Welcome back everybody to a brand new edition of box office predictions! We only have one movie hitting wide release this weekend, but its a big one. Today we are going to talk about the latest entry in the MCU, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. There is a lot that has been on my mind with regards to this release as its one of those releases that is sure to do well… the question is how well. Without further ado, lets get predicting!
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
The third installment of Marvel’s Ant-Man trilogy finally arrives to kick off Phase 5 of the MCU in a presumably big way. Not gonna lie, out of the three MCU films set for release this year, this is the one that I am the most curious to see how it performs in regards to box office as there is quite a bit at stake in regards to this film. Will it end up pulling in some large grosses or will the haul be as tiny as the Quantum Realm itself? Lets dig right in!
Pros:
Both of the prior Ant-Man films were solid hits back when they first came out with the original film opening with $57 million, and then legging out to $180 million domestic (still among the leggier MCU films) and $519 million worldwide. Ant-Man and the Wasp did even better when it opened in 2018, opening with $75 million and finishing with $216 million domestic and $622 million globally. Both were well received by audiences and critics and, not dissimilar to Dr. Strange, the character of Scott Lang has proven to be a solid added value element in the big team up movies like Captain America: Civil War and Avengers: Endgame which in turn increase his popularity.
Not only is this the latest installment in a well liked set of films, it is also being sold as a very important chapter in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Whereas the first two films were smaller scale efforts with low stakes and stand alone in the grand scheme of things, this one is set to up the ante with world changing events being teased, a more serious tone, and being the big screen introduction of Kang the Conqueror (played by Jonathan Majors, who played the character in Loki) who is being set up as the next big bad of the MCU after Thanos. This has been the big talking/selling point of this film as many fans are excited to see how this movie ties into the grand scheme of things.
A while back when I did my prediction for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, I did an extensive look at how MCU sequels tended to perform when compared to their predecessor and they have a very good track record with only two follow ups (Avengers: Age of Ultron and the aforementioned Black Panther sequel) not being able to outgross their predecessors. While I’m not going to be quite that in depth here (I’m saving that for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 as I want to see how this one does first), I will mention that MCU threequels actually have an even better batting average. From Iron Man 3 to all the way to Spider: Man No Way Home, there has not been one third installment in an MCU franchise that failed to outgross the movies that had come out before it. This bodes well for Quantumania and is very likely considering that it does not have a huge benchmark to clear in order to become the biggest Ant-Man film, both domestically and worldwide.
Finally, it will most certainly benefit from being the first big four quadrant tent pole since Avatar: The Way of Water came out back in December. Naturally there are those who are hungry for a big film like this and also helping it is that it has a couple weeks as the big super hero movie in town until Shazam! Fury of the Gods on March 17th.
So I’m expecting this movie to do fine due to the reasons I mentioned above and I’m expecting solid numbers no matter what. However my confidence in the film has gone done a bit down to some notable factors.
Cons:
First off, while the Ant-Man films have done well, they’ve never been among the biggest grossers of the MCU. Both of them ended up being the lowest grossing films of phases 2 and 3 respectively, this despite being well received and Scott Lang’s profile increasing due to his appearance in Captain America: Civil War. Thus there is a bit of hesitation in predicting this one to outgross Ant-Man and the Wasp by a whole lot, even though I think it will. Now would say that this could end up like a Thor: Ragnarok situation as the two Ant-Man movies played similar to the first two Thor movies in both domestic ($181 million > $206 million > $315 million) and global grosses ($449 million > $644 million $854 million). However, Thor: Ragnarok benefitted from a terrific marketing campaign that featured fantastic and crowd pleasing trailers that promised a more comical tone and colorful visuals to boot as well as an appearance from the Hulk. It also had great reviews with the consensus being that it was the best Thor movie yet and that it worked as a fun time at the movies. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania doesn’t quite have that same type of buzz…
This brings me to my next point and that is that the reviews and early reactions thus far… have not been great. As of this writing it has become only the second MCU film to ever, after Eternals, to receive a rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes with most of the reviews being rather mediocre. The main consensus seems to be that the movie is so bogged down in trying to set up the MCU’s future that it fails to capture the charm of the Ant-Man films and that it is one of the more generic films to come out of the franchise. This is not what I’d call great buzz and while I think opening weekend will be alright (largely because the die-hard fans are going to rush to see this no matter what), I don’t have a very good feeling about the legs, especially if audience reactions are similar. It doesn’t help that many of the most recent MCU films (in particular the ones that weren’t meet with overwhelmingly positive buzz) have been more front loaded than is normal for this franchise.
One big factor I mentioned above in the pros, was in regards to how this is being sold as an important event film which is definitely a plus in getting the fans onboard… yet it also is a bit of a risk. One reason why the MCU has been able to dominate the moviegoing landscape for so long is that their films (in particular, the solo films) tend to be very accessible to newcomers and provide plenty of stand alone entertainment value, regardless of how much of the franchise one follows. The interconnectivity is mostly seen by general audiences as a nice little bonus and not the main course. We have seen time and time again how many different studios have failed to start their own cinematic universe precisely because they were too focused on setting up a cinematic universe that they forgot to tell a compelling story first (*glances at Universal’s infamous failure that is known as the Dark Universe). Thus when you take a character like Ant-Man, whose films are known for being fun, light hearted, stand alone adventures and strip off everything that made those films appealing to normal moviegoers in favor of a more generic sci fi tone with big franchise set up… that could very well alienate a number of people who liked these films for what they were. Plus I’m very curious as to how many general audiences who haven’t seen Loki, know who Kang is and that he is the next big bad of the MCU, because if not than those trailers (which have heavily emphasized him) sure do seem very confusing.
Finally, one last point I want to mention is that moreso than most MCU franchises, Ant-Man tends to rely heavily on China to get to the numbers it has reached (the original made $109 million there, while the sequel made $125 million). Without China, Ant-Man would not have gotten to $500 million and Ant-Man and the Wasp would not have gotten to $600 million. Now Quantumania is set to release in that marketplace (it is the second MCU film to be released there after Black Panther: Wakanda Forever which has not made a whole lot there), but the Chinese theatrical landscape is in a much different place than it was back in 2018 when super hero movies were dominating there. Thus, this is going to be a pretty big test case as to if the MCU still has a pull among Chinese audiences. If not, then this one is really going to have to pull its weight else where in terms of grosses.
Final thoughts:
In all I’m expecting Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania to do well, but not as well as I would have predicted a month ago, due to all of the things I mentioned above. I think it will open well and potentially get over $100 million in its first weekend due to the anticipation among fans due to Kang and the fact that it is the first big budget tentpole in a while. However with the buzz it has been getting, I expect its staying power to be weak, and it will likely play like among the more frontloaded MCU installments. Globally it should do fine although I’m expecting a gross closer to $700 million than $800 million (I mean if Black Panther: Wakanda Forever couldn’t even get $900 million then I have hard time believing this out of all movies will pull it off).
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $108 million
Domestic total: $257 million
Worldwide total: $715 million
Now some may consider this underperformance, although to be frank given the divisive response, there numbers are pretty darn good especially if you just look at this as “Ant-Man 3” and not “Kang Strikes First”. Plus, Marvel is likely to be fine as they have the more surefire likes of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Marvels set for this year. Plus if it does end up performing lower than hoped, then this could be a lesson in not trying to bog their projects down by making them into these big, important chapters that serve to set up something bigger down the pipeline… but instead to craft a solid stand alone product first.
Holdover Business:
Now lets take a look at any notable holdover business that occurred this past weekend.
Coming in first place was Magic Mike’s Last Dance which opened to $8 million, just a tad below the $10 million I predicted. Now that is the lowest debut for this franchise, however it is not too far below the $12 million fri-sun opening weekend gross of Magic Mike XXL back in 2015. Plus keep in mind the film only opened in around 1,400 theaters so it could potentially have made more had it gone full on wide. Luckily, Warner Bros. plans on expanding the theater count to over 3,000 venues this upcoming weekend which could help it maintain solid staying power. While the $40 million budget means it might not quite be huge theatrical hit, going this route will most certainly help raise its profile once it hits home media.
We also had the re release of Titanic come in at number 3 right behind Avatar: The Way of Water (which is soon to pass Jurassic World as the ninth biggest domestic earner as it stands at $649 million), and it was able to make $6 million. That brings the beloved classic’s overall domestic total to $669 million and $2.225 billion globally (just a tad ahead of Way of Water’s $2.217 billion cume). Boy, I’m sure James Cameron is really upset that his two huge blockbusters keep battling for that number 3 spot on the all time global charts.
Last weekend’s releases had fairly steep drops (then again every film suffered a heavy Sunday decline thanks to the Super Bowl). 80 for Brady dropped a sharper than expected 54% from its $12 million opening. Its total now is $27 million and I still think it can post solid post second weekend legs given the fact that it is targeting an older movie going demographic. Knock at the Cabin dropped 61% from its $14 million opening as it now stands at $26 million. That hold is about the same as Old’s second weekend drop. While its not a barn burner by any means, its still likely to break even i theatrical when all is said and done as it only cost $20 million to make.
In other tid bits, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish continues to rack up some great numbers as it has now topped $160 million domestic and $400 million global. Domestically, it is likely to pass Black Adam very soon to become the tenth biggest domestic grosser of 2022. Meanwhile the likes of A Man Called Otto ($58 million domestic and $93 million global), M3GAN ($91 million domestic and $167 million global), and Missing ($27 million domestic) continue to put up good holds and show how useful good audience word of mouth can be.
Conclusion:
And that just about wraps up this weekend’s edition of box office predictions! I’ll be back next week as we have two new movies entering wide release, the horror-comedy, Cocaine Bear, and the faith based dramady, Jesus Revolution. We will also see how Ant-Man performs this weekend and whether it can weather the lackluster reception. Please, let me know how you think the tiniest Avenger will fare at the box office and anything else that catches your eye. Until next time, see you guys later!
Review Time 