Hello everybody and welcome to the latest edition of box office editions! Today I will be taking at just one new wide release this week, which is the latest film from DC Films, Shazam! Fury of the Gods. There has been a lot of chatter in regards to this one’s prospects and I myself will see if I can try and accurately pinpoint how it could do. Without further ado, lets get predicting!
Shazam! Fury of the Gods
The latest film from DC hits theaters and it is the sequel to the super hero comedy, Shazam! which came out back in 2019. This is one that has moved up and down the release schedule so many times, however it is finally ready to be released. Will lighting strike again with this one, or will this performance show that even Gods can bleed a little? Lets dive right in!
Pros:
The original Shazam! was a solid hit back when it came out back in April of 2019. It opened with $53 million, which was pretty solid for a DC super hero origin concerning a character that isn’t that well known among casual audiences. The fact that the concept (essentially “Big but done as a super hero origin) was appealing, certainly helped. It was legging out pretty well… until Avengers: Endgame kneecapped it in its fourth weekend and it ended up finishing with $140 million domestic and $365 million worldwide. Still that was a solid result on a $90-$100 million budget, and it ended up turning a profit.
Not only did it fare well financially, but it also got a very solid reception. The reviews were very good with many critics calling it a highlight of the DCEU, and audiences seemed to really like it as well, to the point where I think its gross would have been a bit higher had it not come out right before Endgame. Thus there will be plenty people who will be eager to see these characters again.
The trailers have promised that this will maintain a similar tone as the original as well as a bigger role for the rest of the Shazam family who appeared at the climax of the first film. I can tell you from seeing the film in theaters that there was a lot of enthusiasm when that happened, so I think there will be plenty who will be excited to see more of them.
Benefitting this film is that it more so than most super hero franchises, this is one that is likely to skew to a lot of families thanks to the fact that they lean a bit more on the comedic side. This can help in terms of staying power and could lead to potential back loading through out its opening weekend.
Finally while reviews haven’t been as great for this one as they were for the original and are honestly on the mixed side, it still seems like this one at the very least still delivers what one would want from a Shazam movie and there are a number of people who did really like it. Plus this could be a situation like Uncharted, the Venom films, or Black Adam where audiences end up liking it more.
Honestly if this film were opening in a non Covid environment where DC was still doing fine, I think it could have had potential to become a break out sequel as the ingredients are there. However some things have been happening lately that have unfortunate made its prospects somewhat grim.
Cons:
The big thing turning off many fans about this one is the fact that now that James Gunn is the head of DC films, he is gearing up for something of a soft reset of the universe (though how much of a reset has yet to be determined). Thus many are viewing this film as not worth the investment because they think it won’t connect to what Gunn has in store. Fair or not (personally I frankly hate this type of mentality as I don’t feel movies should be seen as cogs in a machine… but that’s a whole other conversation), many fans seem to have this mindset and that leaves this in a possession not unlike with Dark Phoenix a couple years ago.
Not helping matters, is that Warner Bros. seems to be quietly dumping this one. While there have been the standard marketing materials, it feels like they haven’t been as aggressive with this one and buzz hasn’t really been all that high in recent weeks. It seems like even they have this same “it doesn’t really mean anything now” mentality, which is kind of insane when you consider how well received the original was and also a very smart way of thinking. I mean David F. Sandberg literally stated that this franchise could theoretically continue with James Gunn’s plan if people show up, and it seems like that has fallen on many deaf ears.
It will also face some substantial demographic competition in the weeks ahead as we have both Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (which has had a very strong reception coming out of SXSW) and The Super Mario Bros. Movie gunning for the same family/younger demographics, which will definitely take a bite out of Shazam’s legs.
Finally, there have been plenty of instances in the past where a financially successful, yet poorly/indifferently received film ends up spawning a less successful (yet often times better received) follow up with some notable ones being the 2014 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles reboot, The Angry Birds Movie, and Suicide Squad among others. However there have actually been some instances where film is a big hit and well liked by many, yet it spawns a sequel that fails to reach the same success. Some examples include The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, Happy Feet 2, and The Secret Life of Pets 2. Now all of these had their reasons as to why they underperformed, but it is still somewhat odd when a well genuinely well liked comes along, and then the audiences just don’t show up to the sequel even if it is well received.
Final thoughts:
Unfortunately my expectations for Shazam! Fury of the Gods are not very high, due to many factors that are just beyond the movie’s control. I have a feeling it will open about on par with similar under performing sequels to financially successful films like The Lego Movie 2 or Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (over/under $35 million) and will probably finish in between those as well (between $80-100 million). International is a bit of a coin toss but I have the feeling that will most likely finish just slightly above $200 million.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $35 million
Domestic total: $87 million
Worldwide total: $215 million
Definitely not a great performance, but at the very least the movie cost about the same as the original, so at the very least it won’t be an expensive disappointment. Now this is one where I’m hoping I’m wrong. I want this movie to do well and prove the nay sayers wrong as there are a surprising number of people who are actively rooting for this to fail. No matter what happens though, I hope that director, David F. Sandberg will still get plenty of opportunities in the future for more work as I think he is a talented filmmaker and I look forward in watching Fury of the Gods and making my own opinion about it.
Holdover Business:
Now lets take a look at any notable holdover business from last weekend.
The top openers was Scream VI which debut to a franchise best opening weekend of $44 million, beating out the unadjusted $34 million opening weekend gross of Scream 3 back in 2000. In terms of pandemic era horror movie openings it is right in line with Jordan Peele’s Nope and stands only behind A Quiet Place Part II and Halloween Kills. Not too bad for the sixth installment in a once long dormant horror franchise as it had plenty of goodwill from the last installment, solid reviews, and a strong marketing campaign. Given the good word of mouth (it scored a very good for horror cinema score of B+) this one may end up sticking around more than other horror movies that opened to a similar amount. If it legs like the last one, then it gets to over/under $120 million which would also be a franchise best unadjusted for inflation. Globally it stands at $80 million and could become the biggest globally also if it sticks around. Either way this continues what has been an impressive show of force for this franchise and all of this despite Neve Campbell not returning as Sydney Prescott for this one. Just goes to show just how people have connected with these new characters.
Speaking of successful examples of legacy sequels, Creed III held firm as it dropped 53%, from its $58 million opening which is not bad for a movie that opens to a number like that. It now stands at $110 million domestic and $188 million worldwide as it looks to make a play for the biggest grosser in the Rocky/Creed franchise unadjusted for inflation. With strong word of mouth and a lack of similar types of movies, it could hold very well in the weeks ahead.
Coming in third was the Adam Driver dinosaur thriller, 65, which actually did slightly better than expected. It opened with $12 million domestic which honestly isn’t too bad for a poorly received film that didn’t have press screenings until the very last minute. I guess Adam Driver’s star power did some help as well as the fact that we don’t get many big budget dinosaur movies outside of the Jurassic franchise. Granted word of mouth isn’t very good among audiences (a not very good C+ cinemascore), so it may not leg out all that much, but it didn’t cost as much as many had thought (the production budget is reported to be $45 million without tax rebates), so while it likely won’t be a hit, it won’t be a huge disaster either.
There was also another wide opener that I forgot to mention last weekend when doing my predictions and that is the under the radar sports comedy, Champions directed by Peter Farrelly and starring Woody Harrelson. It opened with $5 million which honestly isn’t terrible for a film that went somewhat under the radar for many. Word of mouth is actually pretty good so it may leg out a bit even if the numbers won’t be spectacular.
Meanwhile Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania actually had a pretty good hold in its fourth weekend as dropped 44% compared to a 69% second weekend drop and a 59% third weekend drop. That being said, it is just now crossing $200 million (might be among the slowest $100 million+ openers to reach that mark), and it is not yet a guaranteed that’ll out gross Ant-Man and the Wasp domestically. Things look worse globally as it stands at $451 million and may not get to $500 million. Look, I hate to be a downer about this, but this is a pretty big disappointment given just how much Marvel was trying to sell this as the next big chapter and the $200 million budget and I think there are definitely a lot of lessons to take away from it.
In other tid bits, Cocain Bear has topped $50 million domestic and is displaying solid staying power. It stands at $68 million globally and looks to break even theatrically. Oh and Avatar: The Way of Water has passed Titanic to become the 8th biggest domestic earner with $675 million and it might pass Avengers: Infinity War to become the seventh. It also nears $2.3 billion globally. Plus Puss in Boots: The Last Wish has topped $180 million domestic and $460 million worldwide.
Conclusion:
And that just about wraps ups this week’s edition of box office predictions! Next week we have another big release coming out and that is John Wick Chapter 4, a movie that I myself am quite bullish on. Until then, please feel free to share your thoughts on Shazam’s box office prospects down below in the comments and I’ll see you guys next time!
Review Time 