Welcome back everyone to my latest box office prediction! While we may not have anything on tap for this weekend on the level of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (more on how that film did later on), we still do have two fairly high profile new films going into wide release which is more than enough for me! For this coming weekend we have the release of the horror/thriller/comedy, The Menu, and the dramatic biography, She Said hitting the multiplexes. How do I expect them to do? Well let’s find out! Without further ado, let’s get predicting!
The Menu
Let’s kick things off with The Menu, which looks to be a combination of different genres as teased by the marketing. The film is being distributed by Searchlight Pictures (which is now a part of the Disney umbrella) and looks to provide audiences with some thrills heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. Will it cook up some meaty numbers or will it’s grosses end up being hard to swallow? Let’s dig right in!
Pros:
The horror genre has been having quite the moment this year with original films (or at least original in the eyes of the general masses) like The Black Phone, Smile, Barbarian, and Terrifier 2 among others pulling in strong grosses and massive buzz among the horror community. The fact that The Menu is also selling its darkly comedic tone could help it stand out from the pack as well.
Speaking of buzz, The Menu has generated quite a bit of it ever since it premiered at TIFF in September with reactions being mostly positive with many critics finding it to be a very fun time that also has a lot on its mind. The marketing has also made sure to emphasize these accolades as well as making the movie look fun which could help bring audiences into the theater.
Also adding to the film’s appeal is the fact that it has a high profile cast fronting it. We’ve got the likes Anya Taylor-Joy, Nicolas Hoult, and Ralph Fiennes, all of whom are well liked performers that add a little more prestige to the picture in a way.
Lastly, the film has the advantage of opening right before the Thanksgiving holiday. This can help it achieve some solid weekday grosses even if the opening isn’t the highest. It can also serve as a solid counter programming choice to those who aren’t interested in checking out the big blockbusters.
So this is one that can definitely end up exceeding expectations if all goes to plan as on paper it could absolutely be a buzzy little hit on the level of Barbarian, especially if it has a reasonable budget. However there are some other things to keep in mind as well.
Cons:
While the marketing has made sure to focus on the thrills and the comedy, I’m not sure how much appeal this will have behind the converted. There is the possibility that this may look too weird or wacky for many audiences’ tastes and I’m not sure how crowd pleasing it will be. Granted I’m sure those who are interested will be a big enough audience to overcome that, but it’s just something to think about when discussing staying power.
While the cast is full of well liked talent, none of them are exactly butts in seats movie stars. People may love Anya Taylor-Joy as Beth in The Queen’s Gambit, but that didn’t do much for Last Night in Soho. Many people probably recognize Ralph Fiennes from a number of projects (Harry Potter, the Grand Budapest Hotel, the recent James Bond films), however that didn’t make interest in a Kingsman prequel (The King’s Man) any higher than it was. Talented as they may, their names alone won’t be enough to sell a movie.
While not exactly the same movie, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, another quirky all star mystery (although a different kind if mystery) will be getting a brief theatrical run next week before it hits Netflix in December. The audience for both of these could over lap a bit, although this is a minor point as it’s not like Glass Onion is going extremely wide and general audiences might just wait for Netflix instead.
Final thoughts:
In all I’m expecting The Menu to fare quite well this weekend as I feel the audience is there for it and it could very well end up being another buzzy horror hit. I think a fair comparison point would be the Ready or Not which was also a 20th Century Studios release and had a similar tone. That movie topped out at $28 million domestic from an $8 million opening and $57 million worldwide. Great on a mere $6 million budget. I think the The Menu will do slightly better as I think it’ll open with $10 million. If it’s well liked by general audiences, then I think it will leg out to $35 million stateside. Not sure how much appeal this will have overseas, but let’s just say somewhere close to Ready or Not.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $10 million
Domestic total: $35 million
Worldwide total: $63 million
Could it possibly go higher? Or will it end up not making much at all? Either scenario is possible, but I have a good feeling about this one. It just seems like the type of title that would generate buzz among certain audiences and I hope it does break out. No matter how it does though, it seems likely to get some sort of following that comes to appreciate it more over time.
She Said
The other big release for this weekend is one that has been discussed as a potential awards contender, She Said. It is essentially a re telling of how Harvey Weinstein was taken down by New York Times journalists. Will it live up to much of the online conversation or will this be a case of a movie being talked about a lot, but then very few end up seeing theatrically? Let’s jump right in!
Pros:
As I mentioned the film has some awards season buzz around it that could help grab people’s attention. Reviews have also been positive with the consensus being that the movie works as a compelling and well acted journalist drama, not dissimilar to the 2015 best picture winner, Spotlight.
Like The Menu, this looks to serve as counter programming alongside the heavy hitters, albeit I expect this film to skew a good bit older than that one. It will also have the advantage of having potentially strong weekday grosses due to opening very close to the Thanksgiving holiday.
However, this is not a film that I think will make much of a dent at the box office for a number of reasons.
Cons:
Adult skewing dramas have been having a tough break for while at the box office a lot of audience members in the older demographic either being hesitant to go back to the theaters or only going when it’s something that looks appealing to them (like Top Gun: Maverick or Elvis). A film about the Harvey Weinstein scandal doesn’t exactly scream “a fun time at the theaters” as while is very important subject matter, it also isn’t the most comfortable or for a number of movie goers, the most appealing.
While the cast here is immensely talented (Zoe Kazan, Carey Mulligan, Ashley Judd, etc.), not one of these names are remotely a draw unto themselves. Sure, Ashley Judd has been involved in a number of hits throughout her career and Carey Mulligan did receive enormous acclaim for her lead performance in Promising Young Woman, but I still don’t think that will help this movie all that much. I mean, Bombshell, which had a much more high profile cast could only get to $31 million in the States and $61 million global on a $32 million budget.
We are also far away from the times when a movie like Spotlight could get to $45 million domestic and $98 million worldwide due to sheer awards buzz and word of mouth. Heck even numbers on par with State of Play back in 2009 ($37 million domestic and $88 million worldwide) seem like a pipe dream. Again even before the pandemic, the people who went to go see these types of films in theaters have now migrated to streaming instead.
Finally, the movie is said to cost $32 million which I do think is a bit much for a serious drama like this and I simply don’t see the film pulling in the types of numbers that it would need to re coup that.
Final thoughts:
As you can see, I’m expecting very little from She Said as while it looks like a potentially compelling drama, I just don’t see it being a movie audiences will rush out to see in theaters given the subject matter and the lack of known to the masses names on the marquee. This looks to come and go in the theatrical market as it will most likely debut on PVOD after the first 17 days of release. I expect a performance in line with other ridiculously low level grossers distributed by Universal (think The 355, Firestarter, Bros, etc.) so an opening around $3 million and a total close to $9 million. Overseas are unlikely to be all that big so I expect around $16 million worldwide.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $3 million
Domestic total: $9 million
Worldwide total: $16 million
I would love to be wrong about this one as I do think the movie looks very interesting and I would like for more of it’s ilk to still get made in theater. However, this just screams like a movie that seems destined to get a lot of articles written about it but little in the way of eyeballs actually viewing it on the silver screen.
Holdover Business:
Let’s now discuss the highlights of last weekend’s box office, starting with the record breaking debut of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.
The highly anticipated MCU sequel ended up grossing $181 million in it’s first three days. It has overtaken The Hunger Games: Catching Fire to become the biggest opening weekend for the month of November and is the second biggest of the year behind only the $187 million earned by Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. It is also the seventh biggest MCU opening between that film and Captain America: Civil War ($179 million) as well as the thirteenth biggest of all time right between Civil War and Incredibles 2 ($182 million).
To put it in simple terms, this is a very strong result for the movie. Sure, it may be the second MCU sequel ever since Avengers: Age of Ultron to not out earn it’s predecessor, but when the first movie was such a phenomenon, a come down was only expected. Plus, while it did make a bit less than I predicted ($194 million) it wasn’t too too far off from it and it’s honestly ended up opening about as well as I would have expected if you had asked me at the beginning of the year. It’s just that the trailers were so good that they made me bet even higher on the film. Where it goes from here is an open question. While it is likely to have a fairly steep second weekend drop due to the large opening and the fact that it’s opening weekend did not lead into Thanksgiving weekend, I do think it will be able to maintain solid holds after that being the last big tentpole until Avatar: The Way of Water. Plus unlike Doctor Strange 2, audiences seem to be responding to this one more positively which will definitely help it in the long run. Globally it opened with $331 million, meaning it is likely to be just as domestic skewing the original was. Can it get to $500 million domestic or $1 billion global? It’s too soon to tell, but nonetheless this is a fantastic start!
Black Adam was actually able to not collapse as bad as many feared it would in it’s fourth weekend. It dropped 55% compared to Shazam’s 66% decrease in weekend four. It seems like positive word of mouth among audiences is helping this one maintain solid staying power. Also helps that it is different Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and could have been seen as a pallete cleanser by those who found the sequel to be too much of an emotional viewing. Domestically it now stands at $152 million, while the global tally is $353 million.
Meanwhile Ticket to Paradise continues to hold exceptionally well now at $57 million in the states and $151 million worldwide, while Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile actually jumped back into the top 5 this weekend after an astounding increase last weekend. It is now at $41 million in the States ($72 million global) with one more weekend before Disney’s Strange World comes to hopefully bring in the family crowd. Also, Smile just refuses to slow down, now passed Bullet Train domestically ($103 million) to become the year’s second biggest R-rated grosser in the states behind Jordan Peele’s Nope. Globally it stands at $210 million.
One Piece Film: Red tumbled an expected 84% in it’s second weekend and now stands at $12 million. Again these anime titles tend to be one weekend wonders. Still it’s made over $160 million worldwide so anything from the States is just a cherry on top. In terms of potential awards contenders only The Banshees of Inisherin grossed over $1 million this pas weekend bringing it’s total up to $5 million.
Also Steven Spielberg’s latest, The Fabelmans opened in 4 theaters this past weekend grossing $161,579 for a $40,494 per theater average. That was good enough for the 5th biggest PTA of the year and it will be expanding into more theaters next week in time for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Conclusion:
That just about wraps up this weekend’s edition of box office predictions! Looking at the week to come, we’ve got the release of Strange World, the latest film from Walt Disney Animation Studios, one that I do have a lot to say regarding it’s box office potential. We’ve also got the Jonathan Majors/Glen Powell Korean war actioner, Devotion, which has gotten solid buzz ever since premiering at TIFF in September as well as wider expansions for The Fabelmans and the latest film from Luca Guadagnino, Bones and All. I am looking forward to all of these as well as to how they well do over this holiday break. I’ll be back next week covering how I think Strange World and Devotion will do as well as checking how The Menu and She Said do a well as how Black Panther: Wakanda Forever fares in it’s second weekend. Feel free to sound off in the comments how you guys think these films will do. As always, see you guys next time!
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