Welcome back everybody to a brand new edition of box office predictions! This is going to be a quick one this week as we only have one major movie hitting theaters this weekend just in time for Valentine’s Day, the third installment in the Magic Mike trilogy, Magic Mike’s Last Dance. Without further ado, lets get predicting!
Magic Mike’s Last Dance
Channing Tatum returns in one of his more recognizable leading roles in the final chapter in the unlikely trilogy of Magic Mike films. It was originally intended to be an HBO Max exclusive, but then got promoted to theatrical last year as Warner Bros. CEO, David Zaslov wants to prioritize that revenue stream. Will this last performance go out with a bang, or will it end up literally breaking a leg at the box office? Lets dig right in!
Pros:
First off, both previous films in this trilogy were able to become solid little hits. The first Magic Mike in particular was a huge over performer back when it came out in 2012 thanks to strong reviews, a great marketing campaign, an appeal to female audiences, and Channing Tatum’s rising star. The male stripper drama was able to open with $39 million, and then leg out to $113 million domestic and $167 million worldwide on a mere $7 million budget. A fantastic result, especially given the type of movie this was. Its sequel, Magic Mike XXL, came out in 2015 and saw expected diminishing returns opening with $12 million over the fri-sun portion of a $27 million wed-sun opening and finishing at $66 million domestic and $117 million worldwide. Still pretty darn good on a $14 million budget and it shows that there is clearly an audience for this series.
Also, Channing Tatum has been on something of a winning streak as of late as he had headlined some noteworthy success stories in the past year. Early last year he co directed and starred in the military dramedy, Dog, which over performed to the tune of a $14 million debut, a $61 million domestic total, and an $84 million worldwide gross on a $15 million budget. A pretty great result for an original small scale dramedy whose main selling point was “watch Channing Tatum get into shenanigans with a dog”. Then the next month saw the release of The Lost City which he headlined alongside Sandra Bullock and that romantic comedy adventure flick was able to open with $30 million and leg out to $105 million domestic and $190 million global on a $68 million budget. Given how theatrical comedies and non franchise films have struggled as of late, this was a very strong performance and shows how much value Tatum has as a lead especially in films that are more targeted towards female audiences.
Adding to that, this film looks to aim for that same demographic as those films which could very well help it in the long run. It also could help it in avoiding a steeper than normal drop between Saturday and Sunday when the Super Bowl occurs on the latter day, as it is targeting a different kind of audience than the big football game. It coming out just in time for Valentine’s Day certainly doesn’t hurt its chances.
So Magic Mike’s Last Dance is definitely a film that has the potential to over perform thanks to everything I just mentioned… however there are some things holding me back from predicting that to happen.
Cons:
For one it has been a little over 7 years since Magic Mike XXL came out and so naturally there is the question of whether or not there is still much interest in this franchise, especially with second one seeing a notable decline from the original. Plus, while well liked and having fans, it doesn’t seem like its a series that audiences are frothing at the mouth to see continue.
Not only that but reviews for this one have been fairly lukewarm, especially when compared to the prior two which could make some think twice before going to the theaters to see this one. However that may not mean much if audiences end up liking it a lot (to be fair, most of the reviews have stated that the film does deliver all the dance performances and male naval gazing that one would want from these movies).
Also and this is what most concerns me. I’m a little worried in how Warner Bros. has chose to approach this release as they technically aren’t releasing it as a full on wide release. Similar to House Party, it is going to be releasing in less than 2,000 theaters which is kind of crazy given that this is a pretty high profile release in a prolific franchise. That low location count has me worried that this won’t do break out quite as big as initially hoped for. Plus, the marketing has been fairly muted as well. While the trailers have been good and play well to and audience, other than theaters and TV spots there hasn’t been a whole lot done to promote this one. While I’m happy Warner Bros. went theatrical with this, I still wish they would put in a bit more effort beyond the bare minimum.
Final thoughts:
In all, I’m not expecting Magic Mike’s Last Dance to get anywhere near what the other two made as the the theatrical landscape is in a much different place compared to where it was even7 years ago and I fear Warner Bros. lack of theatrical commitment will hurt it from doing better than it could’ve done. It’ll probably open in the low teens and might get near $30 million domestic depending on word of mouth. I have no clue if there is even overseas interest in this series anymore (keep in mind both films skewed more domestic), so I’m expecting a soft international performance.
So here are my final predicitons:
Opening weekend: $10 million
Domestic total: $28 million
Worldwide total: $50 million
Not a great performance, I know, but this is one where I hope I’m wrong as it would be nice to see an unexpected franchise like this go out on a high note. Plus if this ends up doing better than what I’m predicting, then I also would not be surprised and would be quite happy.
Holdover Business:
Now we are at the point where we re cap any notable holdover business that took place over the past weekend, starting with the two wide releases that opened last weekend.
First we had Knock at the Cabin which opened to number 1 with $14 million. This may have been lower than hoped (I predicted $21 million) as it is the lowest wide release opening for M. Night Shyamalan, taking the title from Old which opened to $16 million in summer 2021 (which I’d argue was a more than good enough debut given the circumstances and the budget). I think it does show that maybe his name could only do so much to sell certain movies given that while reviews were decent, this was a dark R-rated thriller that didn’t have any butts in seats draws and was divisive among audiences. Still though with a $20 million budget, this is the type of movie that can afford to underperform expectations and still make money because the price wasn’t so high, even though I’m not expecting great legs. Still it is nice to see Shyamalan still getting the opportunity to make these types of films by self financing them so Universal is really on the hook for distributing these films making their deal with him a fairly lucrative one.
Next we had 80 for Brady debut and it actually came really close to topping Knock at the Cabin as it opened with $12 million (very close to the $13 million I predicted it would do). One thing to mention with this one is that all movie tickets for this film were priced at matinee cost (which is lower than the usual movie ticket price) and it will remain that way throughout the film’s theatrical run. This is a smart way to attract the film’s main demographic of elderly females and this debut is really good for a theatrical comedy in this day and age. Word of mouth among audiences is really strong and I have feeling that legs are going to be strong for this one even after the Super Bowl comes and goes. It seems certain to out gross Knock at the Cabin in the States (it has been topping it in terms of weekday numbers) which is something I admittedly wasn’t expecting.
After 7 weeks at the top of the weekend charts, Avatar: The Way of Water has now been dethroned from the number 1 spot, but still held on like a champ, only dropping 29% from last weekend. Its domestic total stands near $640 million as it looks to out-gross Jurassic World in the coming days to become the ninth biggest domestic release of all time. Globally it is at $2.178 billion and looks to pass Titanic fairly soon to become the third biggest domestic release… however Titanic is being re released this weekend and could very well take that spot back depending on how it does. No matter what happens I’m sure James Cameron will be more than fine with some extra cash.
Also legging it out like there is no tomorrow is Puss in Boots: The Last Wish which has now topped the domestic total of the original film from 2011 as it now stands at $152 million domestic, which is 12.6x its $12 million fri-sun debut (that is an insane multiplier, even for the Holidays). It will soon out gross Sing 2 ($162 million) domestically to become the 2nd biggest animated release of the pandemic era, behind only the $369 million earned by Minions: The Rise of Gru. Globally it is at $373 million and is likely to cross $400 million very soon. In terms of Dreamworks Animation releases it will soon pass the likes of Trolls, Over the Hedge, Shark Tale, and How to Train Dragon: The Hidden World domestically, while globally it should leap frog over Shark Tale, Penguins of Madagascar, Monsters vs. Aliens and Home. This has truly become a true word of mouth sensation and will easily go down as one of the biggest box office success stories of last year. It also means that Shrek 5 looks like a real certainty at some point.
In other tid bits, A Man Called Otto continues to hold well as it nears $60 million domestic and looks to eventually surpass $100 million globally. M3GAN also continues to hold very well for a horror movie as it nears $90 million domestic as it looks to pass the $92 million domestic total of Halloween Kills very soon and it has a outside shot at $100 million domestic (globally it is at $160 million). Missing is also doing quite well, now at $23 million and it looks to out gross Searching’s domestic total of $26 million very soon.
Conclusion:
And that just about wraps up this week’s edition of box office predictions! Next week is a big one as we have the debut of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which is set to be the kick off debut of phase 5 for the MCU. I have a lot to say regarding that film’s box office prospects and I look forward in sharing that next week. But in the meantime please sound off down below in the comments what you thoughts of this past weekend’s box office and how you thought things would shape up! Until next time, see you guys later!
Review Time 