Welcome back everybody to a brand new edition of box office predictions! This week I’ll be taking a look at one film entering wide theatrical release, which is Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, a move that has become one of the more fascinating films to look at in terms of box office prospects. Without further ado, lets get predicting!
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
The iconic role playing game returns to the big screen with a big budget adaptation that Paramount hopes will make a big splash financially. Will it end up slaying its way to victory, or will the studio need to re think its strategy with IP like this going forward. Lets dig right in!
Pros:
Ever since it was created in 1974, the Dungeons & Dragons brand, has gone on to enjoy a nice longevity throughout the decades with plenty of people highly enjoying either playing it or watching the large amount of media that is either directly adapted or inspired by it. Just recently it has enjoyed a bit of a resurgence in popularity thanks to its role in the hit TV show, Stranger Things, and with the animated show on Amazon Prime, The Legend of Vox Machina. Thus there is an awareness of the brand in question that could help this movie grab some attention.
Helping matters is that Paramount has shown an insane amount of confidence in the film and are selling it hard. They’ve been marketing the heck out of it with fun trailers that promise a fun adventure even for those that aren’t die hard fans of Dungeons & Dragons. Plus they screened the film very early at SXSW in March and have done plenty of early previews in order to spread the positive word of mouth.
Reviews have been very strong with the consensus being that it is a very fun good old fashioned adventure that delivers exactly what it promises while also working for fans and non fans alike. These early notices have certainly helped in building buzz in the feature.
Even though it will face a pretty major hurdle in its second weekend with the release of a certain Italian plumber’s film, there is a lack of films of this nature until Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in May. If audience word of mouth is as strong as the critics, then I can see solid staying power in the weeks to come for this one.
Finally, there is the matter of the last time Dungeons & Dragons made the leap to the big screen back in 2000 starring the likes of Jeremy Irons, and Marlon Wayans. That did not turn out very well as it was critically panned and only made $33 million worldwide on a $45 million budget. However outside of people who are into movies and box office… do general audiences even remember it, or even know of its existence? I think enough time has passed that people will be willing to give this new adaptation a chance, regardless of how the last attempt fared.
So this is a release that definitely has the potential to over perform given just how well Paramount has marketed it. That being said there are still some reasons to be cautiously optimistic.
Cons:
With this project I have had two mentalities regarding it for the longest time: this sounds like a lot of fun and this is a huge financial question mark. Simply put, commercially speaking this seems like one of those movies that the studio greenlights for the sake of using it because they have the IP, no matter if audiences care for that IP or not. It is something that happens time and again, and more often than not it ends in disaster (take Paramount’s Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins for example). Granted, Honor Among Thieves could end up bucking this trend precisely because word of mouth has been so good.
As much as I love the cast for this movie (Chris Pine, Michelle Rodriguez, Justice Smith, Hugh Grant, etc.), none of them are what I would call butts in the seats stars that can pull in audiences in droves. That being said, them being together in a bog budget medieval fantasy could be appealing to many, but we’ll see.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie coming out 5 days after this movie’s release could hurt as it will likely take away a lot of the audience attention especially in regards to the pop culture fan sphere.
Finally, there is the fact of the film’s budget as it is reported to be over $150 million. That is a pretty hefty amount for a potential franchise starter that isn’t a guaranteed box office smash. In fact I’d argue spending $150 million on a Dungeons & Dragons reboot in this theatrical environment is financial suicide (with the caveat that this was greenlit pre covid). So this could be a case of the film pulling in okay numbers for the type of film it is and still not being a hit because it just cost too much to make.
Final thoughts:
In all I am feeling both hopeful and cautious about Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves at the box office. I think a good comparison point would be last year’s Uncharted which overperformed expectations and was able to hit it big by appealing to both fans of the video games and general audiences who just want a fun time at the movies. I think an opening on par with that film (in the $40 million range) is possible and legs will likely strong as well. Internationally is a question mark, but I can see it at least getting to $300 million if word of mouth is strong.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $40 million
Domestic total: $135 million
Worldwide total: $340 million
While not a blockbuster, given the budget, I can see Paramount being satisfied enough with this to consider exploring this world some more. Plus, I can see home media sales being very strong when the time comes. No matter what happens, at the very least Paramount did their best with marketing this and really went above and beyond in getting the word out there. Here’s hoping it will pay off!
Holdover Business:
Now lets take a look at any notable holdover business from this past weekend.
Coming in hot was John Wick: Chapter 4 which opened to a franchise best $73 million in its opening weekend. That is right in line with where I predicted ($75 million) and it is a 22% increase from the last film’s $56 million opening. John Wick has now become the rare franchise that has reached 4 entries where each one has made more than the last (with no decade long waits in between to boot). A terrific result and it continues this month’s streak of franchise entries opening to series best debuts with the others being Creed III and Scream VI. With superb word of mouth and white hot buzz, I expect long legs for this one. Internationally it debuted to a franchise best $66 million and it has thus far made $152 million globally.
Shazam! Fury of the Gods took a huge tumble in its second weekend dropping 69% for a $9 million weekend. It now stands just under $50 million and looks to land in the $65-70 million range which is pretty disastrous for a movie of this scale. Globally isn’t much better as it earned just over $100 million and may end up being the lowest grossing DCEU film globally. This is an unfortunate misfire and it shows that maybe there wasn’t too much demand for a Shazam! sequel (although the re shuffling over at DC certainly didn’t help). Still, here’s hoping those involved move on to fortune and glory else where.
Meanwhile Scream VI and Creed III both made over $8 million this past weekend bringing their domestic totals up to $91 million and $140 million respectively. Creed III has now become the biggest Rocky/Creed film domestically unadjusted for inflation while Scream VI should get there eventually. Creed III also nears $250 million global while Scream VI is at $140 million.
In other tid bits, 65 continues to hold better than expected as it nears $30 million domestic and $50 million global, while Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania now stands at around $210 million as it looks to become the lowest grossing film that opened above $100 million (the previous one being X-Men: The Last Stand which did $234 million back in 2006 from an $102 million fri-sun opening). Also Cocaine Bear topped $60 million domestic, Jesus Revolution nears $50 million, and Avatar: The Way of Water has passed Avengers: Infinity War domestically to become the seventh biggest domestic earner.
Conclusion:
And that just about wraps up this weekend’s edition of box office predictions! Join me next week as we have the release of The Super Mario Bros. Movie which I have a very good feeling about. We also have the release of Ben Affleck’s new film, Air, which is Amazon’s latest attempt to get into the theatrical game. Other than that, please sound off down below in the comments on how you think Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves will fare and as always see you guys later!
Review Time 