Welcome back everyone to my box office predictions! Like I said last week, this is going to be a weekly thing where I predict how the wide releases of a given weekend are going to do at the box office while also re capping any notable tid bits that happened the weekend prior, including seeing how I fared in my predictions for that weekend. Last weekend was a big one as I looked at both how Black Adam and Ticket to Paradise could do (we’ll go over how they ended up doing when we get to the hold overs). This weekend isn’t quite as notable as we only have one new movie going into wide release, which is the horror film, Prey for the Devil. Still, it is still something so of course I’ll give my two cents on how I think it’ll before as well as going over how last weekends releases ended up doing as well as any other notable hold over business. Without further ado let’s get predicting!
Prey for the Devil
As mentioned, the lone wide release for this weekend is Prey for the Devil, a religious horror thriller distributed by Lionsgate and was actually filmed in the summer of 2020 when some films started to re start production due to the pandemic. It was actually delayed a fair number of times before finally being set for the last weekend of October this year. So now that it’s finally seeing the light of theaters, will this end up scaring up some solid numbers or will Lionsgate need to pray for a miracle? Let’s dig right in!
Pros:
This is a religious horror movies and those have proven that they can have a strong audience that will turn out for them with films like The Exorcism of Emily Rose, The Possession, The Devil Inside, and of course the $2 billion grossing Conjuring Universe franchise reaching varying degrees of success. Heck even just last year during the earlier stages of the box office recovery we had The Unholy legging out to $15 million domestic from a $3 million debut and around $31 million globally on a $10 million budget. A similar result would be perfectly fine for this film.
Given the nature of this type of release, the budget is unlikely to be very high for it. There is no reported price tag at the time of this writing, but something similar to The Unholy seems likely, so the bar for success isn’t too hard to reach and it should become profitable when factoring in home media sales and all of that.
The fact that it is being released the weekend right before Halloween (which lands on a Monday this year) should benefit it given that there will likely be a couple of people looking for a scare that may want to celebrate by checking out something spooky at their local multiplex. Also not hurting it’s chances is that the trailer has likely been attached to the plethora of horror films we have been getting since Beast in mid August like Smile, Halloween Ends, Barbarian, etc. which could definitely raise its profile among general audiences.
That being said, this is still a release that is not likely to put up numbers that high. Why? Well let’s take a look.
Cons:
Marketing has been pretty muted for this one and the promotional materials haven’t really sold this as anything more than a standard exorcism gone wrong hood for picture starring a cast of mostly unknown to the masses actors. That’s not a huge deal breaker, but when there are a plethora of buzzier/unique options like Smile, Barbarian and Terrifier 2 playing at the same time, horror fans may be inclined to wait till streaming or rental to check this one out.
As of the time of writing this, there are no reviews published which doesn’t exactly scream confidence in the movie’s reception. That may not mean much for those just looking for a scare, but again with other better received horror films in the marketplace it’s hard to see this as anyone’s first option.
Lastly, given that it is a horror movie releasing on the weekend before Halloween, strong post debut legs are unlikely as those who want to see it in theaters will likely do so this weekend during the spooky time.
Final thoughts:
As you can see I’m not really expecting much from Prey for the Devil as it is likely to play like a low profile horror movie. It lacks the pre release buzz and acclaim that recent horror sensations have had and probably won’t last too long at the box office. I expect an opening in between last year’s Antlers which came around the same time with similarly muted buzz and this past August’s The Invitation. Legs like the latter ($25 million from a $6 million debut) are very unlikely as it won’t have National Cinema Day landing on it’s second weekend to help in easing a huge drop that horror movies tend to have. I expect it to gross just under what The Unholy did in the states and I expect a similar performance globally unless overseas interest is higher than I expect it to be.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $5 million
Domestic total: $13 million
Worldwide total: $29 million
Not expecting a blow out performance for this one as it looks to come and go at the box office. Still it likely will end up making some money in the end once other ancillary revenues are factored in and it’s existence as a theatrical release will likely raise it’s profile for when it hits those home media markets.
Holdover Business:
We’ve actually got a good bit to talk about here in regard to holdover business. First let’s see how I fared with my predictions from last week.
The big story of course is Black Adam which actually came in above many expectations, as the estimates got higher with each passing day throughout the weekend until the final number came in at $67 million. That marks a new record for the Rock as it is his biggest debut for a star vehicle, besting the $60 million opening of Hobbs & Shaw. I was actually a bit conservative in this regard as I predicted it to open on par with that movie, but still I did say it had a shot at being his biggest solo opener and I was right. It’s also on par with the opening weekend of Aquaman back in 2018 (although we should not at all be expecting it to reach that $335 million domestic total since this ain’t the holidays and it’s got competition to face on it’s fourth weekend). Considering that the film’s biggest selling point was seeing the Rock as a relatively unknown to the masses super hero, I’d say this is a sold win for him as a lead and for DC as well. It also did these numbers despite a less than stellar critical response, as audiences seem to be enjoying this one a lot which will definitely help it maintain some semblance of staying power before Black Panther: Wakanda Forever arrives. It should drop a pretty standard 54-58% in it’s second weekend, on par with the first Venom, Shazam!, and a number of other super hero origins and fly pass $100 million this weekend as well. It also posted a good worldwide opening of $142 million meaning it should clear $200 million globally this weekend as well. We’ll see how it goes from here (again that pesky $195 million budget complicates matters), but so far so good.
Also opening this past weekend in the States was Ticket to Paradise which also saw it’s estimates increase with each passing day until the final figure came in at $16 million. I predicted it to make $17 million so I was nearly dead on with this one! This once again shows that more than just the big tentpoles can succeed theatrically and that older moviegoers will come out for something that looks appealing to them and this George Clooney and Julia Roberts rom com did just the trick. It should have solid holds in the weeks to come as it is the only movie of it’s ilk for quite some time. It also just got past $100 million worldwide thanks to strong international grosses for the past couple of weeks so good job on Universal for having confidence in this one! Here’s hoping the success of this and The Lost City could lead to more theatrically bound comedies and rom coms in the near future!
In terms of older releases the biggest news was Halloween Ends which nearly made history this weekend and not in a good way. Look, I was expecting it to drop like a stone as both previous entries in this trilogy were front loaded, but even I’m shocked at the extent to which it dropped! It fell 80% in it’s second weekend. 80%! While there have been a other wide releases (over 1,000 theaters) that have had larger drops, this is easily the biggest one for a high profile movie that I have seen ever since I’ve started following this stuff. In fact in terms of movies that played in over 3,000 theater or more it has the second biggest second weekend drop behind the 2009 remake of Friday the 13th… which was another entry in an iconic slasher franchise. I guess Michael Myers now owes Jason Voorhees one. Now people are likely to put the blame on Peacock and while I do think that was a factor, I think the poor word of mouth was what did this one in more than anything as no other movie that released simultaneously on a streaming platform same time as theatrical has dropped this hard. Forget $80 million domestic, this is likely to end up finishing around the $65 million that Friday the 13th did, which opened to the same amount as well (both did $40 million in their opening weekend). Yes, it’s probably going to clear $110 million global when all is said and done as it stands at $83 million which would be fine since it didn’t cost a fortune to make, but this is still an abysmal drop no how much it cost and perhaps indicates that it will be a while till Michael Myers comes back to the big screen in some way shape or form.
In better horror news, Smile continues to hold exceptionally well, now at $85 million domestic and $168 million globally and looks to get pass $90 million in the states and pass Nope’s $170 million global tally to become the biggest horror movie of 2022 worldwide. Also Bloody Disgusting’s Terrifier 2 has been making many headlines of late as what started out as a small initially intended as a limited time run has turned into a strong box office run, with the movie actually increasing 70% from the prior weekend and has now made $5 million. For a movie that exists solely because of a successful Indiegogo campaign, only cost $250,000, and is a very niche film (it’s an ultra violent, unrated slasher likely to make those who are easily queasy puke) this is massive win and shows that hits can come from the unlikeliest of places. It is likely to get one last boost with Halloween coming up and judging by what I’ve heard about the movie this is likely going to be a cult favorite that will garner many watches during this time of year and Art the Clown seems to destined to become a new horror icon.
Other quick tid bits: Lyle, Lyle Crocodile looks to finish on par with Peter Rabbit 2: the Runaway (around $40 million) while The Woman King looks to get a final total just under $70 million. We’re also getting ready for some awards session expansions with Till, Tar, and The Banshees of Inisherin heading into more theaters this weekend as all three look to become big presences in the awards race. Let’s hope they can make some solid numbers here as well.
Conclusion:
So that about wraps up this week’s box office prediction! It looks to be a fairly quiet one in terms of new releases but we are bound to get those every now and then. Next weekend looks to be more so as there really isn’t anything going too wide save for the expansion of James Gray’s Armageddon Time which is also likely to become a big talking point this awards season. I’m likely to sit it out in terms of predictions as plat form releases are difficult to predict and there is only so much I can discuss with regards to holdover business. Still, I’ll be back the following week where we only have one wide release, but it’s a big one: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. That’s going to be an interesting one to dive into that’s for sure. Anyways feel free to sound off in the comments and let me know how you think Prey for the Devil or any of the hold overs will perform. As always, see you guys next time!
Review Time 