Hello everybody and welcome to a very special edition of box office predictions! Yes I know I’ve been skipping this past couple of weekends, but that was because I had the idea to do this. As you may know, summer is nearly upon us and with that commences the Summer movie season when studios take advantage of the season and release many of their heavy hitter to try and get as many butts in seats as possible. It also means that the schedule is going to be quite packed and I may not have time to always do weekly predictions. So instead I decided that I might as well and predict what the 15 biggest movies of the season will be domestically, as well as what they might gross both domestic and worldwide. I have seen many others try to do this and I just thought it would be fun for me to take a stab at it. Plus when all of the grosses are in for the movies, I will go over how I did compared to the actual results.
With that said lets talk a little bit about how this Summer is shaping up. Given that these past couple of Summers have been depressed a bit, despite plenty of movies doing well, thanks to Covid concerns in 2021 and a smaller number of movies being released than usual in 2022. Thus, that is what makes this summer such an interesting one to look at as it is I’d argue the first normal Summer movie season since 2019, where we have a reliable stream of movies big and small coming out on a weekly basis. In fact it actually looks to be a more packed season than normal with each month from May to August having big releases, which is usually something that isn’t too normal (usually there is at least one light month, with it almost always being August). This is a great thing for theater owners who need as much revenue as possible, however there is the concern that there will be little room for these movies to breathe after opening weekend with there being so much competition, meaning the pressure is there for them to be well received enough by general audiences for them to make enough of an impact. Which of those films will make the most out of the bunch. Well, that is what I’m here to predict! Keep in mind these are my personal predictions and I may very well end up being wrong in certain places, but that’s just part of the fun. Without further ado, here are my predictions for what will be the 15 biggest domestic grossers of summer 2023!
15. The Meg 2: The Trench
Yes that’s right Jason Statham is back to fight more giant sharks in this follow up to the hit 2018 movie. I will admit that I was surprised at just how well The Meg did as it really over performed compared to most expectations at the time. On paper it seemed like the type of film to just come and go at the box office as giant monster movies (with the exception of the Jurassic Park franchise, very few of these types of films have breached even $500 million global) aren’t humongous money makers, Jason Statham is only reliable in a solo action movie if the budget is small, reviews weren’t great, and it was yet another co production between Hollywood and China, something that had been attempted numerous times but never quite panned out with The Great Wall being a noteworthy example. However the film actually managed to defy these concerns as domestically it opened with $45 million and then actually managed to have solid legs despite mixed reviews and strong competition from the the still going strong Mission Impossible: Fallout. It finished with $145 million and thanks to strong overseas grosses (including $153 million in China) for a $530 million global finish on a between between $130-$178 million. One can credit a strong marketing campaign that embraced the silliness of the premise, the movie did deliver what was promise, and the fact that big budget shark movies are something of a rarity nowadays. That being said, will folks be willing to see another one of these? Personally I think this has “folks were merely curious the first time” written all over it as while the first was well liked by audiences I’m not sure if it inspired so much enthusiasm for more adventures and we’ve seen plenty of times that audiences can lack interest in sequels to movies they at least enjoyed (just look at the disastrous performance of Shazam! Fury of the Gods). Plus the longer than planned wait time between installments and the surprisingly stacked April slate certainly won’t help. Still this mostly applies domestically as I can see this doing decently overseas, however that depends on how much interest China has as the first was a big hit there and this stars a very prolific star there in the form of Wu Jing who has been in some of the biggest movies in the marketplace (Wolf Warrior 2, The Wandering Earth, etc.). That could help it avoid the fate of so many recent Hollywood films there and push it to a decent worldwide haul even if I’m expecting a softer domestic performance.
My prediction:
Opening weekend: $33 million
Domestic total: $83 million
Worldwide total: $355 million
14. The Boogeyman
Call this one my dark horse prediction. For those who don’t know what this movie is, it is based off of a short story written by Stephen King and it concerns a patient who leaves behind a supernatural entity that feeds off of its victims’s suffering and is now stalking a family dealing with trauma of their own. It was actually going to be a streaming movie for Hulu till Disney and 20th Century Studios decided to bump it up to theatrical release thanks to very strong test screening results. One of the more overlooked bright spots for 20th Century Studios under Disney is that they have done well releasing lower budgeted, buzzy, horror skewing movies into theaters with the likes of Barbarian and The Menu doing quite well for themselves. I can something similar happening with The Boogeyman, except on a bigger scale as I feel Disney/20th Century Studios will do all they can to market this one (the trailers have been very effective for this one) and get the word out there on how great it is. Not only that but original horror movies with a simple yet effective premise like The Black Phone, M3GAN, and Smile (another film that was originally intended for streaming until great test screenings changed the plan) have been doing really well and I think Boogeyman has a shot at similar success. I would not be surprised if it performs similar to The Black Phone, which came out in June of last year, and is able to capitalize on the buzz for a great opening and solid legs. Plus if it hits it big, it will be yet another example of a film originally intended for streaming going on to theatrical glory because of sheer quality (ex. Air, Smile, Evil Dead: Rise, etc.).
My prediction:
Opening weekend: $23 million
Domestic total: $85 million
Worldwide total: $166 million
13. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Everybody’s favorite crime fighting reptile are back on the big screen, this time in animated form. This is actually not the first time this property has been brought to life through animation in theaters as the last time this happened was back in 2007 with TMNT which did well enough but not spectacularly ($95 million globally on a $34 million budget). There were sequels planned but those got canned due to the animation studio, Imagi, going bankrupt. I’m sure Paramount is hoping for a much better outcome this time as they have stated that this could be the start of a brand new era for the Ninja Turtles if successful. I think this will likely do well as the Ninja Turtles brand has been around for so long through many different iterations with many generations getting into the property through some way. It is also an IP that is less concerned about re capturing nostalgia and more about adapting the property for today’s youths with each new interpretation, which means Mutant Mayhem might serve as a nice jumping off point for a lot of kids. Plus the last theatrical TMNT movie was Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows back in 2016 so enough time has passed between this and the live action reboot series to take another stab at the IP. I do remain a little cautious in my outlook however, and that is because animated super hero films that are based off of a pre established super hero (The Lego Batman Movie, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, etc.) don’t tend to do blockbuster numbers compared to their live action counter parts (even though they still do decent business). Granted, one could argue TMNT is primarily associated with animation, but even then I don’t expect think this will have as much as a “curiosity factor” among general audiences as the 2014 live action reboot had. Still I can see it opening on par with Out of the Shadows and if reviews and word of mouth are strong, I can see this leg out to a solid total. Not sure what the budget is but lets just hope that its reasonable enough that numbers on par with DC-League of Super-Pets would be considered a win. Still, am very much rooting for this one as I am a massive Ninja Turtles fan and I think it looks fantastic.
My prediction:
Opening weekend: $36 million
Domestic total: $117 million
Worldwide total: $230 million
12. Haunted Mansion
After Jungle Cruise achieved nominal success on a Covid curve, Disney has another opportunity to show that they are more than just live action remakes of their animated classics, in regards to their live action output with yet another classic Disney World ride getting the big screen treatment. The Haunted Mansion ride is arguably one of the most recognizable and well known rides in all of the Disney parks so it makes sense that they would try to adapt it again. The first attempt was back in 2003 and starred Eddie Murphy and that one didn’t quite do so well critically or financially ($182 million globally on a $90 million budget). That being said that came out a long time ago and I am inclined to think that the general populace doesn’t remember it that much to feel like this IP is tainted on the big screen. Helping matters is that the film has a stacked cast that includes the likes of Owen Wilson, Rosario Dawson, Lakeith Stanfield, Danny DeVito, Winona Ryder, Jamie Lee Curtis, and more. None of them may be draws on their own, but together as an ensemble in a spooky fun looking adventure, I think there is some value to that. That being said I am still expecting a performance on par with Jungle Cruise (which I’d argue was a safer bet and would have made substantially more under normal circumstances). This is largely because I’m not entirely sure how well the horror element will play among families and that might limit appeal somewhat, although I’m sure future trailers will make sure to emphasize the comedy a bit more. That being said a Jungle Cruise like performance would be fine as long as Disney didn’t spend the same amount of money they did for that film ($200 million). Plus, given how Cruella seemed to have much more appeal than I thought it would, I would not be shocked if this over performed my expectations.
My prediction:
Opening weekend: $39 million
Domestic total: $120 million
Worldwide total: $230 million
11. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
Here is among the bigger question marks of the summer movie season. Believe it or not, despite being mostly lambasted by critics, there was a time when the Transformers films were among the biggest movies of any given year with grosses landing anywhere from $245 to $402 million domestic and $709 million to $1.1 billion globally… and then Transformers: The Last Knight happened. Michael Bay’s final outing for the series severely under performed to the tune of $130 million domestic and $605 million globally ($228 million coming from China) on a budget between $217-260 million, with Paramount reportedly losing $100 million from it. It seemed like audiences just about had enough of these films after 4 entries and now the franchise found itself in a weird place of having to go forward because it is among Paramount’s prized IPs despite having encountered what would have been for any other series, a franchise killing failure. Fortunately they were able to course correct a bit as they released the spin off/soft reboot Bumblebee the next year which grossed $127 million domestic and $467 million worldwide. Yes, that is the lowest grosser in the series, however it only cost between $102-$135 million, which is much lower than what the franchise usually costs. Not only that, but it was by a mile the best received film critically in the series and won over a lot of people who weren’t fond of the previous entries. This new entry is set to be a follow up to that film which will definitely help in terms of getting people on board. That being said, I still find it unlikely that this will bring the series back to its previous highs as I feel those previous five movies caused serious franchise fatigue and this summer is just so insanely packed that I feel like this one might get lost in the shuffle. However, the fact that this new installment is adapting “Beast Wars”, which is one of the more popular incarnations of the brand (the original animated series was actually one of the earlier CG animated series) will help in maintaining interest among fans who likely would not have been interested in another one of these. So this is one that really could go either way and I feel like reception (and if it plays well in China) will be key to its financial success.
My prediction:
Opening weekend: $45 million
Domestic total: $125 million
Worldwide total: $420 million
10. Elemental
We now kick off the top 10 with the first original Pixar movie to get a full on theatrical release since Onward which opened right when things started to go downhill thanks to covid. I would argue that this is Disney’s most important release this Summer (whether they see it that way remains to be seen) as they have to prove that they can still sell original animation features as theatrical events after 3 Pixar films going straight to Disney+ and two Disney Animation originals having heavily compromised theatrical runs. Last year was very grim with Pixar’s Lightyear (which they did their best in selling) tanking despite being associated with a well known IP and Disney Animation’s Strange World (which they hardly sold) faring even worse, becoming one of the biggest animated bombs of all time. So now, now they find themselves on the defensive, more so with Universal finding great success with their animated output. Luckily with Bob Iger back as CEO, I do think there will be a bit more of an attempt to sell Elemental. It has a classic Pixar high concept with the idea of the elements being alive and it looks to be a fun romantic adventure with all the humor and emotion that audiences expect from a film like this. Not only that, but like Up and Inside Out before it, it has been confirmed that the film will be premiering at the Cannes film festival later this month showing that the studio has a great amount of confidence in the feature and wants to get the word out about it. While I don’t think it’s be one of the biggest grossers from the studio as it will take some time to re adjust audience viewing habits, if word of mouth is strong then I can see this having a very leggy run throughout the summer.
My prediction:
Opening weekend: $43 million
Domestic total: $145 million
Worldwide total: $385 million
9. Oppenheimer
Christopher Nolan is back with a brand new movie, this time a look into the father of the Atomic bomb himself, J. Robert Oppenheimer. Nolan has proven that he is one of the few directors out there who can sell a movie with his name alone with movies like Inception, Interstellar, and Dunkirk achieving varying levels of great success. Heck even though it was not released in the most ideal of circumstances and its domestic performance was severely mitigated, Tenet still brought in over $363 million globally during a time when many movies were struggling to get close to such amounts and a movie like that making that much during a time like that would not have happened if it weren’t for his name being on the marquee. Thus him being behind the camera is already a huge selling point as well as the incredibly stacked cast comprised of Cillian Murphy, Robert Downey Jr., Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Florence Pugh, and more. Plus, even though this is a historical drama, Universal will make sure to sell it as a big screen event meant to be seen in IMAX with the whole atomic bomb angle. That being said I don’t see it quite reaching the levels of some of his other blockbusters as it is a three hour action lite historical drama about subject matter that isn’t exactly fun. Even with Nolan’s name attached, I don’t see this quite having the same appeal as something like Interstellar or even Dunkirk which at least had an action element to it. Still, with the right buzz and it being the big grown up movie of the Summer I can see it opening on par with Nolan’s other films and legs will likely be very strong as it looks to attract a lot of older moviegoers.
My prediction:
Opening weekend: $48 million
Domestic total: $168 million
Worldwide total: $400 million
8. Barbie
Now we arrive at what I’d argue is the big wild card of the season and one that I think has a shot at being a big break out hit if everything goes according to plan. Ever since Greta Gerwig was attached to direct and the massive cast was revealed (Margot Robbit, Ryan Gosling, Michael Cera, Simu Liu, Will Ferrell, and more), the internet has been absolutely obsessed with this movie, with even the talent involved hyping it up to be something very special, something that I have no doubts about as I quite love Gerwig’s previous two movies (Lady Bird and the 2019 version of Little Women). The question is how are general audiences going to respond to it? Well the cast will certainly help as well as the fact that Barbie is one of the most popular toys ever made and has never gotten a big budget film for the big screen. So there will definitely be an inherent curiosity factor in a similar way that there was for The Lego Movie back in 2014. Plus if reviews are strong I can see this capitalizing on the buzz and opening very well and having decent staying power as a result. That being said, I am still not sure if general audiences will respond well to the more self aware tone and the fact that it is a little unclear whether this is a full on family film or something aimed more towards adults. Not helping matters is that there aren’t many direct comparisons that I can think of that can give us an ideas as to how this will perform meaning this is going to be an interesting one to watch and a real test case as to whether online hype translates to general audiences interest.
Opening weekend: $60 million
Domestic total: $178 million
Worldwide total: $445 million
7. Fast X
Fast is back once again with what is confirmed to be the beginning of the end for long running action franchise. The last installment F9: The Fast Saga came out at an uncertain time for theaters and was able to do quite well given the circumstances becoming one of the first huge tentpoles to welcome back audiences in large numbers. It was the first movie of the pandemic era to open over $50 million and it made $173 million domestic and $726 million worldwide. Yes that’s well below the $1.2-1.5 billion totals of Furious 7 and Fate of the Furious, but it was still good on a covid curve. So naturally one would expect Fast X, which is coming out in more ideal conditions to perform better. Well I do think it will make more than F9… but not by a whole lot. Yes I know the series pulled in huge grosses prior to Covid by I feel like this series was always going to face diminishing returns eventually, especially on the domestic side as Fate of the Furious’s $226 million total was a steep comedown from Furious 7’s $353 million total (which remains a franchise high water mark that remains unlikely to be surpassed). It doesn’t help that recent entries haven’t exactly been beloved by many, or at least you don’t hear as much enthusiasm for them. Now it should still make up for the domestic downturn with strong overseas grosses although keep in mind, China which has been a huge market for this series may not be as a big as before as audiences were not big on F9 at all (it made $216 million off a massive $136 million debut which is pretty terrible staying power) and Chinese audiences have proven that they will not turn out for new film in a franchise if they didn’t like the previous one. Another reason this might struggle to make money theatrically is that the budget is reported to be a whopping $340 million! That is just insane (yes I know the last minute switch in directors probably contributed) and basically means that this has to perform like the very best performers in the series just to be theatrically profitable and I just don’t see that happening. Am I underestimating the interest in this franchise? Maybe, but I don’t know, I just have a feeling this may be the one that might make general audiences go “really, another one of these?”.
My predictions:
Opening weekend: $85 million
Domestic total: $188 million
Worldwide total: $855 million
6. The Flash
Here’s one that really could go either way. This is a movie that has been through so much just to get to the big screen that I can’t believe it is actually coming out. Question is will it prove to be worth the investment? Well The Flash himself is a very popular comic book character and I’m sure there are many fans who are excited to see him finally get a big screen feature. Warner Bros. is clearly confident in the movie as they have been hyping up this movie to such a huge extent that it borders on self parody, as the film got a very good response when it screened at CinemaCon with many critics and members of the press calling it a very solid crowd pleaser. The big thing going for this film though, is the return of Michael Keaton as Batman, something the marketing has made very clear to emphasize as I feel there will be a big curiosity factor surrounding his involvement. However I can’t say I’m as confident in this one’s prospects as others. Even if you look past the elephant in the room regarding the controversy surrounding the Ezra Miller situation (which should absolutely be acknowledged when talking about the movie, even if I don’t think general audiences are that in the know about it), we are still dealing with a movie about an incarnation of a popular character that hasn’t really meant much to general audiences that is part of a universe that is hit or miss with a lot of people. I mean a lot of casual moviegoers (especially those who haven’t seen Zack Snyder’s Justice League) most likely barely care enough about Miller’s portrayal of Flash to be interested in seeing a stand alone film centered on them and the connections to previous DC Universe films like Man of Steel don’t mean a whole lot as a lot of people were indifferent to them. Still I think it’ll do well enough because of Keaton’s involvement and the fact that word of mouth looks to be good enough to perhaps overcome a lot of the things I’ve mentioned, I just am not expecting it to be the absolute juggernaut people think it will be.
My predictions:
Opening weekend: $88 million
Domestic total: $235 million
Worldwide total: $755 million
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Kicking off the top 5 is a film that seems primed to hit break out sequel status. The original Spider-Verse film was a solid hit when it first came out as it had phenomenal staying power ($190 million domestic from a $35 million opening) and it grossed over $384 million worldwide which was very good given the $90 million budget and that it was an animated film based off of a recognizable super hero. A good result if not a huge blockbuster. However ever since the release of that first film it has grown significantly in terms of popularity with people who saw it in theaters spreading the good word which means a lot of people checking it out on streaming, VOD, home media, etc. and becoming fans of it. Thus you have that audience expanding over time to the point where when the sequel comes out, it capitalizes on all of that earned good will into an even bigger performance. Examples of this include Austin Powers, John Wick, Pitch Perfect, The Dark Knight, etc. I’m very confident Spier-Verse will join that list as the anticipation is huge right now and marketing has promised that this follow up will maintain everything people loved about the original while also expanding the scale and raising the stakes. If I has any concerns it would be the whole animated films based off of a pre established super heroes aren’t as big as their live action counter parts and that it is releasing in a much more crowded marketplace than the first, meaning I think it will be more front loaded as a result. Still I’m expecting it to be big and it may very well go higher than I am predicting.
My predictions:
Opening weekend: $90 million
Domestic total: $277 million
Worldwide total: $700 million
4. Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
After being deemed the savior of the film industry due to the astounding success of Top Gun: Maverick, Tom Cruise is back to risk his life once again in the first part of the final chapter of the long running Mission Impossible franchise. This is another franchise that has been garnering an insane amount of good will ever since Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol re ignited the franchise to top tier blockbuster status with the last installment, Mission Impossible: Fallout, being the biggest of the bunch with $220 million domestic and $791 million globally. Given how well received Fallout was, it stands to reason that this seventh installment will capitalize on that good will to become the biggest in the franchise yet. Helping this one a bit will be how it is following up Tom Cruise’s success with Top Gun Maverick which launched his popularity among movie goers to a whole other stratosphere. Thus Dead Reckoning might benefit a bit from that even if it will likely not reach those same box office heights. The only real concern I have is that it is selling itself as part 1 of 2, which is may mean that some people might be turned off at having to end off on a likely cliff hanger but if it delivers on the goods then I doubt it’ll be much of an issue. I actually have a very good feeling about this one and it could very well end up doing better than I am expecting and end up topping the Summer if everything goes right.
My predictions:
Opening weekend: $93 million
Domestic total: $282 million
Worldwide total: $880 million
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Even though the MCU isn’t quite the dominant show of force at the box office it once was, that doesn’t mean it can’t still pull in very strong grosses, especially when it comes to their more established characters. While Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania was a big disappointment ($474 million globally on a $200 million budget and the lowest grossing of the trilogy), I’m confident that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will succeed in a way that is par for the course for this franchise. Both prior films were huge hits that were extremely well liked by critics and general audiences and the characters are among the most popular ones in the MCU to the point where they serve as solid added value elements for the likes of the last two Avengers movies and Thor: Love and Thunder. Not only that, but this is being sold as the final adventure directed by James Gunn with this version of the team. That will undoubtedly help in raising interest for this installment and it helps that reviews have been very strong thus far with many calling it among the better MCU films in recent memory and a satisfying series finale in its own right. If word of mouth is as good, it could lead to this having better staying power than recent MCU films. While I don’t think it’ll out gross Vol. 2 as I do think there is some MCU fatigue starting to settle in among people and this may not be seen as big of an event given how prevalent the characters have been in other franchise entries I still think it’ll land somewhere in between the original and the second film and still be a solid hit.
My predictions:
Opening weekend: $135 million
Domestic total: $375 million
Worldwide total: $782 million
2. The Little Mermaid
Say what you will about these live action remakes of beloved animated titles from Disney, but there’s no denying that they make huge bank at the box office and I’m expecting this update of The Little Mermaid to be no different. Yes I know there have been many complaints on the internet regarding the look of the film and how not so great the under water effects look and how awkwardly elements have been translated from animation to live action. However, the internet isn’t reflective of the interests of general audiences and we have seen time and time again that people show up in droves for these re imaginings no matter what the critics say. Nostalgia is just a powerful tool and for the most part general audiences tend to like these films well enough, even if they will likely enjoy the originals way more. So the question is will Little Mermaid hit it like Lion King or will it settle for Aladdin grosses (both of which would be huge wins). Personally I think it’ll land somewhere in between as the original is highly beloved and I think the cast should help in making more people interested especially Hailee Berry as Ariel which is being seen as a big win for people of color being able to see themselves onscreen. The question is will general audiences gravitate towards it as much as they did for Aladdin (which got mixed reviews but very good audience word of mouth) and help it leg out through a crowded summer? We’ll have to wait and see on that, but I expect a massive performance all the same and it has a shot at hitting the $1 billion mark when all is said and done.
My predictions:
Opening weekend: $115 million
Domestic total: $400 million
Worldwide total: $1 billion
And my pick for the biggest movie of the summer is…
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Yes that’s right, I’m taking a risk and saying that the long awaited fifth installment in the beloved adventure franchise will be the biggest film of the Summer. Yes, I know it is not a completely surefire bet. The last film Kingdom of the Crystal Skull was a big hit back in 2008 ($317 million domestic and $790 million worldwide) but it was not particularly beloved by most people and while yes there is a fair amount of excitement on the internet for this film, it is unknown whether general audiences have as much of an interest. However I’m inclined to believe that the fact that this is Harrison Ford’s last go around as the character, that the original trilogy is so beloved by many audiences young and old, and that it looks to have all of the adventure, humor, and heart that made the franchise such a beloved piece of pop culture. Plus Disney seems to have a lot of confidence in it as they are premiering it at the Cannes Film Festival meaning they think they have a winner on their hand. While I’m not expecting grosses on par with Top Gun: Maverick, it is possible that if this is well received, it could play like a bit like that in the sense that it is a legacy sequel aimed more towards older audiences that is able to pull in not only that crowd but also younger ones as well. Disney clearly has a lot riding on this (the budget is reported to be $294 million), and there is the possibility that the interest may be lower than expected. Still I have a feeling Dr. Jones will end up leading the Summer and maybe go to become one of the biggest grossers of the year.
My predictions:
Opening weekend: $128 million
Domestic total: $420 million
Worldwide total: $1 billion
Conclusion:
And that just about wraps up my picks for the biggest movies of the summer. There are plenty of other noteworthy films that I am curious to see how they perform such as Book Club: The Next Chapter, Strays, No Hard Feelings, Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, Insidious: The Red Door, Joy Ride, Gran Turismo, The Last Voyage of the Demeter, Blue Beetle, and more. These are just the ones I’m expecting the most from and I’m excited to see how much I get right or wrong. Do you agree or disagree with my picks? Please sound off down below in the comments what your picks for the 15 biggest movies of the summer will be and I look forward in discussing how everything turns out by summer’s end.
Review Time 