Welcome back everybody to the latest edition of box office predictions! We’ve got a busy weekend this time as the holiday season continues to heat up after this past weekend’s release of Avatar: The Way of Water. This time around we have three very different movies entering wide release with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Babylon, and Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody. We’ve got a lot to talk about so let’s not waste anymore time. Let’s get predicting!
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Let’s start off with what is likely to be the biggest of the three, the long in development, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish! Will it end up clawing it’s way to a grand total or will it’s grosses be unworthy of the litter box? Let’s dig right in!
Pros:
The Shrek franchise is one of the biggest animated franchises of all time with the series grossing $3.5 billion in global grosses through all of the films. Each one has been a huge hit and the property seems to have increased in popular in recent years thanks to the Internet’s weird obsession with it. That can help attract audiences to this new installment in this universe.
The original Puss in Boots was a big hit in its own right all the way back in November of 2011. It opened soft with $34 million (the lowest debut in the franchise and well below the sequels) but then went on to display remarkable staying power grossing $149 million domestic and $554 million globally on a $130 million budget. It was also very well liked by many, and it showed the value of this character as a marquee character meaning going forward on a sequel made sense.
The long wait time between installments could actually help this movie in the sense that it has been a long time since we had anything Shrek related hit theaters. Thus those who grew up watching it/are fans of the series may see this as an opportunity to re visit this world especially if they have kids who love the movies.
Helping matters is that reviews have been fantastic (privacy the best the series has had since Shrek 2), with many critics praising it as a fun and thoughtful family adventure with spectacular visuals to boot. This could help in convincing those who may be skeptical thanks to the long wait time and should audience word of mouth be just as strong this could be leggy as all heck throughout the holiday. Marketing has also been very much aggressive as of late with Universal selling the film in a way Disney just didn’t with Strange World.
Helping its staying power is after the disastrous performance of Strange World, it looks to be an appealing family option over the holiday frame. Plus in terms of films that are explicitly aimed at families, it has the field to itself until The Super Mario Bros. Movie in April.
Finally it seems like Universal is setting this film up to be a success similar to Sing 2 last year. They marketed that film aggressively treating it as the big family event of the season and they reaped some great rewards. The film opened amid decent reviews and fantastic audience reception to $22 million over the fri-sun portion of a $39 million wed-sun debut frame. Thanks to no demographic competition for three whole months it was able to leg out to $162 million domestic and $407 million worldwide, becoming the biggest animated film of the pandemic era at the time. All of this despite hitting PVOD after 17 days of release.
So on the whole, I have a really good feeling about Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. Still like all releases there are a couple of things to consider.
Cons:
Since it has been so long since we’ve had a Shrek related feature film it is hard to know how strong the brand is in attracting general audiences especially since even though all of the films were hits, Shrek: Forever After did show signs of diminishing returns at the domestic box office. The fact that this is not a direct Shrek sequel, instead a sequel to the spin off that released more than a decade ago, definitely makes this is a risk in terms of reviving the franchise.
One concerning trend among animated films in recent years has been the amount of sequels that have underperformed in relation to their predecessors. Even before covid, we saw the likes of The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part, The Secret Life of Pets 2, and The Angry Birds Movie 2 among others drop drastically from what their predecessors made. Heck even the covid compromised likes of Trolls: World Tour, The Croods: A New Age, Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway, and The Boss Baby: Family Business would have likely fared similarly albeit with presumably higher grosses than they ended up doing. Now this isn’t a quality judgement (I myself enjoy to love most of these films) but it is something that has been happening more and more.This can be chalked down to a number of factors, but it seems like in order to get people into these films, there must be some appeal beyond kids (like Toy Story 4 or Frozen II) or marquee characters must be involved (Minions: The Rise of Gru). I personally think Puss in Boots can avoid this fate but it is something to take note of.
Also, one thing that could hinder it’s opening (and this applies to the other two releases as well as the second weekend of Avatar: The Way of Water) is that Christmas Eve (which is normally not a very huge moviegoing day) falls on a Saturday this year, which is usually a great day of the week for moviegoing. All of these films could potentially see a sharper than usual drop from Friday to Saturday thanks to this scheduling that could lower the opening weekend figures a bit.
Final thoughts:
Despite the long wait, I believe Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is going to benefit greatly from a stellar critical reception and presumably strong notices from general audiences as well as a potentially fruitful holiday corridor. Universal is smartly playing the long game with this one just like they did with Sing 2. I expect a performance similar to that one as I feel it’ll open a tad lower in it’s fri-sun frame, but have phenomenal staying power in the weeks ahead to the point where I think it has a shot of out grossing its predecessor despite having a lower opening. A global performance on par with Sing 2 also seems likely, especially as this one could get a couple extra millions in China, a market Sing 2 did not have.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening 3-day weekend: $20 million
Opening 5-day weekend: $33 million
Domestic total: $158 million
Worldwide total: $405 million
Not gonna lie out of all of the movies this year, with the exception of Avatar, this has been the one I have been the most curious to see perform given the long wait between installments and it serves as a test case to see how strong the Shrek brand still is. Here’s hoping it goes above and beyond as I myself have been looking forward to this one for a long time!
Babylon
Moving on to the next high profile release of the weekend is the latest directorial outing from Damien Chazelle and it is one that has gotten the film community buzzing about in many ways. Will that buzz translate to financial success or will this end up being a film that buzzed about more than actually seen by paying audiences? Let’s dive right in!
Pros:
This project has been seen by many as a potential awards player given Damien Chazelle’s name recognition, the stacked cast, and the subject matter which is related to 1920s Hollywood and the transition from silent movies to “talkies”. That alone could attract people to an extent especially if they want to catch up on all of the big awards contenders.
Chazelle was man behind La La Land which was a huge hit back in late 2016/early 2017 as it did the strategy of opening in a limited number of theaters and then expanding into more theaters further into its theatrical run. It ended up being among the more popular awards contenders that year, grossing $151 million domestic and $447 million globally, a fantastic result on a $30 million budget.
Finally, the film is very clearly targeting adult movie goers, and just like pre covid movies that were targeting a similar audience (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Ford v Ferrari, etc.) the marketing has done a smart job in emphasizing both the stacked cast (Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Toby Maguire, etc.) as well as the “fun” factor, which in this case is the insane debauchery that was present in Hollywood at that time period. Both of those elements can go a long way in selling a project like this.
However this also a film that has a number of things going against it that could prevent it from being a break out hit on the level of the films I have mentioned.
Cons:
While it still has a shot at nabbing many major nominations, the reception thus far has been quite divisive among those who have seen it with many calling it one of the year’s best and others declaring it to be a massive, exhausting mess of a movie. This could definitely put people on the fence about seeing it in theaters instead of waiting for it to hit streaming or home media.
Adult skewing films have had a tough time breaking out recently with many of the big awards contenders (The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar, etc.) failing to break out beyond the die hard movie going circle. Heck just a couple of months ago we had Amsterdam, which was also a big budget adult skewing flick by a known director and a stacked cast, crash and burn at the box office grossing only $14 million domestic and $31 million worldwide on a whopping $80 million budget.
Speaking of which, Babylon also cost in that same price range as Amsterdam (around $78 million) which is pretty hefty for a film like this that isn’t a safe financial bet at all. Plus I’m hesitant to call Damien Chazelle (immense talent as a filmmaker notwithstanding) a marque director as his last film, First Man, severely underperformed back in 2018 only grossing $44 million domestic and $105 million globally on a $59 million budget. Granted it was a different type of film compared to La La Land, but it did show that maybe his name alone isn’t quite enough to sell a potentially risky endeavor.
The movie has a run time of 3 hours and 8 minutes. Now as we talked about with Avatar: The Way of Water, that’s not a huge problem for surefire franchise installments. However for an adult skewing film like this… I can see people being hesitant about making this time commitment especially with a reception that is so polarizing.
Finally I am just not sure how much appeal this movie has for general audiences. Yes the film marketing has been emphasizing the “fun” elements of the story, but there is the possibility that many older audiences will be turned off by the debauchery on display. Now I know there are many that have compared this to Wolf of Wall Street ($116 million domestic, and $406 million worldwide on a $100 million budget) but that was a much better received film that was directed by Martin Scorsese, had Leonardo DiCaprio in the lead (who is one of the few actors nowadays that can sell a movie with his name alone), and had a much stronger hook than “watch all of this insane stuff go down in 1920s Hollywood”. Plus films about the film industry have never been the most appealing to general audiences unless there is an all star cast involved. And yes while the cast here is stacked, only Brad Pitt and maybe Margot Robbie to an extent are the ones who one could call a butts in seats performer in the right project. I just don’t know if this is that right project.
Final thoughts:
In all I am not too confident in Babylon’s box office prospects as it just doesn’t seem like the type of film that is going to break out in this environment. Maybe I’m wrong and it could play like a milder Wolf of Wall Street, but I’m thinking a total on par with First Man domestically seems likely, while globally is a bit trickier to predict since I don’t know how much appeal this is going to have overseas.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $10 million
Domestic total: $40 million
Worldwide total: $100 million
As you can see I’m personally thinking a First Man like performance is likely, but I would love to be wrong and see this play like Wolf of Wall Street or American Hustle. Problem is we are far from the days where those kinds of movies could get people into the theater and I just don’t see this being like that (my own anticipation for the film notwithstanding).
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Last up we have the latest biopic centered on the life of a famous musician, with the subject this time being Whitney Houston. Will it end up singing its way to box office stardom or will it fall flat instead? Let’s dig right in!
Pros:
The music biopic has seen a resurgence of late with many films such as Bohemian Rhapsody, Rocketman, and Elvis reaching varying degrees of box office success in recent memory. One can argue that they are among the safest box office bets right now with many audiences gravitated to learning more about these icons and jam out to their greatest hits on the big screen.
Whitney Houston is of course an icon in the music world and a movie centered on her life is bound to interest a lot of people, especially fans of the late great singer.
Given its release around the holiday corridor this seems like the type of crowd pleaser that has the potential to attract older moviegoers. While I’m not expecting massive numbers on opening weekend, I can definitely see it having decent staying power in the weeks to come.
That being said my confidence in this film has gone down in recent weeks for a couple of reasons.
Cons:
Buzz has been surprisingly muted for this one which is odd given the subject matter and the type of movie this is. Not helping matters is that reviews have mostly been mixed-negative with many calling it a derivative music biopic that fails to do anything new with the formula. Granted there is the possibility that audiences will like it more than audiences as that is what happened with Bohemian Rhapsody, but that one had much more buzz around it, a stronger marketing campaign and a slightly better reception.
Not every music biopic is a guaranteed slam dunk as we have saw with Respect which opened amid the Delta variant surge last year. That Jennifer Hudson led Aretha Franklin biopic has similarly muted buzz and opened with $8 million and grossed $24 million domestic and $32 million global on a reported $55 million budget. A huge disappointment in relation to cost and it showed that not every one of these is bound to be a hit.
While I’m sure Naomi Ackie is a fine actress and I’ve heard she does a decent job in the role, she isn’t exactly a known name that could help spur interest in the project. I mean heck Jennifer Hudson is more recognizable and was still unable to help make Respect into a hit.
Final thoughts:
Initially I would have seen this as a safe financial bet given the subject matter and the resurgence in musical biopic. However buzz has failed to pick up in recent weeks and I just don’t see this breaking out in a way like Elvis or even Rocketman did. I think it’ll perform better than Respect due to better movie going conditions and the holiday corridor, but I still don’t see it performing phenomenally.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $12 million
Domestic total: $45 million
Worldwide total: $87 million
Could I be low balling this dramatically and underestimating general audience interest? Perhaps, but I have a feeling this is one that’ll attract a larger audience when it hits home media in a couple of months.
Holdover Business:
Let’s now see what the holdovers have been up to, although this time I will be mainly focusing on the big movie from last weekend, Avatar: The Way of Water. How did it do?
Well it opened to around $134 million domestic (it should be nearing $200 million as of the time of this writing) and $441 million globally (it should be past $660 million as of this writing). That is fifth best domestic opening and the 2nd best global opening of the year. It also did underperform in China with $57 million in it’s opening (projections had it making much more) but that’s largely due to the country’s battle with covid at the moment.
While this domestic opening was below where I predicted ($178 million), there are a number of factors to keep in mind. For one, the film is over 3 hours long and is the type of film that requires a premium format in order to be get a full experience. Many audiences are likely waiting for when it is more convenient for them to watch this film in order to get that experience. Also James Cameron films are known for being ridiculously leggy to the point where one can’t really write off his films after opening weekend. We saw this with Titanic and the original Avatar. Thus I’m expecting The Way of Water (which has strong notices from critics and audiences and the blockbuster field to itself for a while) to show strong staying power in the weeks to come. Also with the exception of most of the recent Star Wars films and Spider-Man: No Way Home, the highest opening for a December release is The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey with $84 million. So the fact that this still opened that high and increased around 74% from the original’s $77 million opening is impressive and a huge rebuttal to those who think Avatar left no impact on people. Plus it’s likely to be the biggest global grosser of the year. Some disappointment I know.
In terms of other tid bits, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever stands at $421 million domestic and is approaching $800 million worldwide. A big hit in its own right and once it passes Captain Marvel in the States it will become the 2nd biggest non Avengers/Spider-Man MCU film behind only the first Black Panther. Meanwhile Violent Night continues to pull in solid grosses as it nears $40 million domestic and $60 million worldwide while The Menu does likewise with $32 million domestic and $65 million globally. Alas Strange World looks to finish around where Treasure Planet ended up domestically ($39 million) and will struggle to breach $70 million worldwide. A tragic loss, but again let’s just hope next year’s Wish fairs much better next Thanksgiving.
Conclusion:
That just about wraps up this week’s edition of box office predictions! We’ve got a lot coming out and I sure am looking forward in seeing how these three films as well as Avatar: The Way of Water perform during the holiday season. Since there are no new wide release next weekend I’ll be sitting that out, but I’ll be back for the first weekend of 2023 which sees the release of the buzzy horror film, M3GAN. That’s going to be a fun one to look at, but in the meantime please let me know how well you think these movies will perform! In the meantime see you guys next time and have a wonderful holiday!
Review Time 