Welcome back everyone to box office predictions! I may have sat out last week due to an utter lack of new movies hitting wide release, but I am back for this week and boy is it a big one. If last weekend was the calm before the storm, then this right here is the storm itself as finally after so many years of development, Avatar: The Way of Water will be hitting multiplexes. There has been much speculation regarding this film’s financial prospects and similar to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, this is movie that is likely to be big… the question is how big? Well let’s see if we can quantify that. So without further ado, let’s get predicting!
Avatar: The Way of Water
More than a decade after Avatar shattered box office records, James Cameron is back with the second installment of a planned 5 movie series that the man has been developing for quite some time. This has been a project that many (myself included) in the box office community have been more than curious to see how it performs as this is the sequel to the biggest movie of all time in unadjusted global grosses. Will The Way of Water soar to incredible heights or will it sink harder than hoped? This is going to be a tricky one to predict, but let’s do it!
Pros:
The original Avatar was quite the success story when it opened back in December 2009. No one really knew what to expect from as it seemed like a pretty big gamble (a $237 million original sci fi epic is not what I’d call a safe bet) with some even writing it off as a potential whiff… and then the movie came out. Thanks to strong reviews and white hot buzz, it opened with $77 million which remains among the biggest debuts for a live action original (might even be the biggest if you don’t count adaptations as Will Smith’s I Am Legend is loosely based off a novel). If it had performed like a normal big Christmas release, then that would have been great… but it didn’t. It maintained superb daily holds throughout the holiday and dropped only 1.8% in it’s second weekend (mostly unheard of even for December releases). But that’s just the beginning, it just kept going and going for many months maintaining the number 1 spot at the weekend box office for 7 weekends, not having a weekend hold above 31.2% until it’s 12th weekend. It ended up grossing $749 million by the end of its initial theatrical run (a stunning 9.7x multiplier) and then went on to add more to its total the next year with a special re release that bumped the total up to $760 million. It astounded overseas to make over $2.7 billion worldwide making it the highest grossing movie of all time at the time. It kept that title domestically until Star Wars: The Force Awakens (it is now the 4th biggest) and was briefly topped by Avengers: Endgame globally, until a 2021 re issue in China helped it reclaim the crown. So yeah to say this exceeded any and all expectations is an understatement.
Adding to that, despite what people on the internet would lead you to believe (the film had no pop cultural impact, people only liked it for the visuals, etc.), a lot of people really love Avatar. While it may not be the most quoted film or have had quite the pop cultural impact as other franchises, it still is a film that was well received by critics, was nominated for a lot of awards, did extremely well when it hit home media, and even has it’s own popular theme park attraction within Animal Kingdom at the Walt Disney World Resort. Not only that, but (and this is anecdotal) every time I hear casual moviegoers talk about Avatar, it is almost always in a positive light. To many people it was a visually stunning film that introduced them to a vast new world and had a familiar yet effective story that dealt with socially relevant themes. Again, you don’t get to these numbers without at least a bit of positive word of mouth from general audiences.
Now some may say that the long wait time between installments could negatively affect this sequel’s performance and while I can see why many think that (more on that later), I actually feel that this may help the film a bit. Enough time has passed that people may have grown a certain sense of nostalgia for the original and they may be eager to return to Pandora after so long. An absence making the heart grow fonder sort of situation if you will.
On a similar note the trailers and promotional materials have done a great job in reminding audiences why they loved this world so much, showcasing the stunning visuals and large scale. The marketing has also made sure to emphasize some of the newer elements at play with a focus on the change in locale with the exploration of the oceanic side of Pandora and the familial conflicts that seem to be at play with our returning characters. The return of most of the original cast (Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldana, Stephen Lang, etc.) as well as newer additions (Kate Winslet, Cliff Curtis, Michelle Yeoh, etc.) should entice fans of the original as well.
Not only that, but reviews have been strong thus far with many critics citing it as a tremendous technical achievement that must been seen on the big screen in order to get the full experience while also calling it a very powerful movie that connects on an emotional level. Even the negative reviews admit that the visuals are impressive and that the film at the very least delivers what audiences would want from an Avatar sequel. This is a good sign that audiences will show up due to the positive buzz be satisfied by the finished product to spread the good word.
The movie is once again opening in the same mid December slot as it’s predecessor did and it has proven to be one of the most lucrative spots on the calendar in recent years. It has been occupied by the likes of most of the recent Star Wars movies, Aquaman, and Spider-Man: No Way Home just to name a few, all of which were massive hits and benefitted from opening close to the holiday corridor. Also similar to it’s predecessor, there is very little direct competition in it’s path with many of the other big holiday openers (Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Babylon, I Wanna Dance With Somebody, etc.) targeting different demographics and with January and early February being comprised of smaller mid budget fare (M3GAN, Plane, Magic Mike’s Last Dance, etc.). In terms of big four quadrant tentpoles, its the last of its ilk until Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania on February 17th.
While I’d argue it never would’ve needed it to be a huge smash, the film will be getting a release in China (something many other Hollywood films this year have not been able to receive) which certainly doesn’t hurt it’s prospects. Despite Covid restrictions that are still in place, there is reason to believe this will perform extremely well there. The original made over $202 million there back in 2010, on only a fraction of the amount of screens that country now has and before it became a huge movie going market. Not only that but that aforementioned re issue grossed $57 million back in 2021, showing that there is interest in the property. Plus pre sales have been great, indicating that the film could potentially surpass F9: The Fast Saga ($216 million last year) to become the biggest Covid era Hollywood grosser in the country.
Finally, it is simply a fool’s errand to bet against James Cameron. This is a man who has directed some of the most acclaimed and financially successful films of all time and is someone who clearly has an intense passion for the craft of filmmaking. He directed not one but two financially successful sequels in the forms of Aliens and Terminator 2: Judgement Day (often considered to be two of the greatest sequels ever made) so he clearly has experience in making beloved follow ups. Not only that but Avatar wasn’t the only time people doubted him as he also directed a little film you may have heard of known as Titanic. It was the most expensive feature ever produced at the time ($200 million) and it was one that faced a troubled production. Many wrote it off as a financial whiff waiting to happen… and then it came out. The critically acclaimed and beloved by audiences period piece opened with a solid $28 million opening, but then rove a way of enormous buzz and sensational word of mouth to top the box office 17 straight weekends in a row, not leaving the top ten until after it’s 30th weekend of release. It had staying power unlike any other, grossing over $600 million domestic while also becoming the first movie ever to breach $1 billion ($1.8 billion). Sound familiar? So yeah bet against this man at your own risk.
As you can see, there is a lot that this film has going for it and I am confident that it is going to be a massive hit. With that said there are still some things to take into consideration when discussing how this film will do.
Cons:
The movie has a final runtime of 3 hours and 12 minutes (yes longer than Avengers: Endgame). Now I still think the movie is going to be huge, as we have seen plenty of long movies do phenomenally at the box office. However this is something to keep in mind when discussing the opening as it is very possibility that some audience members will opt to wait and watch the film when it is convenient for them to do so instead of rushing out on opening weekend like people do for an MCU film. Plus a longer runtime means less showtimes per day. Thus I wouldn’t be surprised if the film ends up being back loaded where it opens very well but maintains impressive staying power throughout the coming weeks. Again this is a brand that is driven more by general audiences than most big franchises (like the MCU) so it is more likely than not going to be playing the long game.
The film is set to be one of the most expensive movies of all time with a budget that is either $250 million or between $350-$400 million depending on who you ask. Now that’s not surprising given how long the film has been in development and the nature of this franchise which requires heavy VFX and CGI work to bring this world to life. Still the road to profitability could end up being a long one in regards to theatrical as it is going to have to be one of the biggest grossers of the year in order to be deemed a success.
Finally, there is the simple fact that there is a lot riding on this film to be a success. Cameron has been at work on not just this movie but also the next three films in this franchise and he has stated that the only way that he gets to make all of them is if this and the third film are successful enough to deem more installments worthwhile financially. So yeah the stakes are fairly high for this one if Disney wants to have another financially successful franchise under its belt.
Final thoughts:
Like I keep mentioning this is one of those releases that is sure to be huge and I’m expecting it to live up to the hype. While I think it’ll have a lower opening than the likes of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever I think it’ll gross enough to become the third biggest opening of the year. I’d say close to where Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opened to back in 2019 ($177 million). However I think it’ll leg out very well due to the many reasons I stated above. I don’t think it will reach the gross of its predecessor or Top Gun: Maverick’s $718 million total but I still see it doing exceptionally well domestically. I expect fantastic overseas business as well, especially if it hits it big in China, and I am confident that it will end up topping the global box office for 2022.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $178 million
Domestic total: $585 million
Worldwide total: $1.7 billion
Could make substantially more than what I am predicting? It is possible and it will definitely be one to watch. At the moment I feel that Avatar: The Way of Water will open higher, but not be as leggy as the original which was a true phenomenon, and end up falling short of the first’s total. Still, I think it is likely to make a lot of big bucks and I look forward in seeing how it does as this has been a long time coming. Here’s hoping this return to Pandora proves that the wait was worth it.
Holdover Business:
Now let’s take a look at any notable hold over business shall we?
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has how topped the box office for the past 5 weekends in row, the first film to accomplish such a feat since… Black Panther in 2018. Although this was largely due to the lack of big competition and underwhelming performances for the Thanksgiving releases. It has maintained a pattern of dropping hard on it’s second weekend, recovering the next and then dropping hard post Thanksgiving and then easing again this past weekend. It is likely to take another hit this weekend due to Avatar, but could still benefit from holiday season. It has now officially passed Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness’s $411 million domestic cume to become the year’s second biggest domestic earner, while globally it has surpassed the $770 million gross of The Batman to become the year’s fifth biggest global release. It may not be performing quite as huge as many would have hoped, it is still performing extremely well and looks to top out somewhere in the $800 million range when all is said and done.
Meanwhile Violent Night has become something of a sleeper hit. It over performed most projections with a $13 million opening (not too far off from the $15 million I predicted) and had a very solid hold this past weekend, dropping 35%. It now stands at $29 million domestic and $46 million globally. Thanks to solid word of mouth, a strong hook, and it’s release right before the holiday season, it looks to be a solid hit for Universal on a $20 million budget.
In less great news, Strange World looks to be a huge financial loss for Disney as it has only mustered up $31 million domestically and $54 million worldwide (keep in mind it is not playing in several overseas markets) which is pretty disastrous for a Walt Disney Animation release. It looks like this one is going to have to crawl to $40 million in the States and is likely to have its legs cut short thanks to its release on Disney+ on December 23rd. It really does suck that the film isn’t doing well, but again I hope that with Bob Iger back in charge that the company will actually treat their animated films well theatrically.
In other tid bits, The Menu has now passed $30 million domestic and $60 million worldwide. This one has shown remarkable staying power these past few weekends, succeeding in a way similar to Barbarian where it is a buzzy horror film with great reviews and strong word of mouth that is helping it find an audience. Gotta give it to Disney for actually trying to sell these 20th Century Studios releases and succeeding. Meanwhile Devotion has struggled to catch on despite good reviews and audiences responses as it has only made $17 million in the States and looks to be one most folks will wait for Netflix to watch.
Also some big news in the specialty box office, as Darren Aronovsky’s The Whale starring Brendan Fraser opened in 6 theaters this past weekend and grossed $360,000 in those cinemas for a $60,000 per theater average. That is the biggest PTA of the year surpassing the $50,000 opening PTA of Everything Everywhere All At Once in April. Despite a divisive response among those who have seen it, Brendan Fraser has garnered some serious awards attention for his performance. Very curious to see how this one fares when it expands wider in the coming weeks.
Conclusion:
So that just about wraps up this weekend’s edition of box office predictions! Next week is packed one as we have three major wide release on deck each one them looking to grab a slice of the holiday box office pie. On December 21st sees the release of the long awaited (well by me at least) Puss in the Boots: The Last Wish, while on the 23rd we have the Whitney Houston biopic, I Wanna Dance With Somebody as well as the latest film from director, Damien Chazelle, Babylon. I myself look forward to talking about how I think they will do as well as how Avatar: The Way of Water fares in its opening. Please let me know How you think the sequel will perform and if your someone who thinks I am seriously over estimating or under estimating this one. Until next time, see you guys later!
Review Time 