Hello everybody and welcome to the second of two posts related to the Summer movie season! The other being my most anticipated movies of Summer 2024 list (if you haven’t read that, your more than welcome to go check that out). That was a more personal list, whereas this is going to (hopefully) be more non biased and analytical as I look into what I think the biggest movies of Summer 2024 will be! I did this last Summer and did okay in terms of what movies made the top ten (got 8 out 10 of them correct) but my rankings were all over the place. This Summer is going to be an interesting one as while last Summer was insanely packed, this one is relatively speaking, fairly sparse, in that we’ll at best have one (fairly biggish) big movie per weekend. Not only that, but a lot of the big titles this Summer are fairly big financial question marks that I’m not entirely sure about. That being said given that it is not as crowded, it does make me wonder if that will give these films the opportunity to over perform and leg out. But anyway without further ado, lets dive right into what I think will be the ten biggest movies of Summer 2024, domestically!
10. The Garfield Movie
The iconic orange tabby returns to the big screen for the first time in animated form over Memorial Day weekend and overall I’d say I’m optimistic about how it will do. Enough time has passed between this and the two live action films, that a new adaptation is likely to be seen as a big deal and the character, similar to the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (though maybe not quite as prominent), is one that has maintained a steady presence in pop culture thanks to various shows, comics, and more. Plus it is a property that I feel like most people (and especially kids) have at least heard of and this being the first ever feature length animated film based off of the property I’d say makes it into a big deal.
Helping matters is that Sony has been doing a great job marketing the feature with some fun trailers teasing a plot that is bigger than a regular Garfield story, and a lot of promotional materials (including the giant baby Garfield pop corn bucket head) that shows that they are confident in this. That and despite what the internet may say about him, Chris Pratt voicing the title character is a solid benefit more so than a detriment. Yes the movie would do well no matter what, but Pratt is an actor general audiences tend to like and he serves as a solid added value element to films based off of established properties (Jurassic World, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, etc.). The first Garfield movie opened with $21 million in the summer of 2004, legged out to $75 million domestic and $203 million worldwide on a $50 million budget. I think this will more than likely surpass those grosses by a good amount especially if this is a much better received film. I also expect solid overseas grosses as the character looks to be a solid draw in the international markets (Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties only made $28 million domestically in 2006, but $143 million worldwide on a $60 million budget). Considering that the budget is likely not astronomical, what the original made adjusted for inflation would be more than enough. In terms of comparisons I think The Peanuts Movie ($130 million domestic from a $44 million opening) is one that I feel is appropriate.
My Predictions:
Opening Weekend: $35 million
Domestic Total: $125 million
Worldwide Total: $320 million
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
I mentioned earlier how this Summer is filled with a good number of commercial question marks, and this is one of those. Now if you’ve read my most anticipated movies of this summer list, you’ll know that I am more than a little excited for George Miller’s return to the Wasteland and I’m sure plenty of people are. Mad Max: Fury Road was a critical darling that won a ton of Oscars in the technical categories, was nominated for Best Picture, and is often considered by many as one of the greatest and most influential action movies of the 21st century. That being said it also wasn’t a huge financial hit back in the Summer of 2015. Don’t get me wrong, it actually did very well domestically, playing to best case scenario box office opening with $45 million and legging out to $153 million domestic. Not bad for a long belated 4th installment in a cult franchise whose mainstream popularity was questionable at best. Problem is it “only” did $380 million worldwide which wasn’t fantastic on an $150 million budget. Now it for sure eventually turned a profit thanks to great home media sales and the critical reaction was so strong that it is hard not to view the project as an overall win. And if this were a sequel coming out soon after its predecessor, I’d be inclined to say we have a possible break out sequel on our hands.
But this is not that, but a prequel/spin-off that’s coming out nearly a decade later with Charlize Theron being replaced by Anya-Taylor Joy in the title role. I’m just not sure what general audience interest would be in a project like that, especially with such a long gap in between installments. Sure Furiosa is a fantastic character and a fan favorite, but will regular moviegoers care about her origins, let alone with a different actress in the part, who is popular and well liked, but not a proven butts in seats movie star. Also, while Chris Hemsworth is a great and charismatic talent, he has never been that big of a draw when he’s not playing Thor so his addition might not mean much, except for maybe as a slight value add. That and while action fans and cinephiles go crazy for Fury Road, I don’t know if that’s a movie that has stuck around with general moviegoers as much as film twitter would lead one to believe. That being said, I do think that the fans will show up and Warner Bros. has been on a winning streak as of late which means the marketing could do a good job in getting people on board with this, especially as it seems to be showing the film off as an IMAX worthy in the vein of their recent hits like Dune: Part Two and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. They’re also premiering this at the Cannes Film Festival in mid May showing that they do have confidence in this and if it is well received that could really help it in terms of staying power. Not sure what the budget was on this, but I’d imagine it wasn’t cheap and it looks like this might have to at least do Fury Road business (maybe better) in order to be a theatrical hit which I’m not sure it can do. Still, I’d love to be proven wrong though.
My Predictions:
Opening Weekend: $38 million
Domestic Total: $133 million
Worldwide Total: $338 million
8. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Now this might be the most frustrating one for me to predict because if it weren’t for one big incidence that I’ll get to in a moment, I would be very confident in this 4th installment of the Bad Boys franchise. The last installment, Bad Boys for Life, did shockingly well when it released back in January of 2020 just before theaters would close down due to the Covid-19 pandemic in March. For a good while, it had been tracking to do around $40-45 million in its opening weekend (maybe $50 million at best) which would have been a solid result and on par with what the second film opened to 17 years prior ($46 million in 2003). But then the reviews came out and were shockingly good to the point that the buzz for the film really took off in the days leading up to release. Cue a boffo $62 million three day opening ($70 million over the 4-day MLK frame) and really strong word of mouth from audiences, with the film then legging out to $206 million domestic and $426 million worldwide on a $90 million budget (biggest domestic grosser and global Hollywood release of 2020 by the way). That domestic number is even more impressive when you consider that it is one of the biggest R-rated non super hero action movies unadjusted for inflation (only behind American Sniper, The Matrix Reloaded, Beverly Hills Cop, and 300). It stands as one of the most impressive attempts at reviving a long gone franchise and it being so darn good (it’s my favorite of the franchise) meant that there was an immense amount of goodwill that would theoretically pay off in a follow up… and then the 2021 Oscars ceremony happened.
Yeah we really have to talk about the elephant in the room, which is the infamous “slap” that occurred during that telecast right before Will Smith would go on to win the Academy Award for best lead actor for his performance in King Richard. Without going too deeply into it and regardless of what one thinks of the situation (personally, I thought it was wrong and should not have happened, but neither do I think he should be black listed from Hollywood for it), it did not paint him in a good light in the eyes of many and it was much discussed for a very long time. That being said, it is unknown the extent in which the “slap” has affected his commercial viability as the only movie he has starred in since then was the slave action/thriller, Emancipation, which was released on Apple TV+. It is possible that a lot of general audiences have moved on and would be willing to see him in movies, particularly those that have some sort of IP attached. Smith is an actor who at one point was able to open movies of all shapes and sizes from I, Robot to Shark Tale to I Am Legend to Hitch and so much more. Starting in the mid 2010s he became less of a draw in non IP based stuff (Concussion, Collateral Beauty, Gemini Man, etc.) but was still a huge added value element in stuff like Suicide Squad and Aladdin (2019). Thus, Bad Boys: Ride or Die will be a test case as to whether he is still a draw in these franchise extensions. I’m inclined to believe it will do fine if only because I doubt it cost much more than its predecessor, there isn’t a whole lot of action centric competition in June, it promises more of the same, and the last film was very well liked. I also do think this would have always seen an inevitable comedown as the last one was the first Bad Boys movie in nearly 20 years, whereas this is merely another Bad Boys movie with few major added value elements this time out. Still, if it weren’t for the uncertainty of Smith’s drawing power post “slap”, I would likely be much higher on this.
My Predictions:
Opening weekend: $44 million
Domestic total: $135 million
Worldwide total: $288 million
7. The Fall Guy
In a normal Summer movie season we would usually have some sort of Marvel movie (MCU or otherwise) kicking off the season in that first weekend of May slot (or in the case of the last two Avengers movies, the last weekend of April). That looks to change this summer with The Fall Guy, which will be the first non marvel film to kick off the summer (not including 2020 and 2021 for obvious reasons) since Mission Impossible III in 2006. I’m very curious as to how this will turn out especially with a movie like this, which is going to be driven more by its star power more than anything else. Sure this is based off of the 1980s TV show of the same name starring Lee Majors, but for the majority of people this is essentially an original movie as that IP is not what I’d call one that is recognizable. Fortunately the marketing team of Universal has done a great job of selling this as a fun action adventure with a great cast and a lot of laughs regardless of IP connections and they seem very high on it. Aside from the deluge of marketing materials, they’ve also been screening the hell out of this, with it first premiering at the SXSW film festival in March while also being showed off to cinema owners and various members of the press at Cinemacon. The early reactions and reviews have been very strong with many calling it a blast at the movies with Ryan Gosling giving it his all. On a similar note, Gosling’s star power has arguably never been larger with his scene stealing role as Ken in last year’s Barbie being highly praised, and his show stopping performance of “I’m Just Ken” at the Oscars taking the internet by storm. Emily Blunt co starring certainly doesn’t add as she is an actress that people tend to like and she serves a solid added value element to projects.
So this movie definitely has all of the right ingredients to be a surprise hit and I have a lot of confidence in it. That being said there are definitely some things to consider. Up until this point, Gosling has never really been a butts in seats opener as aside from La La Land, most of his recent lead starring vehicles (Blade Runner 2049, The Nice Guys, etc.) have severely underperformed even with great acclaim. Will people who loved him as Ken want to see him as stunt man in his own action comedy? That’s the main question being asked here and while I’d like to say yes, it is possible that maybe online interest in Gosling may not translate to people willing to show up to see him in everything. My biggest fear would have to be that while Universal is selling the hell out of it and the confidence is there, this could be one of those movies that the studio goes all out on and is a winner from a quality perspective, but that still isn’t enough to move the needle on it (ala last year’s Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves). It doesn’t help that the movie carries a reported price tag of $125 million meaning numbers on par with the director David Leith’s last film, Bullet Train, ($103 million domestic and $239 million worldwide on a $90 million budget) or even something like Central Intelligence ($127 million domestic and $217 million worldwide on a $50 million budget) ain’t gonna cut it. Still I am going to be bullish and say this ends up opening solidly, but then really legs out due to strong word of mouth from critics and hopefully audiences as well as it looks to be a very solid crowd pleaser. International numbers are a bit of a coin toss but I’ll assume it’ll due solidly as well.
My Predictions:
Opening weekend: $39 million
Domestic total: $140 million
Worldwide total: $345 million
6. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
The Planet of the Apes series is an impressive one in that it has endured for so many decades and is one the audiences tend to show up for whenever a new movie comes out. The core concept is one that has an understandable intrigue and appeal and it helps that the movies, especially when discussing the most recent trilogy, tend to be of a high quality. In regards to the more modern iterations, they have been remarkably consistent, especially in regards to opening weekends. In July of 2001, Tim Burton’s remake nearly broke the opening weekend record with a $68 million debut eventually earning $180 million domestically and $362 million worldwide. It was a good result at the time on an $100 million budget, but it was so critically dismissed and not liked that much by audiences, that no sequel would ever transpire.
It wouldn’t be a decade later until 20th Century Fox would take another stab at the property with a reboot that also served as a half prequel/half re imagining in the form of Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Thanks to surprisingly strong reviews and solid marketing, it was able to surpass expectations opening to $54 million in the first weekend of August and taking advantage as its position as the last biggie of the Summer, legging out to $176 million domestically and $481 million worldwide (more than any big super hero movie that year) on a $93 million budget. More importantly, audiences actually liked it and it found a bigger audience once it reached home media. In July of 2014, that good will would pay off with Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. That follow up would get even better reviews and take advantage of a less crowded Summer movie season to become a break out sequel opening with a boffo $72 million and getting to $208 million domestic and $710 million worldwide on a $170 million budget (globally on par with the likes of Captain America: The Winter Soldier and The Amazing Spider-Man 2). Then in 2017 War for the Planet of the Apes came out and once again got fantastic reviews… but the commercial results were a fairly steep comedown from Dawn. It opened fine with $56 million (on par with Rise, but below Dawn by quite a bit), but then went on to only make $146 million domestic and $490 million worldwide on a $150 million budget. $112 million of that came from China so it was a rare Hollywood movie that actually needed China to avoid a severe underperformance. I’d chalk it up to the fact that as excellent as the movie is, it is also not exactly a feel good movie for the majority of its runtime, the War part of the title is a bit misleading, and it was sandwiched in between some pretty harsh competition that season (Spider-Man: Homecoming the weekend before and Dunkirk the weekend after). Still even though it sold itself as the trilogy capper to a well liked set of movies, it wasn’t able to avoid being overshadowed by other big movies in that same summer.
With all of that said, what does this mean for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, which is set generations after the events of the reboot trilogy with a brand new set of characters to follow. Will audiences be down to follow apes that aren’t Andy Serkis’s Caesar? Well if the movie is up to par with the last three, then I see that as a possibility. The trailers have done a great job re introducing audiences to this world, one that closely mirrors the original run of films, with the apes fully in control. It also just seems to be selling a visual and immersive experience that demands to be seen on the biggest screen possible, which as we’ve seen with movies like Avatar and Dune can be an effective part of the pitch. Now will this film be able to improve upon War financially? I think it is doable as this Summer is not as jam packed with surefire titles and assuming it is well received I can absolutely see it opening on par with Rise and War and then legging out to a really solid domestic total. Global should be interesting as this film will likely not have an extra $100 million+ from China, meaning it’ll really have to pull its weight in other markets to make up for the shortfall. While I’m not sure if it’ll reach the exact heights of the other movies in that regard I do think it’ll come close as it does seem buzz is strong with this one and if it succeeds that will only cement this franchise as one of the more reliable long running ones around.
My Predictions:
Opening weekend: $58 million
Domestic total: $174 million
Worldwide total: $455 million
5. A Quiet Place: Day One
In terms of horror films releasing this Summer, this prequel to the A Quiet Place franchise is one that I think will easily be the biggest. The original film was a surprise break out in April of 2018 surpassing expectations with a $50 million opening (which stands behind only the two It films and Us in terms of horror openings) and thanks to great reviews and fantastic word of mouth, having incredible staying power getting all the way up to $188 million domestic (5th biggest horror film unadjusted for inflation) and $340 million worldwide on a $17 million budget. Thus a new franchise was born with A Quiet Place Part II set to release in March of 2020… until the world shut down due to Covid leading to it getting delayed numerous times. It would go on to release during Memorial Day weekend of 2021 and would go on to open to a $47 million opening (biggest opening for any movie up to that point since theater reopened) and leg out to $160 million domestic and $297 million worldwide on budget between $55-61 million. Given how uncertain the theatrical marketplace was at this time, that was very impressive and was about what was expected prior to it being delayed (tracking sites had it at $60 million which it nearly reached over its $57 million 4 day long holiday weekend gross). It also showed just how popular the series and how great of a theatrical experience it is to watch them that this movie ended up pulling in these numbers during these theatrically uncertain times.
The question is, will the people who may have wanted to see the second one in theaters but couldn’t go see this one? I having a feeling that that could be the case. Granted this is a prequel that doesn’t have any of the main characters from the first two coming back as we are instead following new characters not related to the Abbott family, whom audiences have grown a solid great emotional attachment to. That being said I feel like this is a case where going the prequel route could be intriguing since seeing how it was like when these monsters first invaded Earth is just a great hook in and of itself. Plus this entry is promising something different from the first two as it is taking place in New York City (where things can be very hectic) vs. a small town and the scope looks to be even bigger as well. Aside from these factors, one simple reason this will likely do well is that it is a big horror movie and that has been one of the most reliable genres since theaters re opened with so many of them pulling in solid numbers relative to their budgets. While this will likely cost a good bit more than an average horror film, this is one horror franchise that I think is one that attracts not only fans but also those who may not be big on horror as they have other things to offer. It helps that there is an insane amount of goodwill towards the other films that one simple selling point of this is is that audiences will likely get something of great quality. I think it’ll have the biggest opening of the franchise and then land somewhere in between the first two films domestically while worldwide I think it’ll be in a similar range.
My Predictions:
Opening weekend: $61 million
Domestic total: $185 million
Worldwide total: $330 million
4. Twisters
Here is the mother of all coin tosses this Summer. Not gonna lie, if you had asked me a year ago what I thought about this movie’s prospects I probably would have been somewhat pessimistic. Yes Twister was indeed a massive hit when it opened in May of 1996 to $41 million which at the times was the 6th biggest opening weekend of all time, and the biggest start for a movie ever released in May. It would go on to have phenomenal staying power chugging along to a whopping $241 million domestic and $495 millions globally on a $92 million budget. It was the second biggest movie of 1996 on both accounts, only behind Independence Day. While not that well received critically, it was well liked by general audiences and was seen as a great crowd pleaser by many offering up at the time, groundbreaking special effects and actors who made for likable presences (Helen Hunt, Bill Paxton, Philip Seymour Hoffman, etc.). That being said… is there enough interest in another attempt more than 25 years later? Since Twister has come out we have seen plenty of natural disaster movies in its wake achieving varying degrees of success meaning what was once special is now par for the course. Not only that, but this movie reportedly has a budget of around $200 million, meaning it is going to have to make a good bit more than the original in order to be considered a hit which I didn’t really see happening for the longest time. So yeah, there was a part of me that thought this was another IP for the sake of IP play commercially and that it could be in contention for one of the biggest bombs of the Summer… but now I’m starting to think this has a shot to be something big.
Don’t get me wrong, I still think this far from a surefire thing, but at the same time I can see this pulling best case scenario business if everything goes according to plan. While we seen every possible natural disaster onscreen at this point, it is has been a while since we’ve gotten a big theatrical tornado movie, the last one I can recall being 2014’s Into the Storm, which did $47 million domestic from a $17 million opening but a whopping $161 million worldwide on a $50 million budget. So there low key may be an appetite to this kind of destruction on the big screen again. Not only that but you actually have a cast of up and comers such as Daisy Edgar-Jones, Anthony Ramos, and especially Glen Powell that could help propel this thing into something more than just watching tornados destroy stuff. Individually I’m not sure how effective they are in terms of drawing power, but together chasing storms, I can see that being an appealing package. Plus the trailers have done a really good job thus far at selling this as a must see event on the big screen that has IMAX worthy spectacle written all over it. Am I a little too bullish on this one? Perhaps, but I don’t know, I feel like audiences are now more prone to gravitate towards this kind of star driven spectacle regardless of the IP value. Plus it is a big scale spectacle involving regular people getting caught up in extra ordinary circumstances which is not too common these days. This could very well go either way but I’m weirdly on the side of optimism especially if it is good and fun. If so then this could be a really solid performer during the latter half of summer.
My Predictions:
Opening weekend: $70 million
Domestic total: $228 million
Worldwide total: $550 million
3. Inside Out 2
Now we get to what are the near surefire smash hits of the Summer starting with a follow up to one of the most beloved Pixar films in recent memory, Inside Out. The first film came out 9 years ago in June of 2015 and not only was a critical smash that saved the company from the narrative that they were in a slump (creatively speaking) but it was also a huge financial win as well! While it came in second place behind the $106 million second weekend gross of Jurassic World, it still was able to put up a phenomenal $90 million debut (at the time the biggest opening for a purely original film and it remains number two behind The Secret Life of Pets). It would go on to have incredible staying power getting up to $356 million domestic and $858 million globally on a $175 million budget. It would then go on to win the academy award for best animated feature that year and is now considered among the finest films ever released by the studio in recent memory. Now will this sequel, which follows Riley as a teenager and introduces new emotions into the mix, achieve a similar level of success. While I’m not sure if it’ll reach the heights of the original, I still expect it to do very well.
One thing that is in its favor is that long belated Pixar sequels tend to do very well and tend to improve upon their predecessors. The most recent examples include Finding Dory and Incredibles 2. The former opened to $135 million vs. Finding Nemo’s $70 million opening in 2003, made $486 million (compared to $339 million in the initial theatrical run), and $1 billion globally (compared to $871 million in the original theatrical run). The latter scored a record breaking $182 million (biggest ever for an animated movie) vs. the $70 million opening of the original in 2004, and would go on to make an astounding $608 million domestic (still the biggest gross ever for an animated film unadjusted for inflation and way above the $261 million gross of the first) and $1.242 billion globally (third behind the two Frozen films and The Super Mario Bros. Movie and way above the $631 million gross of the first). These are some pretty incredible increases from the first to the second film and if Inside Out 2 is able to achieve this I would not be surprised as again it is a sequel to a beloved film that is coming out at just the right time when people who grew up on that film are now becoming nostalgic for it.
That being said I don’t know why, but I just can’t see it reaching the heights of the first. I’m still not sure how big of a factor Disney+ will play into this as since late 2020 we had three original Pixar films go straight to the platform and two Disney Animation features get compromised releases that related to the service. This seems to have led to a mentality that it is okay to wait for these films to hit the platform and thus audiences skip out on them in theaters. However at the same time, last Summer’s Elemental had a very low opening ($29 million), but then went on to leg out like crazy to $154 million domestic and $496 million worldwide thanks to fantastic word of mouth from audiences. So it seems like if Disney allows the movie to do business in theaters and if the movie is well received, it can thrive in theaters. I would like to imagine Inside Out 2 will pull even bigger numbers and also we don’t really know if their animated franchise installments will suffer any kind of Disney+ drop. For now I’m inclined to believe it’ll do very well, maybe not as well as its predecessor, but a great performance regardless. And if it is as acclaimed as the original then even better and this could be one that may do better than I’m predicted. I’m just going to be on the side of caution for this one.
My Predictions:
Opening weekend: $88 million
Domestic total: $285 million
Worldwide total: $725 million
2. Deadpool & Wolverine
Now here’s a movie that has a lot riding on it for a multitude of reasons. After facing some struggles last year theatrically with the severe underperformance of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and the flat out catastrophic performance of The Marvels, as well the brand being diluted by the endless amount of TV shows, the MCU is in desperate need of some sort of critical and/or financial hit and Deadpool & Wolverine looks to hopefully be just that (well for now at least). On paper this seems one of the few surefire hits of the Summer. It is part of a well liked franchise starring an iconic character/actor combo that people do like. Plus you have him making his debut in the MCU which is something fans have been curious about ever since Disney bought 20th Century Fox and the promise that the R-rating will be maintained. Of course as a bonus, we have Hugh Jackman reprising his iconic role of Wolverine for the first time since 2017’s Logan which was originally thought to be his final stab at the character (and it seemingly technically was at least for that iteration of the character). Him teaming up with Deadpool is also something fans have been wanting to see for a while, and with him donning his iconic yellow spandex from the comics, it looks like they will be getting their wish. Adding in some multiverse shenanigans and the promise of some surprise cameos and we have what is undoubtedly going to be a big hit… question is how high will it go?
Well when looking at the first two Deadpool films, they were both great successes. The original vastly exceeded expectations over Valentines Day weekend with an $132 million opening ($152 million over 4 days) and legged out to $363 million domestic and $782 million on a $58 million budget. Huge hit and a sequel would be announced soon after. That follow up, Deadpool 2, while not overtaking its predecessor, still did very well for a sequel to a film as back as Deadpool, opening with $125 million and getting to $318 million domestic and $734 million globally (if you count the PG-13 cut, Once Upon a Deadpool, that released later that year, the grosses go up to $324 million domestic and $785 million worldwide). Again both huge hits and I can definitely see Deadpool & Wolverine reaching those heights and perhaps exceeding them… but I don’t think it’ll be by that much.
I think this is one that like any comic book movie released now, will be very execution dependent in order to thrive beyond the opening weekend. If it is well received and a great crowd pleaser, then I can see this going to infinity and beyond. If not well while I think it’ll still be fine, I do think it could run out of gas quickly. That and box office pundit, Scott Mendelson, made a great point about how the people who are excited for a new Deadpool movie are likely the same that would want to see Hugh Jackman back as Wolverine meaning there is a big overlap between audiences that could lead to this merely playing in line with a normal Deadpool movie. So there are a lot of factors here that could lead to this merely making most of the money instead of all of the money and I’m still not sure how hyped general audiences are for what is essentially “No Way Home” but for the Marvel Fox Universe (although again I do think there will be great interest in Jackman coming back). So I have no doubt it’ll open huge but whether or not it legs out depends on if it can appeal to beyond the very hard core fans. At the very least it should break some R-rated records domestically if my prediction comes to fruition.
My predictions:
Opening weekend: $152 million
Domestic total: $375 million
Worldwide total: $855 million
And the movie that I think will win the Summer domestically is…
Despicable Me 4
Now I do think that it could be a very tight race for number one between Deadpool & Wolverine and Despicable Me 4, but in the end I am a bit more bullish on the next adventure for Gru and the Minions. This is due to the simple fact that these movies (counting the Minions films) are remarkably consistent in terms of huge grosses (helps that they only cost between $75-100 million to make). Sure Despicable Me 3 was a comedown domestically from Despicable Me 2 (from $368 million to $264 million), yet it was still able to surpass that second film globally ($1 billion compared to $970 million) and I would argue that the franchise is now re emerging in terms of popularity thanks to the surprise success of Minions: The Rise of Gru. That sequel to the massively successful spin off (which made $336 million domestic and $1.1 billion global) ended up doing even better than many of us expected opening to $107 million ($124 million over the July 4th long holiday weekend) and legging out to $370 million domestic and $940 million worldwide!
Considering what 3 did domestically, the fact that this ended up vastly exceeding that as well as become the biggest film in franchise in that regard (second biggest Illumination film now behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie) during the Covid recovery Summer of 2022 is very remarkable and a sign that this franchise is still very much popular with not only young kids and families but also teens and young adults who perhaps grew up with these movies when they were coming out and are now old enough to develop nostalgia for them. Considering how big the Gentleminions phenomenon was back then, I think that was most certainly a big factor as to why that film overperformed and I expect something similar to happen here. I am more confident in this film now especially with how well Kung Fu Panda 4 has been doing as that was also following a franchise low domestically ($143 million for Kung Fu Panda 3) but thanks to a long enough wait time between installments for nostalgia to kick in as well as Jack Black’s profile as a kid friendly movie star rising significantly, the fourth film opened to $57 million domestic and is currently at $185 million domestic (second best of the series on both accounts) and $503 million worldwide (aiming to surpass the $521 million total of the third film very soon and that is with an $100 million comedown from three in China). I think similar will happen with Despicable Me 4 as it will greatly over perform the third film domestically and might get to it worldwide as well (although China will not be as big of a factor this time around, which is where three made $158 million). Gru and the Minions are clearly marquee characters and there isn’t much for families aside from Harold and the Purple Crayon (which is a coin toss at best) until Transformers One in September so this could run the tables for a while.
My Predictions:
3-Day Opening weekend: $90 million
5-Day Opening weekend: $150 million
Domestic total: $390 million
Worldwide total: $1 billion
Wild Cards:
There are plenty of other movies that could potentially make the list if everything goes right for them. So here’s a brief rundown of three potential upsets.
IF – This Ryan Reynolds starring live action family comedy with a stacked cast could definitely break out as the concept is fun, it is the first big deal family title since March, and the fact that Paramount has been selling the hell out of this with an aggressive marketing campaign. Still it is an original live action family comedy which isn’t very common and is a bit of a risk. Plus family competition from The Garfield Movie a week later isn’t preferable. Still if it is well reviewed and audiences like it I can see this surprising.
Horizon: An American Saga – This one is fascinating as it is being split up into two parts with both releasing this Summer. If anyone of them is going to make the top ten I’m inclined to say the first part, but wouldn’t it be wild if both of them got in! We don’t usually get a lot of big budget theatrical westerns nowadays which makes this both a risk but also into something unique unto itself in the marketplace. I can definitely see this being the big movie for adults this Summer especially if it is able to attract the Yellowstone audience who would be interested in seeing Kevin Costner in a similar sandbox.
It Ends with Us – This is one that could very much be a surprise sleeper in the vein of July 2022’s Where the Crawdads Sing, which did $90 million off a $17 million opening and $144 million worldwide on a $24 million budget. Like that film, this is apparently based off a hugely successful romantic novel by Colleen Hoover and it stars Blake Lively who has proven that she can lead modestly budgeted star vehicles to solid success with The Shallows and A Simple Favor being two notable ones. So this is definitely one that could surprise especially since it is one of the few movies this Summer that primarily aimed at the female demographic.
Conclusion:
So that just about wraps up my predictions for Summer 2024! Now of course just because a movie doesn’t make the top ten doesn’t mean they are set up for failure. I definitely see a lot of the horror fare this Summer (The Strangers: Chapter 1, The Watchers, Trap, etc.) doing solid business as horror usually does, while Fly Me to the Moon is one that could pull a Ticket to Paradise and end up doing solidly for a theatrical rom com. I also hope The Bikeriders can pull some decent numbers if Focus Features actually bothers to market it properly. As for any likely disappointments well as I mentioned Harold and the Purple Crayon is one that could underwhelm (anything close to Lyle, Lyle Crocodile’s $112 million global total would be an arguable win depending on the budget) while Borderlands is one that could really go either way. Even if Alien Romulus is good, I’m just not sure if that franchise has much gas left in the tank and unless I’m severely underestimating general audience interest in a remake of The Crow, I think that is DOA (though given Lionsgate is behind it, they’ll likely make some money off of it in the end). Other than that though I am very much looking forward in seeing how these films perform and whether or not my batting average will be any good this year. It’s going to be an interesting Summer for sure and here’s hoping it can improve upon some pessimistic industry expectations! Do you agree with my picks? What is your top ten looking like? Please share all of that and anything else you want to talk about down below in the comments. Also if your interested don’t forget to check out my most anticipated movies of the Summer list!
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