Welcome back guys to my latest box office predictions! It’s a busy one this weekend as we are going to be talking about the films releasing during the Thanksgiving holiday, which tends to be a very big time for movie going. In terms of wide releases we have two to talk about in terms of predictions, the latest film from Walt Disney Animation Studios, Strange World, and the Korean war action drama, Devotion. Since both of these are opening on a Wednesday I will give you my predictions for both the 3 day opening weekend as well as their 5-day gross. So without further ado let’s get prediciting!
Strange World
Let’s start by discussing the newest animated movie from Disney and one that I’d argue is actually a very important release for them, even if the company themselves might not necessarily see it that way. In fact I’d go as far as to argue that out of all of their movies this year, I think this is the most crucial one for them. Why? Because it needs to show that they can still sell original animation to strong theatrical success. Will this accomplish that? I’ve got a lot to say regarding this one so let’s discuss.
Pros:
Before Covid, Walt Disney Animation had an incredible winning streak of financial success stories that came in all sorts of shapes and sizes. From the more traditional musicals that they are known for like Frozen, Tangled, and Moana to the more experimental stuff like Wreck-It Ralph, Big Hero 6, and Zootopia, nearly everything they put out pulled in fantastic numbers and were all acclaimed by critics and audiences. Even in this decade, both Raya and the Last Dragon and Encanto received similarly strong notices, meaning quality wise, they are a trusted brand in and of themselves.
Not only that, but they have also shown a particular fondness for opening films during the Thanksgiving holiday as it has proven to be a lucrative launching pad for many of their hit films. During this timeframe, the likes of Tangled, Frozen, Moana, and Ralph Breaks the Internet all opened with between $48 million and $67 million over their three day debuts and anywhere from $68 million to $93 million during the 5 day frame. Each one of those films topped at least $200 million domestic and $500 million globally.
The fact that the film is promoting itself as something different from the aforementioned films could also help in making people interested. Again I’d argue one of the reason these movies have done well is that each promise something different from the one that came before.
Finally, the film could benefit from being the first big family film since Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile in early October as there has been an absolute dearth of those films. Heck it’s the first big theatrical animated feature since DC League of Super-Pets all the way back in July. That’s a long wait for families that want to see something new and Strange World is likely to benefit from that especially with it releasing during the holidays.
However as much as I want this movie to do well and perform like a pre covid Disney animated title, I do have a lot of concerns regarding it. Let’s discuss why.
Cons:
Notice how the previous films I mentioned were all released pre pandemic. The last Walt Disney animation film to release theatrically over the Thanksgiving break was Encanto which played much softer given that we were still deep in recovery mode at the box office. Thus, it opened to $27 million over the fri-sun frame and $40 million over the wed-sun frame. It topped out at $96 million domestically and $256 million worldwide on a budget reported to be between $120 million and $150 million. It played less like a Disney Animation flick over Thanksgiving and more like a Dreamworks Animation film released over this holiday like Rise of the Guardians or Penguins of Madagascar. Now I’d argue that it did well for a family film released during the pandemic as it did out gross pretty much every other one released that same year with the exception of Sing 2 ($162 million domestic and $406 million globally). However, it was still seen as a soft performance as the film only truly became a phenomenon once it hit Disney+.
Now some may argue that Strange World will perform better by virtue of releasing during a better time in a less compromised theatrical environment, however it seems like we still need to look at certain films on something of a Covid curve, and family films are one of them. With the one exception of Minions: The Rise of Gru which was the only family film this year thus far to play like an outright blockbuster, every other one has at best played about on par with Encanto both in the States and worldwide (Lightyear, The Bad Guys, DC League of Super-Pets, etc.). Granted the level of success achieved by these film varies (The Bad Guys actually over performed), it still is worth keeping in mind when talking about the prospect of family films as that is a genre that is still facing some significant recovery.
While the reviews have been fairly positive thus far, they haven’t quite been on the level of many of the other recent films released by the studio. If audiences end up loving the movie more then this won’t be too big of a problem, let’s just hope many are willing to take a chance on it first.
Another thing is that much has been said regarding Disney’s promotion for Strange World or really the lack thereof. Yes, they’ve released a number of trailers and have done the usual in order to promote the film (cast interviews, TV spots, etc.), but compared to the amount of promotion their giving Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Avatar: The Way of Water, it just feels like Disney is quietly releasing this one without much notice, essentially using the theatrical release as a way to promote it’s Disney+ premiere next month (presuming they do what they did with Encanto). Personally I think a new film from WDAS should be treated as equally as big of a deal by the studio as the latest MCU or Star Wars project, but hey that’s just me.
On a similar note, Disney has had a rough history when it comes to animated films (and even live action) that are Sci fi action adventures. How rough? Well, let’s look into some of the more high profile ones:
- All the way back in 2001, Atlantis: The Lost Empire was seen as a potential franchise starter with Disney already having big plans for the feature including sequels, a tv show, and a presence in the theme parks. However it was also released right when the market was beginning to steer away from 2D animation and more towards the more advanced CGI technology. Thus it only opened to $20 million and got to $86 million in the U.S. and only $186 million worldwide on a reported budget of $120 million. After this underperformance, all of those franchise plans became scrapped with only a direct to DVD sequel comprised of the first few episodes of the planned show ever seeing the light of day.
- Faring even worse was Treasure Planet which came out in 2002 and was a long time coming as the idea for the film was pitched by Ron Clements in 1985. Despite it’s ambitious nature and decent reviews, it crashed and burned financially only opening with $12 million and flaming out at $38 million domestic and $110 million worldwide on a $140 million budget. It remains one of the biggest animated bombs ever produced with Disney once again putting the kibosh on any potential follow ups or theme park expansions.
- Heck, even with the presumed protection of an established property and the Pixar name, we saw Lightyear severely underperform this past summer. It opened to $50 million which was well below projections, but was still the biggest debut for animated title during the pandemic and would have been celebrated if the film was sold as an original. However the film had shockingly poor staying power for an animated film only getting to $118 million in the States and overseas didn’t help much as it only go to $226 million worldwide on a reported $200 million budget, making it among the lowest grossing Pixar releases (it’s actually second to Onward which had it’s legs cut off by the pandemic). There is a lot that can be said here, but in short despite Disney’s best efforts to sell the film (they sold it less as a family film and more as a hard sci fi action film) the interest in the project just wasn’t there.
So as you can see this is a genre that Disney has struggled in making hit animated films in (or really any film in as shown by the likes of John Carter and Tomorrowland). It really is a shame as I love the sci fi action genre and am happy that these films got made, but it’s unfortunate general audiences just don’t seem to have that same interest. At the very least both Atlantis and Treasure Planet have garnered many fans in the years since and I see Lightyear and Strange World facing a similar fate.
While it will have the family market itself for a little while, two things to keep in mind when it comes to discussing legs. One is the Disney+ factor which will likely impact post debut staying power since there are a lot of people that will likely opt to wait this one out with the knowledge that it is likely to become available to stream sooner rather than later. Encanto was actually legging it out pretty well (even holding well in the face of Spider-Man: No Way Home) until it premiered on Disney+ where it then just lost a lot of momentum. Plus next month sees the release of Puss in the Boots: The Last Wish which not only looks to be a more appealing feature for families, but also is one that Universal seems to have a lot of confidence in and they are likely to sell the heck out of between now and then. If anything I can see plenty of families just opting to wait until that film comes out and save Strange World for at home viewing.
Last point I want to touch on is that even before Covid, original animation was already starting to become just as risky of a proposition as original live action films. There was once a time when just being a big original animated film was enough to get people into theaters and gross top tier numbers. However that looks to be changing as we haven’t had an original animated film that was an outright blockbuster since Pixar’s Coco back in 2017 (to be fair 2018 and 2019 were very sequel heavy). In 2019 we saw the likes of Abominable, Missing Link, and Spies in Disguise among others either under perform or outright bomb (shame as I really like all three of those films). The 2020s could have been the chance to show the value of these films, Covid came and ruined that chance with many of the promising looking animated films either not getting a theatrical release at all or getting a heavily compromised run.
Final thoughts:
With all of that said, I’m sadly expecting a very soft performance from Strange World. The lack of much promotion from Disney and the many other factors I mentioned just have me feeling pessimistic about it’s prospects even though I wish it were the opposite. I’m expecting a lower opening than Encanto last year as it’s fri-sun will likely be on par with other animated films released recently (over/under $23 million, maybe a tad lower) and the wed-sun gross should be just below Encanto. It will likely have its legs cut short by a presumably early Disney+ release and I think it’ll gross about as much Atlantis domestically and worldwide (I’m really not sure how much overseas appeal this has). Not sure what the exact budget is (have heard numbers ranging from $135 to $180 million) but knowing that it is a Disney animated feature it is likely not cheap.
Opening 3-day weekend: $20 million
Opening 5-day weekend: $30 million
Domestic total: $87 million
Worldwide total: $188 million
Now I hope I’m wrong about this. I want this movie to do well and show that Disney is way more than just Marvel and Star Wars in theaters and that original animation can still thrive. It’s just that the lack of attention Disney is giving the film is pretty darn disheartening and I hope that they understand that while a successful run on streaming is great… a successful run on streaming after a successful run in theaters is even better.
Devotion
Now on to the other big wide release of the holiday, Devotion which is a Korean War action drama distributed by Sony. Wil it take off or struggle to take flight at the box office? Let’s jump right in!
Pros:
The war movie is the type of genre that isn’t too common in theaters nowadays, but when one comes around it can pull in solid numbers. Most recent one that I can think that really hit it big was 1917 back in early 2020 ($159 million domestic and $384 million worldwide). Heck even Roland Emmerich’s Midway actually did better than expected back in late 2019 opening to $17 million and legging out to $56 million domestic and $127 million global… yet that was still not great given the $100 million budget.
Also movies about the military in general have something of a built in audience. Sometimes they can end up soaring through the stratosphere if sold successfully as we’ve seen with stuff like American Sniper and just this year with Top Gun: Maverick.
The film stars two buzzy actors at the moment in Jonathan Majors and Glen Powell. The former is known for portraying the next big bad of the MCU, Kang the Conqueror (as well as other acclaimed works) and the latter was one of the stand out elements of Top Gun: Maverick, the biggest movie of the year thus far. That certainly won’t hurt in making this an appealing option for moviegoers.
Reviews and reception has been solid thus far with many calling it a compelling war film that has two strong lead performances. While it isn’t awards buzzy, the reception could indicate that this could be a solid crowd pleaser which is good for staying power.
Finally, the film looks to serve as counter programming to the big blockbusters and family titles in play, aiming more for the older moviegoing demographic that has usually proven to be an audience that will show up if there is something that looks appealing to them.
So Devotion is a film that can definitely end up over performing if audiences gravitate towards it. However it’s still one that I’m also not entirely 100% sure about.
Cons:
Despite positive notices out of TIFF and the talent on display, the buzz for the film hasn’t really been that high with Sony’s marketing being fairly muted. The lack of much in the way of awards attention certainly doesn’t help.
The Korean War is not one that is portrayed on film all that often in major motion pictures as it’s not one that gets as much attention as say the Vietnam War. This means that there aren’t many direct comparisons I can find as most of the big war films focus on WW1, WW2, and the Vietnam War among others.
As talented as both of these actors are, neither have them are proven butts in seats movie stars. Just because they may be popular in certain roles, doesn’t necessarily mean people are going to see everything else they do. I mean it’s not like many MCU actors (Chris Hemsworth, Chris Evans, etc.) are openers outside of their respective franchises.
One last thing to note is that the movie reportedly cost $90 million! I feel that is simply way too high for a movie like this that isn’t a sure fire blockbuster at all.
Final thoughts:
In all I’m expecting a fairly soft performance from Devotion as I just don’t see it breaking out as much as I would like it to. I think it’ll have an opening under $10 million for the 3-day but I can definitely see it legging out if the word of mouth is there among audiences. This also isn’t the type of movie I see breaking out overseas, but who know?
Opening 3-day weekend: $8 million
Opening 5-day weekend: $13 million
Domestic total: $37 million
Worldwide total: $72 million
Could it possibly get to Midway level grosses? I hope so as I’m always one to root for these types of studio programmers. At the moment though, my expectations are modest for this one. Still glad to see Sony distributing stuff like this as they have proven that they are way more than Spider-Man and Ghostbusters.
Holdover Business
Now let’s take a look at how the holdovers did as well as how I fared in my predictions from last week.
The big story was Black Panther: Wakanda Forever which dropped 63% in it’s second weekend. That was a little steeper than I’m sure many were expecting, but in terms of MCU films released this year, it’s a better hold than both Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder. It passed $300 million this week and looks to have a solid holiday infused hold this weekend. It should also overtake where Multiverse of Madness was at the same point in release. Globally it stands at $561 million. It may not be performing on the level of the first (Black Panther only dropped 44% in its second weekend) but this is still a strong performance nonetheless and it looks to finish as one of the years biggest movies domestically. Your move Avatar: The Way of Water.
In terms of the new releases, The Menu ended up posting a $9 million, nearly dead on with the $10 million I predicted and on par with the $10 million debut of Barbarian back in September. A solid start for this particular movie and I can see the strong buzz helping this one stick around. While I do think the $30 million budget was a bit much for this film, given the type of movie this is (not exactly the most mainstream) I’d say this is a good start.
Then there was She Said which ended up performing about as low as expected unfortunately. It ended up doing worse than the $3 million I predicted, making $2.2 million which I believe is the worst debut for a movie that opened wide this year. This is extremely underwhelming, but not surprising. The subject matter just isn’t the most appealing and it seemed like the type of movie that would be discussed a lot online, but then fail to attract general audiences.
We also had the first two episodes of season 3 of Christmas with the Chosen release in theaters this past weekend racking up an impressive $8 million. While it’s unlikely to have much staying power (last years Christmas with the Chosen: The Messengers made $13 million from a wed-sun debut of $9 million), this is still a great example of a built in audience showing up in enough numbers to put up some decent numbers.
Meanwhile Black Adam continues to hold well, dropping 42.7% this past weekend and it now stands at $159 million domestically which would be his biggest non Fast and Furious/Jumanji solo vehicle ever. I feel there would be more celebration… if the film didn’t cost nearly $200 million. Globally it stands at $368 million (more than Shazam!, but that film cost much less to make) which is definitely not a great number against that budget. It seems like this is going to have to crawl to $400 million now. A frustrating case of the budget making decent numbers look underwhelming as. Very curious what will be done with this character moving forward.
In other tid bits, Ticket to Paradise is past $62 million domestic and should top out at around $70 million and $170 million global. Lyle, Lyle Crocodile presumably spends its last weekend above $1 million as it now stands at $43 million domestic and $78 million worldwide. Not a hit given the $50 million budget, but the legs were good and it’s likely to get some attention when it hits Netflix in a couple of months. Also Smile is starting to wind down after a phenomenal box office run. The film is now at $104 million in the states and $214 million on the whole.
Conclusion:
And that just about wraps up this week’s edition of Box Office Predictions. It’s a busy one for sure with some big new releases and also expansions of films like The Fabelmans and Bones and All that hope to make something of a dent. There’s also the brief theatrical run of Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, which is now being distributed by Netflix. I have many things I can say about this one, but I’ll save it for next week. Speaking of which, the weekend after Thanksgiving doesn’t tend to be that busy in terms of new wide releases, but we will have one on tap this year. We’ve got the Santa Clause action thriller, Violent Night, which stars David Harbour as Old Saint Nick himself which should be a fun one to look at. Other than that I’m looking to discuss how well the rest of the movies in the marketplace are doing. Anyway, feel free to let me know down in the comments how you think films like Strange World, or Devotion are going to fare in their opening! As always, see you guys next time!
Review Time 