Welcome everyone to the latest edition of box office predictions! After last weekend where we had the Thanksgiving holiday in play, things calm down a bit as is usual for the post Thanksgiving weekend. However that doesn’t mean we are empty handed as we do have one film entering into wide release and it’s an appropriate one to kick off the festive month of December. That would be Violent Night, an R-rated action comedy with Santa Claus himself doing the action. How well do I expect it to perform? Let’s find out! Without further ado, lets get predicting!
Violent Night
Coming in just in time for the Holidays, Violent Night comes courtesy of Universal and stars David Harbour as Old Saint Nick himself serving out some seasons beatings. The studio has proven this year that they are willing to invest in many movies of all shapes and sizes and this looks to be no different. Will it end up being a nice holiday treat for them at the box office or will it have them wishing for a lump of coal instead? Lets dig right in!
Pros:
This is a film clearly selling itself based off of it’s high concept (Santa Claus as an action hero trying to save a family from a team of mercenaries holding them hostage) and its a fun one that looks to serve as an unconventional type of Christmas flick in the same way Krampus was back in 2015. That horror flick ended up $42 million from a $16 million debut and $61 million worldwide on a $15 million budget. Violent Night is reported to cost around $20 million so a similar performance would be fine especially when one factors in how well it could do once it hits PVOD.
While an unproven butts in seats draw (largely because he hasn’t had the opportunity to prove his box office worth as a lead) David Harbor in the lead role certainly qualifies as an added value element. He has grown to be quite popular among many people thanks to his roles as Hopper in Stranger Things and Red Guardian in Black Widow among other works, so him playing a John Wick like version of Santa Claus is bound to intrigue a good number of fans of his work.
The marketing has done a strong job of showcasing the type of film this is, emphasizing the insanely violent action as well as the comedy. It’s clearly aiming for the same type of audience that flocks to R-rated action films like this, most notably movies like John Wick and Nobody. As those films (as well as this past summer’s Bullet Train) have shown, there is an audience that will show up to these types of films in large enough numbers to turn them into hits.
Lastly, since the film is opening early in the month of December, it has the potential to leg out as a seasonal option up through the holiday break. Review have been positive thus far with many reviews stating that the film does deliver exactly what it promises, meaning word of mouth among general audiences is likely to be solid as well, given that those who want to see it are likely to get exactly what they payed for.
So Violent Night definitely has the right ingredients to become a solid little success, but even so let’s check some potential things that could hold it back just a little bit.
Cons:
There may be some who find this to be too silly or ridiculous for their liking and admittedly there is the potential that this could end up being a very niche film, with not much appeal beyond action movie junkies and those who like weird ideas like this actually getting the big screen treatment (like me as I think this looks like a ton of fun). But this is a fairly minor thing to worry about all things considered.
There is the factor that Universal has been sending their movies to PVOD after 17 days if the movie opened below $50 million. While that hasn’t seemed to have affected the staying power of most of their releases, there is the possibility that general audiences who are unsure about Violent Night may opt to wait to see it at home.
Final thoughts:
In all, I have a good feeling about Violent Night’s prospects. I think it could potentially over perform on opening weekend and then have solid staying power throughout the month of December and top out over what Krampus made. Worldwide is a bit trickier to predict as I have no idea how much overseas potential this has, but again it doesn’t cost a fortune so numbers on par with Krampus would be fine. This just seems like the type of buzzy high concept film that performs well in theaters, makes a killing on home media and becomes a cult favorite over time.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $15 million
Domestic total: $47 million
Worldwide total: $73 million
Am I over estimating the film’s appeal beyond those in film media sphere? Perhaps, but I have a good feeling about this one and am rooting for it to make a box office killing this holiday season. It looks like a blast and is bound to find itself an audience. Who knows? Maybe it will become a perennial holiday favorite for many.
Holdover Business:
Now let’s see how I fared with my predictions last weekend as well as any notable holdover business.
Not gonna lie things did not turn out quite as hoped for the new releases this past weekend. Let’s start by talking about Walt Disney Animation’s Strange World which ended up doing even worse than I expected. It opened with a measly $12 million over the fri sun portion of an $18 million 5 day debut, which stands as one of the lowest openings ever for a Disney Animation release. That fri-sun number is actually in line with the opening of the studio’s Treasure Planet back in 2002 which itself was a huge financial disaster. It seems Disney really dropped the ball marketing this movie as they clearly did not know how to sell it and it is sadly yet another example of them producing a big budget sci fi adventure movie and watching it flounder at the box office. I don’t see the legs for this one being that strong as not only is an early premiere on Disney+ likely, but also word of mouth is not that great among general audiences (on cinemascore it only scored a B, which is quite low for a family film especially one from Disney Animation) which is a bit surprising. To end things on a hopeful note, I do hope that with Bob Iger back as CEO of Disney that he will treat animation as a bigger priority theatrically and not just rely on Marvel, Star Wars, and Avatar to carry the ship. Also no matter how Strange World does, at the very least it is most definitely going to end up like Treasure Planet and Atlantis: The Lost Empire and gain a following over time which is always a good thing.
Also performing below my expectations was Devotion which only grossed $5.9 million over the 3-day portion and $9 million over the 5-days. Despite good reviews, and strong word of mouth among those who saw it, this is failing to make much of an impact. Another shame here as it’s not every day we get big budget studio programmers like this and it is yet more proof that just because audiences like certain actors (in this case Jonathan Majors and Glenn Powell) in specific roles, that doesn’t mean they’ll show up to everything they’ll star in. I guess it could leg out, but due to the $90 million price tag this is likely to go out as a financial whiff.
Also making an impact was the sequel to Knives Out, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, which despite only opening in only 600 theaters and getting a limited marketing push from Netflix was still able to come in third place and gross an estimated $9 million over the 3 day and $13 million over the 5 day. That is hands down the best debut ever for a Netflix movie that released in theaters in some capacity (well they technically never officially report the grosses anyway) and it really makes one question Netflix’s decision to make this a limited time offer instead of giving it a full on wide theatrical release where it most definitely would have been a massive success as the audience is clearly there. The first movie was such a big success ($165 million domestic and $312 million globally on a $40 million budget) and was beloved by so many that this seemed primed for break out sequel status… until Netflix decided to bid over $400 million to buy the rights to the sequel, stripping the industry of a new theatrical franchise with so much potential in a time where that is becoming rarer and rarer. It’s frustrating, especially when the marketplace is need of more movies like it now more than ever.
Meanwhile Black Panther: Wakanda Forever led for a third straight weekend, dropping only 31.4% from last weekend, grossing $45 million for the three day and $63 million over the 5 day frame. That is a very strong hold and an indication of good word of mouth and some audiences waiting for the break to watch the film instead of rushing out on opening weekend. It stands at $374 million domestic and $682 million worldwide and looks to cross the $400 million mark and the $700 million mark respectively very soon.
The Menu posted a strong hold of 39% this past weekend and has as of this writing past $20 million in the states and $35 million around the globe. It looks to be finding it’s audience and given the type of movie this is, it is performing quite well with only the $30 million budget being a source of concern. Black Adam also held well dropping 29.5% and is now $163 million domestic and nearing $380 million worldwide.
In high profile limited release news, Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans expanded into over 600 theater over the holiday and was able to gross $2 million to bring it’s domestic cume up to $3 million. Many are already quick in calling this a disappointment, but I wouldn’t be too hasty. I think we need to see how much it makes in the coming week and how many more theaters it adds to it’s count as remember Universal played the long game with Green Book back in 2018, releasing it in a limited number of theaters and then going wide later on in it’s theatrical run. Something similar could be in store for Fabelmans. Besides it’s almost certainly going to be a big awards contender no matter how much it makes. We also had Lucas Guadagnino’s Bones and All which also grossed over $2 million to bring it’s total up to $3 million. Honestly, given the subject matter (a cannibal love story) this was never going to break out into the mainstream and big a huge grosser so this is not that surprising.
Conclusion:
And that just about wraps up this week’s edition of box office predictions! I’ll be sitting out next weekend as there are no scheduled wide releases slated, with only Darren Aronovsky’s The Whale entering limited release as well Sony’s PG-13 re release of this year’s Father Stu. Not exactly a weekend screaming in riches, but the week after we have Avatar: The Way of Water finally hitting cinemas on December 16th. Now that is going to be a fun one to discuss and I can’t wait talk about it! Anyway feel free to let me know how you think Violent Night is going to do as well as any other thoughts regarding the Thanksgiving box office. As always, see you guys next time!
Review Time 