Welcome back everybody to a brand new edition of box office predictions! After sitting out last weekend, I’m back for this one to take a look at two brand new wide releases hitting the theatrical marketplace. Those would be the latest M. Night Shyamalan thriller, Knock at the Cabin, and the all star comedy, 80 for Brady. Both very different, yet they both have the potential to bring some more life to the box office. Without further ado, lets get predicting!
Knock at the Cabin
M. Night Shyamalan returns with a brand new big screen venture, courtesy of Universal with this apocalyptic chiller. This marks his second film this decade after 2021’s Old and it is actually based off of Paul G. Tremblay’s novel, The Cabin at the End of the World (although to most general audiences it will likely be viewed more as an original film). Will audiences make the choice to give this one a try or are they getting wary of Shyamalan’s tricks? Lets dig right in!
Pros:
Despite his output being all over the place in terms of critical and audience reception, M. Night Shyamalan is still a director that has some marquee value as he his films usually tend to do quite well most of the time dating all the way back to The Sixth Sense back in 1999. Yes, he has had plenty of critical and financial duds since then like Lady in the Water, The Last Airbender, and After Earth. However when the budget is low (he has recently been self financing most of his work which helps) and there is a solid hook, his films can make solid bank. Prior to Covid we had the likes of The Visit ($98 million globally on a $5 million budget), Split ($278 million on a $9 million budget), and Glass ($247 million on a $20 million budget) being extremely profitable ventures. Heck, even The Happening, one of his most derided features, still made $163 million worldwide on a $48 million budget. Knock at the Cabin is said to cost around $20 million so this is one release that doesn’t need to break record to break even.
Not only that but his most recent film prior to Knock at the Cabin, Old, I’d argue did really well for an original to most general audiences (it was based off of the graphic novel, Sandcastle) horror movie released right when theaters were in recovery mode and Covid cases were beginning to increase again due to the Omicron variant. It did $48 million domestic from a $16 million opening and $90 million global on an $18 million budget despite a polarizing reception. That is not too far off from what The Visit made and it shows that his high concept thrillers still have a certain draw among moviegoers.
Knock at the Cabin is no different as it has a simple yet intriguing premise (“a family vacation in a cabin in the woods, gets interrupted by home invaders who are trying to prevent the end of the world”) that looks to be right up Shyamalan’s wheel house. The marketing has done a great job in selling the movie as an intense thriller with potential twists and turns and it has ramped considerably up in recent weeks. Reviews have also been decent for the most part with the overall consensus being that it is one of the director’s better films in recent memory, even though there are plenty who still had issues with the movie.
Another thing I noticed is that this is the first time Dave Bautista (aside from My Spy which got sold to Amazon) has gotten the chance to be billed as one of the main roles of a major theatrical movie as most of the time he is usually a supporting player. That could help in increasing this movie’s profile and it could prove to be a test case on whether he can be a butts in seats movie star.
Finally, horror has been one genre that has been killing it as of late with the likes of The Black Phone, Barbarian, Smile, The Menu and just recently with M3GAN over performing expectations doing great business relative to their budgets. It is one of the few genres where original films can thrive financially as all one really needs is a great concept and some effective marketing. Knock at the Cabin looks to have just that and I feel it has the potential to do quite well.
So I’m feeling confident in Knock at the cabin’s ability to perform, however I don’t quite see this being another M3GAN in terms of break out potential for a couple of reasons.
Cons:
While the trailers have done a good job teasing what the movie has in store, it is a much more grimdark and violent affair than campy fun like M3GAN. This looks to be a more somber film with an R-rating to boot, so the appeal isn’t quite as wide as it was for that film. Heck even Old’s concept was easier to sell as a creepy idea that seemed like it came straight out of an episode of the Twilight Zone.
Plus, Dave Bautista, as immensely talented as he is, has been untested in terms of headlining a major/non supporting role like this so it is unknown if he has much beats in seats draw that could help this film out. He is the biggest onscreen name in the marquee (although Rupert Grint and Jonathan Groff certainly have their fans and are high profile in their own rights) so it is clear the studio is hoping his online popularity can translate to solid financial success.
Finally, while the reviews have been decent on the whole, it still seems like there is a bit of divisiveness thrown in there. Audience reception is going to be important for this film if it wants to leg out beyond opening weekend. I’m not too sure about that given the grimdark nature of the film, but many of Shyamalan’s recent films have managed to stick around after opening, despite mixed reviews and reception so who knows.
Final thoughts:
In all, I think Knock at the Cabin is going to open well as I feel there is enough buzz surrounding it to the point where it can put up solid numbers. Legs are an open question, but I can see it legging it about as much as The Visit (a 2.6x multiplier) since there really isn’t a whole lot of horror competition till Scream VI in March (I’d argue Cocaine Bear is being sold more as a comedy than outright horror, but even then it is a very different kind of film from Knock at the Cabin). I think a global performance on par with Old and The Visit seems likely given that it is a similar low budget thriller.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $21 million
Domestic total: $54 million
Worldwide total: $96 million
It could definitely go lower or higher depending on word of mouth, but no matter what happens it is still likely to end up being a very profitable endeavor thanks to the low budget. People may mock him all they want, but M. Night Shyamalan remains one of the few directors out there who is still able to get people into the theaters with his name alone to a certain extent and there is something to admire about that.
80 for Brady
The other big release is one that couldn’t be more different from Knock at the Cabin. 80 for Brady stars Lilly Tomlin, Sally Fields, Rita Moreno, and Jane Fonda as a group of elderly best friends who go to see Tom Brady play at the Super Bowl. Will it be able to score a touchdown at the box office or will this one retire early? Lets dig right in!
Pros:
The timing of this movie couldn’t be more appropriate as it is being released the weekend before the Super Bowl to cash in on this time of year. That could definitely help raise awareness for the feature as well as the fact that Tom Brady has announced this week that he will be retiring from football (at least that’s what he says), which could prove to be a nice last minute marketing boon for this feature.
Given the kind of all star cast at play, it is clear that this is trying to target the older female audience, a demographic that has proven in the past that they can show up in droves to movies they are interested in. This year alone we’ve seen the likes of Dog, The Lost City, Downton Abbey: A New Era, Where the Crawdads Sing, and Ticket to Paradise pull in respectable to great grosses with the help of that demographic, meaning they’ll show up if the movie looks appealing. Given the light hearted nature of the film, this could end up being one of those.
Marketing has revved up in recent weeks with social metrics looking promising and a lot of advertisement being done as well, with even some early advanced screenings taking place beforehand. This is a sign that Paramount has a lot of confidence in the movie and that it could be a potential word of mouth sleeper. Heck even the reviews, while not glowing, have turned out better than expected and they seem to agree that the movie delivers what one would expect from it.
So I actually do think this one might end up over performing a bit, especially if word of mouth among audiences is strong. But of course as with all movies there are some things to keep in mind.
Cons:
The fact that this movie is timed to release right before the Super Bowl does make it a bit of an open question as to how it could leg out after the big game transpires. I think that if the movie is received well enough by its target audience that it could leg out beyond then, but it is something to think about in terms of its staying power.
The fact that this is coming out long after Tom Brady left the New England Patriots and that this film takes place when he was still on that team, could make this film feel a tad too late in the eyes of a number of people. I also just don’t think the movie has much overseas appeal given that football is more of an American sport more than anything else and I don’t think Tom Brady is a big marquee name overseas.
Finally, and this is a point I have mentioned many times before when discussing the financial prospects of comedy films and that is that they have had a rough time as of late with most of them either being sold to streaming or under performing theatrically.
Final thoughts:
In all I think 80 for Brady is going to avoid the fate of so many under performing comedies, at least domestically, as I can see it appealing greatly to the older female demographic to the point where it could leg out a bit even after the Super Bowl comes and goes. I don’t expect it to make much of a dent overseas so it may not be a huge hit theatrically overall thanks to the $28 million budget, but it should do well enough to the point that it can make money in the post theatrical afterlife.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $13 million
Domestic total: $40 million
Worldwide total: $58 million
While not break out numbers, I do think this will end up succeeding where are recent comedies have fallen short and it may do well enough to justify potential future film endeavors for Tom Brady.
Holdover Business:
Let’s now see how some of the notable the holdovers have been doing.
First off Avatar: The Way of Water has hit some huge benchmarks. It is now in the top 10 biggest domestic grossers at $624 million as it continues to show phenomenal staying power (it has become the first film to top the weekend box office for 7 straight weekends in a row since the original Avatar). More impressively it has became the sixth film to ever breach the $2 billion mark and has passed both Avengers: Infinity War and Star Wars: The Force Awakens to become the fourth biggest film of all time behind Titanic, Avengers: Endgame, and Avatar. Yes, James Cameron now directed three of the top 5 biggest movies ever. Even as someone who expected it to do well, I could not have imagined it doing this well.
The same goes for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish which continues to have minuscule drops never having one weekend gross below $10 million thus far in its run. It has made $142 million from a $12 million fri-sun debut, which makes for an incredible 12x multiplier. It has become the leggiest wide release of 2022 and globally it is nearing $350 million. With no family films until April, I’m very curious to see how much farther this film will go, but wow this has become one of the incredible box office success stories I have seen in recent memory.
Two other solid success stories are M3GAN which continues to hold well for a horror movie as it now stands at $83 million domestically and $146 million globally. Can it get to the century mark in the States? Perhaps. It all depends on much more it can leg out, but either way it is still a huge success. Also A Man Called Otto is doing very well for an older skewing dramedy as it is nearing $50 million mark domestically. It may not be a huge hit thanks to the $50 million budget (it has made a little over $70 million worldwide) but these are good numbers for this type of film and I’m sure it will do well when it hits Netflix in a couple of months. Also, Plane has had some solid holds as the male driven action pic of choice as it looks to cross $30 million very soon.
Missing, which was last wide release opener I did a prediction for prior to this one, actually ended up doing better than I expected. The quasi follow up to Searching opened with $9 million which more than the $6 million that Searching opened to in it first weekend in wide release. It has now made $18 million domestic and will likely end up around the $26 million that Searching did domestically. Given the $7 million budget, this is a very solid result for this film and it is like Escape Room, another unexpected franchise for Sony.
Finally I want to mention a very high profile film from Bollywood called Pathaan, which managed to make some huge waves this past weekend. It scored the biggest opening for a Bollywood film domestically making over $6 million over the fri-sun portion of a $9 million wed-sun opening. It is allegedly doing massive numbers in India (can’t find a specific number in U.S. dollars but many have states that globally the film has made over $60 million) as it marks a long awaited return to the big screen for the actor, Shah Rukh Khan. It is also yet another example of Indian cinema gaining more popularity in the States with the likes of this and RRR doing solid business.
Conclusion:
And that just about wraps up this week’s edition of box office predictions! Next week we’ve only got one wide release coming out which is the trilogy capper, Magic Mike’s Last Dance, which hopes to continue Channing Tatum’s box office winning streak. I look forward in covering that one as well any notable holdover business. In the meantime, please feel free to sound off below in the comments and share how you think these films are going to fare. Until next time, see you guys later!
Review Time 