Welcome back everybody to a brand new edition of box office predictions! This week is a big one as we have the release of The Super Mario Bros. Movie, a film I have been quite bullish on for quite some time. We also have the release of the Ben Affleck directed sports drama, Air. I have quite a bit to say regarding these two, so without further ado, lets get predicting!
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
First lets get to talking what I fully expect to be one of the biggest, if not the biggest, grossers of the year, which is the long awaited feature length debut of the Italian Plumber in animated form. Now this is one of the most surefire bets of the year… the question is, how high will it score? Lets dig right in!
Pros:
Starting off with a very obvious point, we are talking about what is arguably the most iconic video game franchise of all time. Ever since the release of Donkey Kong in 1981, the franchise has reaches several generations through the release of so many games from the original NES games to Super Mario 64 to Super Mario Galaxy to Super Mario Odyssey. That’s not even mentioning the countless other forms of media the plumber has been in, such as the late 80s to early 90s animated show. Thus, there is going to be a built in interest among many different age groups since this is a property that has been passed down several generations. Of course, plenty of young kids are going to be enthusiastic but there is likely to be a lot of older fans as well, particularly in that 18-34 demographic. Thus this could end up playing like a big four quadrant tentpole on opening weekend at least.
Not only do we have a prolific video game franchise to adapt, but also an animation studio known for churning out big hits in the form of Illumination Entertainment. Say what you will about the movies themselves (I personally find them to be an underappreciated studio), but they know how to market films into big crowd pleasing hits with the likes of Despicable Me, The Secret Life of Pets, and Sing among others. Put them in charge of the most iconic video game series, and you have a guaranteed financial slam dunk. It helps that they have gone all out in marketing this feature, with buzzy trailers that have gotten many fans excited as well plenty of promotional materials that have done the job in making people aware.
Also benefitting Mario is that it is the first outright family film since Puss in Boots: The Last Wish all the way back in December. That is a long time between family friendly outings leaving the little ones with practically nothing aimed at them for three months. Thus it will be easy for Mario to capitalize on that lack of product and I can see families showing up in droves for this. It also has a clear runway for itself in terms of demographic competition until at least The Little Mermaid on May 26th, so it could stick around for a while depending on word of mouth.
Finally there is the matter of where it will stand in terms of video game movies and lucky for it, it will not have a high bar to clear to become the biggest of them all. In terms of opening weekends it needs to surpass the $72 million of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 to become the biggest, which is a guaranteed at this point. It also needs to pass that film domestically ($190 million) which should be no problem. Globally it needs to get past the $439 million gross of Warcraft in order to become the biggest on that front. Keep in mind, that film only got to that number because it was huge in China ($220 million there alone, but it was extremely front loaded meaning Chinese audiences didn’t like it very much) as it didn’t crack $50 million the States. Given that Mario is popular all over the globe, it should be able to fare good enough to push it over that mark, that the biggest grossing video game movie can be an actual hit movie.
Honestly this is one of those releases where there is not a whole lot wrong going against it with there only being one factor to be slightly concerned for.
Cons:
I will admit, the reviews have been a lot more mixed than I was expecting them to be. Now I am expecting this movie to be critic proof as I think the hype surrounding the film is just too big and even many of pans have mentioned that the film will please kids and those who are die hard Mario fans. That being said, just by reading some of the reviews, it seems that this one may be a little more youth skewing than many were expecting given how multi generational this property is. Granted that is likely not going to affect the film on opening weekend, but it does make me wonder how the film will fare leg wise if it isn’t going to bring out more kinds of audience members afterwards.
Final thoughts:
In all I’m still expecting a tremendous performance from The Super Mario Bros. Movie and I believe it will shatter all video game movie related records. I think it will have a fri-sun opening just over $90 million and it has a genuine shot at making over $140 million for the 5-day holiday frame. In terms of domestic totals, I expect it to over take Minions: The Rise of Gru to become the biggest Illumination film, as well as the biggest animated film in the pandemic era. Should it play strong internationally, $1 billion is certainly a possibility and I think it may be one of a handful of films this year that could get cross that mark, but since that has become something of a rare mark for movies to pass, I’ll predict closer to $900 million.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend 3-day: $94 million
Opening weekend 5-day: $145 million
Domestic total: $375 million
Worldwide total: $930 million
Could the movie soar higher or lower and still be considered a massive win? Absolutely. When all is said and done I fully expect this to end up being among the biggest grossers of the year. Ever since this movie was announced I always expected that it would be a box office monster and it looks like that will indeed be the case.
Air
Aiming to counter program the Italian plumber is Ben Affleck’s latest directorial feature, Air, which tells the story of the Air Jordan line of shoes from Nike. This is Amazon’s latest chance to make a splash in terms of theatrical productions. Will perform a box office slam dunk or will it be as worn out as some old Nike sneakers. Let’s dig right in!
Pros:
Ben Affleck is someone has had numerous well regarded hits on his hands as a director. In the last decade he had both The Town ($154 million globally on a $37 million budget) and Argo ($232 million on a $44 million budget, along with an Academy Award for best picture) which both did quite well. Sure his last film as a director, Live by Night (a paltry $22 million globally on a $65 million budget) didn’t do very well, but that one wasn’t very well received and a less appealing film (a dark crime drama). Air on the other hand has been sold as a fun time, with Amazon going all in on marketing this film through various trailers and using their various platforms.
Helping Air greatly is that reviews have been fantastic with many calling this among the best of Affleck’s directorial career. With audience word of mouth likely to be strong as well, and there being a built in appeal among basketball fans, this is one that could leg out over the coming weeks as the big movie for adults.
Finally the film has an all star cast that includes the likes of Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, Viola Davis, Jason Bateman, Marlon Wayans, and Chris Tucker. While none of them are butts in seats draws on their own, putting them together in one movie certainly adds some value to the movie and could attract potential moviegoers.
I’m feeling quite confident in Air’s prospects as I think the buzz is good enough to justify such optimism. That being said, there are still some things to think about.
Cons:
Mid budget movies aimed at adults have had a rough go lately with many audiences just not viewing them as theatrically worthy. That may prevent Air from truly breaking out to such an extent to be a bona fide smash, but the fact that the reviews are great and the film looks entertaining will more than help it out.
I’m not really sure how much appeal this one is going to have internationally as it seems like the type of film that will do well in North America, but not quite break out overseas. Maybe I’m wrong but I just have no idea how this one will do in that regard.
Finally the budget is reported to be between $70-90 million! That is frankly an insane amount of money to spend on a movie like this. That being said it was originally intended for streaming, it might matter less to Amazon if this doesn’t quite recoup its budget since it was initially not intended for theatrical release in the first place.
Final thoughts:
In all, I’m expecting great buzz and word of mouth to carry Air to a solid domestic total and it looks to perform better than recent older skewing movies. I think a performance on par with A Man Called Otto or Ticket to Paradise seems likely as it like those movies it is an older skewing crowd pleaser. I’m unsure of international appeal, but let’s just predict a global haul similar to the former (over/under $110 million).
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend 3-day: $12 million
Opening weekend 5-day: $19 million
Domestic total: $64 million
Worldwide total: $103 million
I feel this numbers would be more than good enough for Amazon as they look to expand their horizons to theatrical distribution and its a good first movie to test their strategy with. Here’s hoping it does well so that more studios will be more willing to greenlight more adult driven studio programmers like it.
Holdover Business:
Now let’s take a look at any notable holdover business from last weekend.
Topping the box office was Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves which over performed expectations with a $37 million opening weekend. That is indeed higher than what many had it doing and the word of mouth has been very strong on this one which could lead to a solid box office run, especially if it survives alongside The Super Mario Bros. Movie. That being said this isn’t a fantastic start for a movie that cost $150 million to make, meaning it is really going to have to pull its weight both in terms of legs and international grosses (it has made $80 million globally thus far). Still for a project that seemed to exist just because Paramount had the IP up their disposal, they did a great enough job in selling it that this could count as a relative win, cost notwithstanding.
Dropping a slightly harder than expected was John Wick: Chapter 4, which dropped 61% in its second weekend for a $28 million weekend gross. Given the great reviews, buzz, and word of mouth, many were hoping for a better hold than that. That being said this is a nearly 3 hour, R-rated action movie with an ending that isn’t exactly super happy, so it is not totally surprising all things considered (especially as it lost its specialty screen to Dungeons & Dragons). Still its stands at $130 million domestic and $250 million global as it looks to become the biggest grosser of the series. Plus, it could very well recover as did Chapter 3 (which dropped 56% in weekend 2) and leg out to a good total. We’ll just have to wait and see.
In various other news milestones Scream VI is inching towards $100 million domestic and has passed $150 million globally, while Creed III has nears $150 million domestic and is at over $260 million worldwide. Shazam! Fury of the Gods is at $54 million domestic (or about what the original made in its opening weekend) as it looks to crawl past $60 million, while 65 has passed $30 million domestic and $55 million worldwide.
Conclusion:
And that just about wraps up this weekend’s edition of box office predictions! Looking ahead to next weekend, we have a very horror centric one coming up as we have the horror comedy, Renfield, starring Nicolas Cage as Dracula as well as Russell Crowe in The Pope’s Exorcist. I look forward in predicting how those will perform as well as seeing how Mario and Air do. Please feel free to share your thoughts down below in the comments and as always, see you guys later!
Review Time 