend to play soft at the box office), I feel like there is value in seeing them all together in a spy action film like this.
Finally, I will give Lionsgate that despite such a limited marketing window, they have been able to do a decent enough job in marketing the film as I have been seeing a number of ads in recent weeks and the film has actually already played in a couple of markets overseas these past few weeks, making $30 million internationally thus far.
That being said, I feel much less confident in this film’s prospects than I would have been had it released as planned.
Cons:
The fact that the film has been been off of the theatrical radar for so long that I’m not sure if there’s that much interest anymore. If the film had released last year, then I think it might have had the potential to at least do Wrath of Man numbers as it is selling itself as something more in line with The Gentlemen (a more “fun” movie) versus that film. Now there really isn’t a whole lot of buzz and it just seems like a case of much of the interest just fading over time to the point where releasing it now, will likely do it little favors.
Finally, the budget for this one is reported to be $50 million which means that this film has more of an uphill battle to climb in order to be profitable theatrically as frankly I just don’t see it making much more in the States to increase its global total by that much.
Final thoughts:
In the end, I’m not expecting a whole lot from Operation Fortune as it looks to come and go at the box office, which is a shame as I feel this could have done fairly decently if it had released sooner and/or had a higher profile.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $5 million
Domestic total: $14 million
Worldwide total: $45 million
Still, it could still perform decently when it hits home media and Guy Ritchie likely isn’t to suffer too much if this film fails to hit as he proving to be a very active filmmaker at the moment with his next film, The Covenant, set for April of this year.
Holdover Business:
Now let’s take a look at ant notable business from last weekend, starting with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania which topped the box office for a second weekend in a row, however that may be the only good news for that film.
It made $31 million compared $106 million in its opening weekend, which is a frankly horrendous 69.9% second weekend drop. That is not only the biggest second weekend drop for the MCU, but also the second biggest second weekend drop for a movie that opened over $100 million behind Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part II which dropped 72% (however that was coming off of a $169 million opening, a record at the time, and it still ended up being the biggest of the franchise). The movie now stands at just over $170 million and while it may still be able to get to Ant-Man and the Wasp’s $216 million domestic total, it doesn’t seem like it will out gross it by much, and at the rate its going globally (should be over $370 million now) and with China being a non starters (it should top out at $40 million compared to the over $100 million totals of the previous two films), I don’t think it will out gross that film’s $622 million total. Now Marvel should be fine as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is likely to be huge no matter what, but I think this does show that their films are starting to become a bit more fan driven and that it may have been a mistake to sell this one as a big important chapter in the MCU as that goes against what people like the Ant-Man films as.
In better news, we had two over performances this weekend from the two new releases. First there’s Cocaine Bear which opened to $23 million (above what many including I predicted… although frankly I’m kicking myself for not predicting an over performance as I had a feeling it would). This is once again a triumph for Universal as they have shown through the likes of Violent Night, M3GAN, and now this that they can turn these simple, wacky premises into solid hits through strong marketing and awareness. With word of mouth being decent, this one could leg out decently as there isn’t anything else quite like it in the marketplace.
We also had Jesus Revolution which did much better than I expected (I predicted $7 million) as it opened with $15 million, and had a lot of walk up business throughout the weekend. I was a bit unsure if this type of faith based movie could still pull in the numbers they did before Covid, but it looks like that is still the case. Word of mouth among audiences is fantastic (it scored an A+ from Cinemascore) and it looks like this one might be able to leg out throughout the coming weeks.
In other tid bits, Avatar: The Way of Water nears $670 million domestic and is at $2.268 billion, while Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is at $174 million and looks to pass the domestic totals of The Boss Baby, How to Train Your Dragon 2, and Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa very soon. Globally it nears $450 million. Meanwhile 80 for Brady looks to top out around $40 million (about in line with what I predicted), while Knock at the Cabin nears $35 million (below what I expected, but not terrible given the low budget.
Conclusion:
And that just about wraps up this weekend’s edition of box office predictions! I’ll be back next week to take a look at the sixth installment in the Scream franchise with Scream VI, as well as the Adam Driver Dinosaur thriller, 65. In the meantime, feel free to sound off down below in the comments and share how you think Creed III will do. Until next time, see you guys later!
Review Time 