Welcome back everyone to a brand new edition of box office predictions! This week we will be talking about one big movie hitting wide release this weekend which is the 4th installment in one of the most acclaimed action movie series in recent memory, John Wick: Chapter 4. This has been one release I’ve been interested in seeing how it performs for a very long time. With that said let’s get predicting!
John Wick: Chapter 4
Arriving 4 years after the last installment, and after many delays due to the Pandemic (it was at one point set for May 2021) Keanu Reeves returns as the “Baba Yaga” for a 4th time. Will he end up making a killing at the box office, or has he reached his limits? Let’s dig right in!
Pros:
I might as well start out by talking about how this franchise has become one of the biggest box office miracles I have seen in recent memory. How so? Well, let’s look at the numbers:
- The first John Wick came out in October of 2014 and no one was really expecting much from it. It had gone through a tough development process to the big screen as it had trouble finding a distributor (largely due to lack of confidence in Keanu Reeves’s star power) until just two months before it eventually came out. There was a chance it might’ve ended up going straight to VOD. However Lionsgate picked it up at the last minute and gave it a full on wide release in theaters, with IMAX screens to boot. Thanks to a strong last minute marketing campaign and great reviews and word of mouth, the film was able to put perform expectations by opening with $14 million, coming in second place to the horror film, Ouija. It topped out at $43 million domestic and $86 million worldwide, which was more than good enough on a $20 million budget. Those who saw it in theaters liked and recommended it to people who would go on to catch up with the film through home media. It did well enough to the point where a sequel was green lit.
- John Wick: Chapter 2 then came out in February of 2017 and with a lot of good will from the first, strong reviews, and great trailers that promised a bigger adventure, the film was able to more than double the opening of the first, with a debut of $30 million. It was able to increase 113% from the last film’s domestic total with $92 million and 102% globally for $174 million on a $40 million budget. With numbers like these a third installment was inevitable.
- And then comes John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum which came out in May of 2019. Now it was expected given the insane amount of goodwill from the previous entries that this would be the best performing of the bunch. However the extent to which it overperformed was what shocked us. It opened to a whopping $56 million (nearly double what 2 did) and was actually able to dethrone Avengers: Endgame from the top of the weekend charts, which which was in its 4th weekend. It was then able to leg out to $171 million domestic (85% increase from 2) and globally it made $328 million (88% increase from 2) on a $75 million budget. This despite opening during a crowded summer movie season. Heck domestically it came very close to the $173 million earned by the arguably more high profile Fast and Furious spin off, Hobbs & Shaw.
These types of increases are almost unheard of for movie franchises in this day and age, especially for ones that release movies on the regular with no decade long wait in between. Plus this has become a rare franchise where each installment makes more than the last both domestically and globally. These numbers are just insane especially when one considers the humble beginnings of this series and it just shows just how much goodwill the franchise has.
Helping matters is that buzz for this one has been off the charts. Reviews and early reactions have been extremely positive with many even considering it their personal favorite of the franchise and that it delivers what one would want from it. Trailers have also done a great job in selling the picture.
Plus given that the last installment ended on something of a cliffhanger, there will be plenty of people curious to see what happens next in what May or may not be the last installment for a while (the director has stated they want to take a break from the franchise).
Finally, the film will benefit from the fact that it stands out from the rest of the big movies coming out this month as it is a hard R-rated action movie that looks to appeal to an audience that hasn’t had such a film in quite some time.
If I’m going to be honest this is one of those releases where there is not a whole lot going against with even the cons not being huge deal breakers.
Cons:
The John Wick franchise has always skewed a bit more domestic when it comes to box office as internationally they always performed about on par or just a tad below what they do in the States. Now the hope for this installment pre COVID was that this series would play like Fast and Furious, Mission Impossible, and the Bourne Saga did on the fourth go around and do gangbusters overseas. Now I’m not as certain that that’s going to happen, especially since this one won’t have Russia and presumably China to help out (the other three did not play there). However Creed III has been doing very well overseas as it looks to become the biggest one in the trilogy internationally, so that gives me hope that this will do likewise.
There is also the small matter of the movie’s runtime which is reported to be over 2 hours and 45 minutes, which may make people a little hesitant to go see it right away. That being said as we’ve seen with movies like Avatar: The Way of Water, people will show up to long movies if they deliver the goods.
Final thoughts:
Honestly there is little that is actively going against John Wick: Chapter 4 as it looks to be as big as one would expect given the massive amount of goodwill the franchise has earned. I think it will easily pass the $49 million opening of Halloween Kills to become the biggest R-rated debut of the pandemic era. I also think it has a shot of opening bigger than other recent installments in successful action franchises like F9: The Fast Saga, No Time to Die, Bad Boys for Life, and Mission Impossible: Fallout. If audiences like it as much as they liked the others I can see it at least being as leggy as the other ones. I’m also expecting a strong overseas haul that could push it to become the biggest in the franchise globally as well.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $75 million
Domestic total: $210 million
Worldwide total: $420 million
If it ends up making a tad less than this, then that would be no tragedy in the slightest. Still there’s just something about this one that has me confident as this franchise has defied the odds in terms of what is expected for something like it. It truly is remarkable just how far this series has gone and it truly is a rarity in this day and age.
Holdover Business:
Now it’s time to take a look at any notable holdover business from last weekend.
In first place was Shazam! Fury of the Gods, which unfortunately doesn’t mean much. It opened to a disappointing $30 million, which is not only well below the $53 million opening of the original, but is also the lowest opening for a DCEU movie that was released exclusively to theaters (both Wonder Woman 1984 and The Suicide Squad were both released day and date in theaters and HBO Max). It’s even below the $33 million opening of Birds of Prey. Overseas isn’t much better as it had a global opening just below $70 million. This is yet another case of a sequel to a well liked original not matching up to its predecessor and there were a lot of people who fair or not viewed this as not worth their time due to the up coming DC re set. On a reported budget between $100-$125 million, mixed reviews, and some harsh competition coming soon, this one is likely to not last much longer in terms of legs.
Scream VI had a second weekend drop of 61% which is about as expected for a horror movie. Still the movie looks to pass Scream (2022) very soon ($81 million) and has already heard close to $120 million worldwide. It looks to pass $100 million domestic when all is said and done. Not bad for Ghostface’s sixth go around. Meanwhile Adonis Creed’s lasted venture continues to hold strong, now standing at over $130 million domestic and $226 million worldwide.
65 actually held better than expected as it dropped 52%. Given the reviews and lack of buzz this is actually not too bad. It stands at $23 million domestic and $40 million global. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is at $206 million domestic and $463 million global. It should at the very least get pass Ant-Man and the Wasp domestically.
In other news, Cocaine Bear nears $60 million domestic, Jesus Revolution is quietly making its way toward $50 million, and Champions crossed $10 million in its second weekend.
Conclusion:
And that just about wraps up this weekend’s edition of box office predictions! Next week sees an interesting release to look at in terms of box office, in Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves which has been getting very strong buzz since it premiered at SXSW. Until then, please feel free to share your own predictions down below and whether you too are very confident in the “Baba Yaga” or not. See you guys later!
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