Welcome back everyone to a new edition of box office predictions! This week we have two new films hitting wide release and both hope to counter program the latest MCU blockbuster in its second weekend. They would be the buzzy horror comedy, Cocaine Bear, and the faith based flick, Jesus Revolution. Without further ado, let’s get predicting!
Cocaine Bear
Let’s start by talking about a film that got everybody talking and laughing when the trailer first dropped back in December. Cocaine Bear is the latest film from director, Elizabeth Banks, and is yet another attempt from Universal, after last month’s M3GAN, to make one of their movies go viral by just the concept alone. Will it end up going higher than the titular bear, or will this end up being more talked about online? Let’s dig right in!
Pros:
As I mentioned above, when the first trailer debut back in December it garnered so much attention just from the sheer absurdity of the premise and the fact that it looked like a wild time. Thus, there is already a built in audience that is going to check this one out, just out of sheer curiosity.
The marketing campaign has also been prevalent these past couple of months, with the movie getting some attention at the Super Bowl which will definitely raise audience awareness. Plus unlike something like Knock at the Cabin, this is a high concept film that is being sold as a fun time.
reviews seem to be very positive on this one with many critics finding it to be a fun time at the movies and that it absolutely delivers what one would want from a movie called Cocaine Bear.
Finally Universal is clearly hoping that this can achieve a level of success similar to last December’s Violent Night. That David Harbour Santa Claus action comedy was able to capitalize on its bonkers premise and strong marketing campaign to over perform expectations with a $13 million opening and then leg out to $49 million domestic and $75 million worldwide on a $20 million budget. Assuming that the budget on this one wasn’t too high then I can see this achieving a similar level of success if the buzz continues to grow throughout its run.
So Cocaine Bear definitely has a lot of potential to do well and I’m expecting solid grosses. However there are also some things that could lead to an underperformance.
Cons:
Well there is always the possibility that the concept might be too out there for some audiences and I’m not sure how successful this will be in attracting those beyond the curious.
Also for those using M3GAN as a comparison point, I’d argue that that was not only a more appealing premise, but also that film was rated PG-13 and this was able to have a broader appeal. Cocaine Bear is R-rated and more likely to skew a tad older, meaning it won’t have that same appeal.
Finally there is the possibility that this could end up being one of those movies that the internet ends up hyping up so much, but then when the film comes out, general audiences don’t show up. An infamous example is Snakes on a Plane, which was marketed as this would be cult classic in the making but then ended up only grossing $62 million globally on a $33 million budget, despite so much publicity on how “so bad its good” it was. There are plenty of other instances similar and it is something to keep in mind when discussing this film’s prospects.
Final thoughts:
In all I’m expecting a decent showing from Cocaine Bear as I think there is enough curiosity for it to get audiences in the theaters. It might be a little fan driven but I think kegs could be fine since there really isn’t anything like it in the marketplace. Overseas is a big question mark as Violent Night didn’t exactly do huge numbers, but we’ll see.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $16 million
Domestic total: $47 million
Worldwide total: $84 million
This is honestly a hard one to predict as it could go either way. Still I’m rooting for it as I really do admire Universal for taking a chance on these sort of wacky ideas.
Jesus Revolution
Next we will quickly look at a smaller release that is yet another faith based film that is based off of a book of the same name set during the Jesus Movement in the 1970s. Well it end up proving to be a surprise sleeper or will this end up falling short instead. Let’s dig right in!
Pros:
The faith Based genre is one that has seen a good deal of success prior to Covid. Movies like Heaven is for Real, Miracles from Heaven, The Shack, I Can Only Imagine, Breakthrough, and more have done very good business domestically and appeal greatly to certain demographics that tend to show up when these come out. Plus just like those films I mentioned this is being sold as a hopeful and inspirational film which could definitely aid this film in regards to word of mouth.
Also benefitting this film is that despite not having much on the way of marketing beyond conventional means, these types of films tend to target specific demographics and are able to get by without having to have so much extreme marketing.
So yeah this film could do well enough based off of those factors alone, but there are also a couple of things to keep in mind.
Cons:
It’s been a while since we’ve had one of these films break out to ant huge degree. Sony tried with Father Stu last year and that only made $20 million domestic (still good since the budget was $4 million, but not quite as big of a gross as I assume the studio would have liked). And that had a bigger profile and cast (aside from Kelsey Grammar, this one doesn’t quite have any recognizable names).
These movies tend to not make much at all overseas so this one is going to have rely almost solely on its domestic grosses to make money in theatrical.
Final thoughts:
In all I’m not expecting anything Grand from Jesus Revolution, but it could end up being pretty leggy and doing decently for the type of film it is (well in the States at least).
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $7 million
Domestic total: $24 million
Worldwide total: $25 million
So yeah not a barn burner, but should do fine, especially when you factor in likely strong home media sales.
Holdover Business:
Let’s now take a look at any notable business from this past weekend.
Easily coming in 1st place was Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania which debuted with $106 million over the fri-Sunday frame of a 4-day holiday (the 4-day number is $120 million). That is about in line with what I predicted ($108 million) and is a good debut, especially when one looks at this as an Ant-Man film (a 41% increase from the $75 million debut of Ant-Man and the Wasp back in 2018). However reviews are very mixed and audience word of mouth doesn’t seem that enthusiastic (it is the 2nd film in MCU history to ever get a B cinemascore grade… which isn’t great for a big blockbuster) so I’m not feeling too confident in post debut legs. It might benefit from a lack of demographic competition until Shazam! Fury of the Gods, but even then a second weekend drop of over 60% seems inevitable. Still it should be over $260 million as of this writing (including a disappointing $19 million debut in China) and we’ll see what happens.
Continuing to hold well are Avatar: The Way of Water and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. The former is at $660 million and is now the 9th biggest domestic earner, while global stands at $2.248 billion, as it is now the third biggest global grosser of all time. The latter is now at $168 million domestic and $425 million worldwide. It has actually now passed Black Adam domestically to become the tenth biggest grosses in the States.
Meanwhile Warner Bros. Actually expanded the theater count of Magic Mike’s Last Dance to over 3,000 theaters and the film was able have a solid second weekend drop of 34% as it now nears $20 million domestic and $39 million global. Not a barn burner by any means but at least WB gave this one a shot in theater. Also Knock at the Cabin actually came back into the top 5 and was able to ease in around 26% as it crossed $30 million domestic and it nears $50 million global. 80 for Brady also held well as it nears $35 million domestic. Oh and apparently Liam Neeson had a new movie that opened under the radar in over 2,000 theaters with Marlowe. The poorly reviewed mystery only wanted over $2 million over its 5 day frame for what that’s worth.
Conclusion:
And that just about wraps up this weekend’s edition of box office predictions! Next weekend is going to be a good one as it is the kick off to what is looking to be a very busy March at the box office as we have the debuts of Creed III and the Jason Statham actioner, Operation Fortune: Rouse De Gurre. I look forward in covering this month and hope you all enjoyed this latest prediction. Please feel free to leave any thoughts down below in the comments! Until next time, see you guys later!
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