Welcome back everybody to my latest box office prediction! I may have skipped out last week due to the lack of major wide releases (although in hindsight, I guess I could’ve talked about One Piece Film: Red) but I’m back for this one as we have just one new wide release, but it’s a very big one. This weekend, Disney and Marvel will unleash Black Panther: Wakanda Forever into theaters, the sequel to one of their very biggest releases ever. Now I have a lot to say regarding this film and how well it could do as this has been one where my expectations for it have been changing throughout the entire year. So without further ado, let’s get predicting!
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The MCU returns to the big screen for the third time this year and they are looking to close it out in a big way with this one, which has been the topic of much discussion ever since the tragic passing of Chadwick Boseman, who played T’Challa, in late 2020. Now a sequel to Black Panther was inevitable and was/is likely to be huge. The question now, especially given all that has transpired since that groundbreaking hit is how big will it be? That right there is going to be tricky to predict, but I’m going to do my best! Let’s first start off with what this film has going for it!
Pros:
To start with the obvious, this is the MCU we are talking about, the most popular film franchise among general audiences at the moment. While not always a guaranteed to strike a massive hit every time out as we saw with Eternals last year, it seems that follow ups involving established characters who are popular are still safe bets. Despite what the internet might lead you to believe both of their 2022 releases did strong business. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness did extremely well for a Doctor Strange sequel grossing $955 million worldwide compared to $677 million for Doctor Strange and that is without playing in China and Russia (if had played in those territories, chances are it would have cracked $1 billion). Meanwhile Thor: Love and Thunder became the biggest Thor film domestically and grossed $760 million worldwide despite not being nearly as well received or buzzy as Thor: Ragnarok. Again had it played in those two aforementioned markets it likely would have passed or gotten very near Thor: Ragnarok’s $853 million cume. Various pre release expectations aside, these performances shows that the brand is still strong and that audiences are still showing up.
Not only is it a new installment in the MCU though. It is a follow up to one of the most popular and successful films in the franchise. The original Black Panther was an absolute phenomenon when it released back in 2018, as it blew past any and all pre release expectations, opening with $202 million over the fri-sun portion of a $242 million 4 day Presidents Day debut. That fri-sun number is the eighth biggest domestic opening weekend of all time and it had abnormally strong staying power for a big comic book movie, legging out to $700 million domestic and $1.346 billion globally. Credit rave reviews, white hot buzz, superb word of mouth from audiences, the character being well liked through his introduction in Captain America: Civil War, and the fact that it was seen as a huge representational milestone for the African American community being the first big budget super hero (or really big budget in general) movie with a pre dominantly African American cast. I myself vividly remember the enormous hype surrounding the feature as it really was a zeitgeist capturing event that was able to attract even those who weren’t really into the MCU. That is a key advantage this franchise has over others in the MCU, it is one that appeals to more than just the converted (I mean aside from Spider-Man: No Way Home, no other non Avengers Marvel flick has come close to what Black Panther made in the states).
On a similar note, one huge reason the film struck a chord with so many people was it’s compelling ensemble cast of characters. With one obvious exception (more on that later), almost every surviving character from the original is back with their respective actors reprising, most notably Lupita Nyong’o as Nakia, Danai Gurrira as Okoye Letitia Wright as Shuri, Winston Duke as M’Baku, and Angela Bassett as Queen Ramonda. Not only that but the movie also introduces some exciting newcomers as this is the big screen debut for both Namor the Sub Mariner (played by Tenoch Huerta) and Riri Williams AKA Ironheart (Dominique Thorne), with the latter set to get her own Disney+ series next year. Both of these serve as strong added value elements for fans of the comics who will undoubtedly be interested in seeing what roles they play in the story.
The film has been generating very strong buzz in recent months ever since the first trailer premiered to a rapturous response at San Diego Comic Con with many doubts about how the film would work without it’s lead character being put at ease. Recent marketing materials continue to generate chatter, most of which is positive, as the film is being sold as both a spectacular looking action drama with high stakes and an emotionally driven story. Heck, these trailers have been so good that I have become much more confident in this film than I was at the beginning of the year, to the point where at one point I was pretty confident in this out grossing the first!
Adding to that, the reviews published thus far have been very strong with many stating that the film works as not only an exciting action epic, but also a powerful and moving tribute to Chadwick Boseman. This definitely helps in re assuring audiences that they are in for a worthy follow up and it seems this won’t get the same polarizing reception that both prior MCU films received this year.
Also in this movie’s favor is that the MCU has a great track record when it comes to sequels. How great? Well, let’s dig into those numbers shall we? For this case we will be looking at specifically part 2 installments in the MCU sub franchises:
- All the way back in 2010, despite lesser reviews, Iron Man 2 posted a $128 million opening weekend which was a 30% increase from Iron Man’s $98 million debut in 2008. This was largely because of the goodwill achieved by the buzzy and beloved first entry. Legs weren’t as strong though as it finished with $312 million domestically compared to $319 million for the original. It did make a bit more overseas however to make $623 million global, a 6% increase from $585 million for Iron Man.
- In 2013 Thor: The Dark World opened to $85 million compared to $65 million for Thor in 2011, another over under 30% increase between openings. Like Iron Man 2, it was more front loaded than it’s predecessor in the States, grossing $206 million, yet that is still a 12% increase from Thor’s $181 million cume. Globally it made $644 million, an increase of 43% from the $449 million made by Thor. Considering that it is considered by many to be one of the lesser entries in the series, this was very impressive and an indication that the character’s popularity had only increased thanks to his role in The Avengers a year earlier.
- Captain America: The Winter Soldier opened to $95 million in April 2014, a 46% increase from the $65 million earned by Captain America: The First Avenger on it’s opening weekend back in 2011. It topped out at $259 million compared to $176 million for First Avenger and it jumped a whopping 93% worldwide (from $370 million to $714 million for Winter Soldier). Again credit the increased popularity of Steve Rogers after The Avengers, stellar reviews, and the fact that it was sold as an important entry in the MCU storyline with status quo shattering changes promised.
- Coming out nearly 3 years after it’s record breaking predecessor, Avengers: Age of Ultron didn’t quite top the $207 million opening of The Avengers (which at the time held the record for the biggest opening weekend until Jurassic World snatched it which funny enough came out a month after Age of Ultron) nor that film’s $623 million domestic total. However, it still posted a fantastic $191 million launch (the 2nd biggest debut at the time and a mere 7% decrease) and while it was unsurprisingly not as leggy as the first (finished with $459 million) domestically, it actually made more overseas which resulted in a $1.402 billion worldwide gross. Insane that people were calling this a disappointment back then.
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was a great example of a follow up capitalizing on the surprise success of the beloved original and reaping the rewards. It jumped 55% from the original’s $94 million debut for an $146 million opening. While not as leggy, it ended with $389 million compared to $333 million for the original which was still a great result for the heavily anticipated sequel. The overseas jump wasn’t quite as big, but the film still got to $863 million versus $773 million for the first.
- While overshadowed that same year by the record crushers that were Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War, Ant-Man and the Wasp was still able to post a solid performance of it’s own. It opened with $75 million which was a 32% increase from the $57 million debut of Ant-Man. It took a harsh drop of 61.6% in it’s second weekend (the second biggest 2nd weekend drop for an MCU film at the time behind Spider-Man: Homecoming) but then was able to recover and get to $216 million, which was more than the $180 million earned by it’s predecessor. Globally it made $622 million, again more than the $518 million Ant-Man grossed although in both cases China was a big benefactor to them (the first made $105 million there while the second got to $121 million).
- Then there is Spider-Man: Far From Home which has some asterisks in regards to its opening. If you just look at the fri-sun gross (which is the gross that is counted as the opening weekend) you will see that it made $92 million compared to $117 million for Spider-Man: Homecoming. However, the movie opened on a Tuesday so it had already made a substantial amount of money before then (around $185 million by Sunday). If it had had a more conventional roll out, it most certainly would have had a higher opening than Homecoming. Still hard to complain about a $390 million domestic total (Homecoming made $334 million) and a $1.31 billion global gross (Homecoming made $880 million). Thank the popularity of Tom Holland’s take on the character and the fact that it was sold as a follow up to Avengers: Endgame.
- The most recent MCU part two would be Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness which was able to make up for the long wait time between installments thanks to the titular character gaining popularity due to key appearances in other MCU projects like the last two Avengers movies and Spider-Man: No Way Home and how it was sold as an important piece of the MCU puzzle with how it would further explore the multiverse. Cue an $187 million opening which was a staggering 120% increase from Doctor Strange’s $85 million debut and an eventual $411 million domestically (more on the film’s legs later on) and $955 million globally.
As you can see with the exception of Avengers: Age of Ultron, each of these films opened higher than their respective predecessors and had a bigger global gross. In terms of domestic totals only the aforementioned Avengers sequel and Iron Man 2 made less, but both were still huge hits nonetheless. Now that doesn’t mean Wakanda Forever has to play like the majority of these films and out open the first film in order to be considered a smash, but it is something to keep in mind when looking at it’s prospects. All I’m saying is that I would not be totally shocked if that happens given the MCU’s impressive streak when it comes to successful follow ups.
In terms of competition, barring an overperformance from Disney’s Strange World over the Thanksgiving holiday, it’ll pretty much be the biggest game in town for a couple of weeks. It’s the only big four quadrant tentpole releasing between now and Avatar: The Way of Water on December 16th, with everything else (Devotion, The Fabelmans, Violent Night, etc.) counter programming to older audiences. Couple that in with a presumably positive audience reception and I can see this one sticking around for a while.
Finally, as alluded to many times, we have to address the elephant in the room which is the fact that the star of the original is sadly no longer with us. Chadwick Boseman was so iconic in that role which meant so much to so many people that there are going to be plenty that will be curious to see how this movie will go about addressing his passing and how it will pay tribute. There are also many who are curious to see who will take up the mantle of the Black Panther as the trailer’s have heavily teased a new face behind the mask. To many this is going to be an emotionally cathartic experience as it’s essentially a way of saying goodbye to Chadwick Boseman and I honestly would not be surprised if that leads to this opening higher than I think it would have if he were still with us leading a more conventional follow up.
As you can see I’m expecting huge things from this movie as it clearly has a lot going for it. I mean this is the type of movie that is just destined to hit it big no matter what. That being said, there are some things to keep in mind that may temper expectations just a bit.
Cons:
While the original Black Panther was a huge hit all around it was one of the rare big blockbusters to make more domestically than overseas. In terms of movies that earned over $1 billion it stands alongside The Dark Knight and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story as films that made earned more money from the United States and Canada. Granted, $647 million outside of the U.S. is still a great number by any stretch of the imagination and it just goes to show how much it insanely overperformed domestically. However it does show that this is a franchise that may skew a little more towards domestic than other MCU franchises. Also $105 million of that gross came from China, a market Wakanda Forever seems unlikely to play in.
One concerning trend regarding the performances of the movies of Phase 4 of the MCU is that they have been more front loaded than is usually the case for the series. With the exception of Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings which dropped a better than usual for Marvel 54% in it’s 2nd weekend, every other film released in this phase has dropped between 62-67% in their subsequent weekend. Granted there are things to keep in mind:
- Black Widow was released day and date on Disney+ Premiere access which undoubtedly bit into it’s gross and affected it’s staying power as it could only muster a 2.3x multiplier from an $80 million debut for a $183 million finish (still a solid gross on a Covid curve).
- Eternals also earned 2.3x it’s $71 million opening for $164 million (the second lowest gross for an MCU movie unadjusted for inflation behind The Incredible Hulk), largely because of mixed to negative reviews and extremely divisive word of mouth.
- Spider-Man: No Way Home’s second Friday landed on Christmas Eve which is known for not being a huge money making day for theaters so that depressed it’s second weekend gross a bit. However thanks to superb word of mouth, a lack of competition for the next month, and massive hype, it was able to have great post 2nd weekend holds to earn a 3.1x multiplier for $804 million from a $260 million opening.
- Coming back to Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, it stands as the most front loaded MCU movie with a 2.2x multiplier. Again the movie was very divisive among fans with many feeling that it failed to deliver what they were expecting (status quo shattering events, a plethora of cameos, etc.). Didn’t help that it is among the least family friendly MCU films.
- Thor: Love and Thunder was once again struck by a mixed reception from critics and audiences with many feeling that it failed to capture the magic of Thor Ragnarok. However it was able to recover a bit from the 67% drop thanks to it being the last big four quadrant fantasy tentpole of the Summer, getting to $343 million from a $144 million opening, a 2.4x multiplier.
Now I’m not saying that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will follow a similar trajectory (I mean it looks to be one of the better received films in this phase). It is just something keep in mind as it seems like the franchise is becoming more fan driven than ever as of late.
Like I mentioned before, the original Black Panther was such a sensation that is still talked about to this day. Which means it would be difficult for any sequel to reach that same level of success as that sort of lightning in a bottle success is difficult to repeat on the next go around. We have seen this happen with many follow ups to buzzy and phenomenally successful predecessors like The Dark Knight, Skyfall, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Jurassic World, The Avengers, Star Trek (2009) and so many more not quite reaching those same heights (well domestically at least), but still being successful nonetheless. It’s pretty difficult to play like a break-out sequel, when the first film was such a huge break out smash in the first place.
Finally, this last point tied back into what I said before about Chadwick Boseman’s passing. Yes there will be a massive curiosity factor for many and could lead to high number of people going to see how this movie will honor him. I mean one of the reasons why The Dark Knight and Furious 7 so aggressively over performed was due to the curiosity of how those films would handle the characters whose actors had tragically passed away (Heath Ledger who played the Joker in the former and Paul Walker who played Brian O’Connor in the latter). However in both cases, the actors still appeared in the movies as those characters. That is simply not the case here, putting this high profile blockbuster into an unprecedented situation. There will most likely be a good number of fans and general audience members that may understandably either be skeptical of the idea of making a film where the lead actor isn’t in it due to unfortunate circumstances or find this a hard one to watch emotionally because they will be reminded of the real life passing. It’s an an extremely difficult circumstance to navigate as no matter what direction is taken, not everyone is going to be onboard.
Final thoughts:
Overall I’m expecting Black Panther: Wakanda Forever to kick butt at the box office. The anticipation and buzz is clearly there and the curiosity over how the film will handle Chadwick Boseman’s passing will certainly draw a lot of attention. However I’m not expecting it to outgross it’s predecessor due to many of the reasons I listed above. I think this is going to play more like Avengers: Age of Ultron on opening weekend where it drops a bit below what the first made (so around $194 million). That would make it not only the biggest debut of the year thus far (over Doctor Strange 2’s $187 million opening) but also the biggest opening for the month of November over the $158 million earned by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire in 2013. I don’t see it being as leggy as the original since sequels tend to be more front loaded, but neither do I see it front loading as much as recent MCU films as word of mouth looks to be very solid. I think a domestic gross around $565 million seems doable and if it does close to Doctor Strange 2 numbers overseas (around $544 million) that would get it over $1 billion which would be a great performance.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $194 million
Domestic total: $565 million
Worldwide total: $1 billion
Now remember this is my prediction and not what the barometer for success should be. If it ends up playing like almost every MCU sequel and ends up out grossing it’s predecessor, fantastic. If it ends up grossing up just a bit under $500 million or pulls Doctor Strange 2 level grosses worldwide, that would also be fine in my eyes. I’m personally expecting it to play like most sequels to films that were giant events that out performed even the most optimistic expectations in that it’ll make less, but still pull strong grosses nonetheless. My thoughts on how this movie would have been changing throughout the year as if you had asked me at the beginning of the year, how I think it would have done? I would have said that it would make significantly less (keep in mind there was a lot of uncertainty regarding this project for a while). If you had asked me after the first trailer, I would have pegged it to make all the money and potentially challenge not just the original, but also Top Gun: Maverick ($716 million) as the year’s biggest domestic grosser. Now after much thought, I’m definitely thinking somewhere in between is most likely. No matter what, at the very least it seems like Ryan Coogler and everyone else who worked on the film got to make the follow up they thought was right given the loss of Chadwick Boseman and while I haven’t seen the film as of this writing, I do hope that they were able to honor him as he was such an outstanding actor and a seemingly great individual who we lost way too soon.
Holdover Business:
Given that no other studio dared to challenge the warriors of Wakanda a the box office this weekend, let’s check and see how some of the other major movies still in play have been doing.
Black Adam has been trying to make all the money it can make before it Black Panther comes in to suck all of the oxygen out of the room and it has been doing just that. It dropped a pretty standard super hero drop of 59% in it’s second weekend, but was able to hold really well this past weekend only dropping 33% which is actually about on par with what Shazam! dropped in it’s 3rd weekend. Just like that film it is going to face steep in competition in it’s fourth weekend (although Billy Batson definitely had it worse going up against Avengers Endgame out of all movies), but hopefully this one can recover somewhat and level out to solid grosses during the Thanksgiving holiday. It’s currently at $141 million domestic which is past Shazam’s $140 million take and could potentially reach Hobbs & Shaw’s $173 million total when all is said and done. Globally it is at $326 million and barring an unlikely release in China, it looks to end up over $410 million which is squarely in the realm of okay. It’s not great given the budget and franchise aspirations, but given that this is a largely unknown to the masses character and that the biggest selling point was it’s star, I’d say this isn’t too bad. It just means that a straight up sequel happening is a coin toss, but I can definitely see this character appearing in other DC projects in the future.
Last weekend actually saw the debut of One Piece Film: Red, which I may not have done a prediction (largely because I did not know how wide it would go), but still did good enough to end up in 2nd place with $9 million. I must say I have got to hand it to Funimation for going wide with these anime releases as just this year we had Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie open with $18 million in March and Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero debut with $21 million in August, both of which are among the biggest debuts for anime features in the States. Sure One Piece is likely to be just as front loaded as those two releases (they were very much one weekend wonders that played solely to the converted which is to be expected) but again these are low stakes releases that will manage to make money anyway due to international grosses and ever since Demon Slayer the Movie shocked us all in early 2021 by grossing $49 million domestically (2nd biggest gross for an anime feature) these anime releases have helped in giving theaters much needed dollars during times where the big studios became rather hesitant on releasing big films. It also could hopefully lead to more anime features getting wide releases in the U.S. as there is clearly an audience for these film that will show up.
Ticket to Paradise has held phenomenally these past two weekends as it is now nearing $50 million in the states with plenty of gas left in the tank. If it keeps these holds up it could end up higher than where I predicted it would land (around $75 million) and possibly get close the $90 million cume of Where the Crawdads Sing. Globally it stands at $140 million. For a $60 million star powered rom com that is likely to have a lucrative post theatrical afterlife, this looks to be a solid hit for Universal. Very happy about this one!
Smile has now breached the $100 million barrier domestically as well as $200 million globally. The legs on this film have been astounding given that it opened with $22 million in late September. It just goes to show how good word of mouth can carry a movie like this that had no A list stars or anything like that. Just a great marketing campaign, a creepy high concept and solid reviews. Paramount may have a new franchise on their hands (and to think this was originally intended for Paramount+).
Prey for the Devil has actually done better than I expected given that it is a low profile horror title that was poorly received to boot. It opened to $7 million and had a solid, especially for horror, hold of 45% this past weekend to bring it’s gross up to $13 million. While it is likely to lose steam very soon given the more high profile offerings coming to multiplexes soon, this is still not bad for a movie like this.
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile actually increased +22.9% this past weekend to bring it’s total up to $36 million. It seems like the well reviewed feature adaptation of the beloved children’s book is taking advantage of the complete lack of family films in the marketplace and the good word of mouth seems to be spreading. It looks to pass Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway ($40 million) very soon. In similar family film news, the heartwarming and wholesome comedy, Terrifier 2 is getting close to $10 million. It actually had a solid hold of around 42% this past weekend despite it being well past Halloween. Like Smile, this goes to show how good word of mouth can help a movie’s staying power.
In terms of potential awards season releases, Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin expanded into more theaters this past weekend and was able to make just over $2 million to bring it’s total up to $3 million. It should be expanding into more theaters in the weeks to come as it looks to be a huge player in the awards race. I myself cannot wait to see this film eventually as McDonagh’s last collaboration with Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson, In Bruges, is one of my favorite films.
Meanwhile Till is currently at $6 million, but could very well go higher depending on how much awards buzz Danielle Deadwyler gets for her performance. Same for Tar with (currently at $3 million) Cate Blanchett pretty much a shoo in for many best actress nominations. James Grey’s Armageddon Time expanded into 1,000 theaters but only grossed $792,760 to bring it’s total to $884,935. Not terribly surprising considering that it hasn’t quite gotten the same amount of buzz as other would be awards contenders and James Grey has never been known to be a filmmaker who makes commercially appealing films. Heck even his attempt to be make something more mainstream, Ad Astra, didn’t do so well (shame as I quite love that film).
Conclusion:
That just about wraps up this edition of box office predictions! Looking to next weekend we’ve got a couple of notable releases hitting theaters in wide release. Disney/Searchlight Pictures will be releasing the horror thriller comedy, The Menu, starring Anya Tayler-Joy, Nicolas Hoult, and Ralph Fiennes among others. Have heard really positive buzz from the festival circuits, so that’s one I’m looking forward to. We also have She Said from Universal which is about the New York Times journalists who took down Harvey Weinstein. I’ll be taking a look at how those films will do next week as well as seeing how Black Panther: Wakanda Forever fares in it’s opening. Anyways, feel free to sound off in the comments how you think Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is going to perform. As always see you guys next time!
Review Time 