Welcome back everybody to something I have not done in a very long time! For those of you who don’t know, back in the early days of doing this blog I used to do these monthly box office predictions where I would try and predict how the movies of a given month would do on not just their opening weekend but also domestically and globally. Despite not always having the best batting average when it came to predicting things correctly, they were still fun to make and the only reason I stopped doing them was of course the pandemic, since not very movies were coming out for a good long while and the ones that did weren’t making much noise (all due respect to Tenet, The Croods: A New Age, The New Mutants, The War with Grandpa, and many others that tried to salvage what they could). Even when we started getting more movies in 2021, it was still rather unpredictable how the releases would do and I just didn’t have much motivation… until now. While we are still far from normalcy, I do think the marketplace is in a better position than it was beforehand so much so that I think it would be fun to go back to doing these predictions. However instead of making it monthly I’m going to try and make it a weekly thing. I think it would be better in terms of analyzing individual movies more closely and to check in on how the movies are doing in terms of holdover business. So how this will work is that I am going to look at the new wide releases of the weekend look at how I think they will do based off of a number of factors and then mention any notable holdover business. With that said let’s get started! It’s a big weekend as we have the Rock flying into cinemas in Black Adam, a film that I have a lot to say about regarding box office expectations, and the return of George Clooney and Julia Roberts together on screen again for the rom com, Ticket to Paradise! Without further ado let’s get predicting!
Black Adam
Let’s start off by talking about the biggest release of the weekend the latest installment in the DC universe, Black Adam. This is a project that has been a long time coming as the Rock was first in talks to play this character all the way back in 2007! Now that it’s finally coming out will it truly change the hierarchy of power in the DC universe or will that hierarchy remain unchanged? Let’s start by discussing what this film has in it’s favor!
Pros:
Obviously, the biggest selling point of this movie is seeing Dwayne “the Rock” Johnson, one of the biggest superstars of the planet right now, starring in a comic book super hero movie, which is arguably the most popular type of film that audiences love to flock to. That alone may make this a big deal both for fans of both the Rock and super hero flicks as there is a natural curiosity in seeing Johnson in this type of role. The fact that he is playing more of an anti hero may also pique interest as it is a different kind of role that people usually don’t see from him.
On a similar note, the man has shown that he can open these types of big blockbusters to decent numbers with films like San Andreas, Central Intelligence, Rampage, and (on a COVID curve) Jungle Cruise. Black Adam is also similar to Rampage, Jungle Cruise and the two recent Jumanji films in that while they are based off of some sort of established IP (Rampage is based off an 80s arcade game, Jungle Cruise is based off the classic Disney ride, etc.) they are marketed first and foremost as action adventure movies that star the Rock, which is smart as he is arguably a bigger draw than just those IP in question (or in the case with Jumanji, the ensemble cast is the draw). Heck this can even apply to a lesser extent with Hobbs & Shaw, which while a Fast and Furious spin-off, sold itself as a Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham buddy comedy that just so happened to take place in that universe.
This also has the DC brand attached to it, which while not always a guaranteed selling point (more on that later) still is a selling point for the right kind of movie and I’d argue that Black Adam with it’s star power and the fact that it isn’t selling anything too out of the ordinary or out there for general audiences is just that kind of movie. Plus the addition of the Justice Society is sure to interest fans of the comics and certain casting choices like Noah Centineo as Atom Smasher and Pierce Brosnan as Dr. Fate could definitely help in attracting different kinds of audience members. They may not be openers all by themselves, but together I think they serve as solid added value elements.
Likewise, The Rock has been hyping this film a lot ever since more about it was revealed at DC Fandome in 2020, emphasizing how Black Adam will shake up the DC universe and pave the way for it’s future in certain aspects. Not to mention teasing appearances from certain characters in some capacity, with one in particular that is bound to get fans pumped (haven’t seen the film as of this writing, but judging by early reactions, I think a lot of us know who it is). All of this could very well help in getting even the most skeptical of DC fans out to see it just for curiosity’s sake.
This next point applies more to comic fans as there are many who are un doubtedly curious to see if this ties into Shazam! in any way. After all, Black Adam is known to many as the arch nemesis of Shazam (heck he was originally going to be in the movie before it was decided Black Adam would get his own movie) and the Rock has promised that the two will interact sometime in the future.
Finally the biggest advantage that I’d argue Black Adam has is that it is the first big four quadrant tentpole since Thor: Love and Thunder in early July. While we have seen a number of smaller and mid sized film over performing and doing solid business like The Woman King, Barbarian, Don’t Worry Darling, and especially Smile, there has been no big mega movie to help keep the marketplace fully afloat with many of the summer offerings running their course and films like Bullet Train and DC League of Super-Pets (also starring Johnson and amusingly having Black Adam himself appear in its post credits scene) performing a tad softer than hoped (though both were still very leggy). Thus, there is presumably going to be many movie goers hungry for a big comic book movie like Black Adam. Also benefitting it is that it will have three weekends to itself before Marvel Studios unleashes the sure to be gigantic, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever into theaters on November 11th so that will help in maintaining decent staying power, especially if word of mouth among general audiences is strong. Plus marketing has ramped up in recent weeks and Johnson is going to make sure that everybody in the world (slight exaggeration) knows that this is coming out through his massive social media presence. Honestly, I would not be surprised if it ends up over performing many expectations, solely because of the lack of movies of its ilk since July.
So yes, Black Adam does have a number of things going for it that could help it soar. Heck, even I’m more confident in the movie now, than I was a couple months back. That being said, I do think there are some factors that do make it a bit trickier to predict and that could prevent it from going over the moon.
Cons:
Yes this is a big super hero movie starring the Rock, however this is still a character who is not that well known to people aside from those who are DC fans, so naturally there is always a bit of a financial risk whenever a B or C list character gets the big screen treatment as they can either pay off (Guardians of the Galaxy) or not quite connect with most people (Eternals). Yes I know there is the Shazam connection, but very little of the promotional materials have shown/mentioned much connection aside from Black Adam saying the magic word once, and him having a similar costume. It’s always important to remember that not all audiences pay attention to these things as much as the media would like to have you believe. I would also add that Shazam!, while having less star power arguably made up for that with an appealing concept (essentially the concept of Big, but with a super hero twist), whereas Black Adam seems to be promising fairly standard super heroics, just with the Rock partaking in them.
Likewise, as alluded to earlier, while the DC brand certainly helps in terms of brand awareness, it doesn’t exactly mean people are going to immediately flock to everything that is produced under that brand. We sadly saw this happen with films like Birds of Prey, The Suicide Squad (which admittedly probably would have made more sans Covid) and even DC League of Super-Pets to an extent. Granted Black Adam is arguably a safer bet than a wild and unconventional crime comedy and a hard R rated sequel to a movie that was poorly received, but it is something to keep in mind.
This next point will involve breaking down some numbers, so bare with me. Now I talked about how the Rock has been able to lead some solid action hits in recent years. However, there does seem to be a ceiling for these films in terms of openings and I think that Black Adam is going to have to perform a good bit better than those in order to be deemed worthy. His biggest opening for a non Fast and Furious/Jumanji live action star vehicle in the past 7 years is San Andreas with $54 million which is great for a live action original, but may be (fair or not) a tad underwhelming for a big super hero movie that has a lot riding on it. His other movies like Rampage, Central Intelligence, and Jungle Cruise all opened with $35 million which would definitely not be ideal for Black Adam. Now you may wonder that how come those high profile films were deemed successful with those openings and their eventual totals? Well let’s look at those three individually:
- Central Intelligence was a star driven action comedy starring the Rock and Kevin Hart that only cost $50 million to make, meaning it’s eventual $127 million domestic and $217 million worldwide total (comedies tend to skew more domestic than international) was considered a win given the type of movie it was.
- Rampage’s domestic performance was admittedly pretty soft as it had to crawl past $100 million (largely due to Avengers: Infinity War cutting off it’s legs a bit in it’s third weekend and A Quiet Place stealing a bit of it’s thunder buzz wise). However thanks to strong international numbers ($156 million in China), it was able to gross $428 million worldwide (the third biggest video game movie behind Warcraft and Pokemon: Detective Pikachu) which was good on a $120 million budget and more than other giant monster movies like Pacific Rim and Godzilla: King of the Monsters. It also was not meant to start a franchise so this was more than good enough for a one off project.
- Jungle Cruise is a complicated one. Yes it cost $200 million and was seen as an important release for Disney since it was their best shot at a new successful live action franchise since… National Treasure in 2004. So yes it’s eventual $116 million domestic and $220 million global totals would under normal circumstances not be seen as a win at all. However context is key here as Jungle Cruise was a heavily compromised release as it opened in a time when the Omicron variant was on the rise and it was simultaneously released on Disney+ premiere access day and date. So the fact that it was able to perform in line with other solo Rock vehicles is impressive as well as the fact that it got to over $100 million in a time when not too many films were crossing that mark. The fact that it opened better than expected, was well received, and had strong staying power makes me confident that it would have done much better sans Covid (especially overseas). It even still managed to out-gross almost every other would be live action Disney franchise starter that was released in the past decade in the states (John Carter, the Lone Ranger, Prince of Persia, etc.). Very curious to see how Jungle Cruise 2 will perform if it ends up getting made.
- Then there are movies like Baywatch and Skyscraper which are the two outliers in that they really underperformed. However poor reviews and reception sunk the former ($58 million domestically and $177 million worldwide on a $69 million budget) and the latter had very little to offer aside from the Rock cosplaying as John McClane in a riff on Die Hard and The Towering Inferno (cost $125 million and made only $68 million domestically but $304 million globally thanks to China).
As you can see each of these films individually had specific reason for why they were deemed somewhat successful. Now I personally don’t think it’s going to open in that range as it is a very unrealistic worst case scenario for this type of movie. However I just thought it is important to keep in mind as people will most likely question how these movies did fine on opening and yet Black Adam would be penalized even if it most likely opens higher than them. To put it simply this is a big deal project that won’t have a large wave of Covid infections as a defense if it opens lower than hoped and there is a lot more riding on this, since it is set to be an important film for the DC continuity. It’s going to have to open less like those films and more on par with something like Hobbs & Shaw to be seen as a success on opening weekend and really pull it’s weight in terms of legs and overseas especially given the price point.
Actually let’s talk about that for a moment as that could really affect the conversation around this film’s performance. Until fairly recently I was under the impression that Black Adam was going to have a price point closer to something like the Venom films or Rampage (between $100 million and $120 million) as it is a New Line production (a subsidiary of Warner Bros. Discover) and those don’t tend to cost too much to make. That way if it plays like say Shazam! ($365 million) or Rampage globally that would be a solid result and about in line with most live action non Fast and Furious Rock movies. It would also make sense for WB not to over spend on a movie centered on a fairly unknown to the masses character. Well apparently they’ve got a lot of confidence as the film reportedly cost between $185 and $200 million! That’s a budget right in line with The Batman and Jurassic World Dominion, except that this is a far riskier proposition than either of them. It is now in the position where it has to gross on the level of stuff like Man of Steel, Justice League, and Suicide Squad (between $657 million and $746 million) in order to be deemed a huge success and I just don’t see it getting to those heights. Honestly, even a budget on par with Dune (2021), Godzilla vs. Kong, and Aquaman (around $165 million) would have been fine as I could see it feasibly getting to GvK’s $470 million total (which is also on par with San Andreas). I get that the Rock is going all out with this film and I will admit that judging by the trailers the money certainly shows onscreen. However I just feel like this is way too big of price point for something that is clearly intended to start a franchise… but also isn’t a totally surefire bet.
Last point I want to touch on are the reviews which have leaned more towards the divisive side more than anything. There are plenty of critics and reviewers either heavily panning or heavily praising the film for different reasons. So that definitely may be a concern as one would naturally hope for a strong reception from the critical community. However it isn’t a total deal breaker as judging from what I’ve read many of the notices, even the pans, seem to at least be promising that it delivers what audiences would want from a movie like this. This is very different from reviews that state the contrary with Halloween Ends (which is likely to drop like a stone this up coming weekend) being a recent example. At the very least I can see this being like the Venom movies or Uncharted where the reviews aren’t super but audiences end up having a good enough time nonetheless.
Final thoughts:
Overall Black Adam is going to have to break certain Rock specific ceilings in order to be declared a success and I think it can do that. I think the fact that it is the first big tentpole in a long while will most definitely help it even if there are a lot of things that make me hesitant in saying this will over perform to the extreme. Still, if something like Morbius which had very little to sell aside from having the Marvel name and being sort of connected to Spider-Man can open with $39 million, I think this is bound to get at least over $50 million. At this moment I’m going to predict a $60 million (on par with Hobbs & Shaw) opening weekend which would be the Rock’s biggest non Fast and Furious solo outing ever. Best case scenario would be a debut between $70 and $80 million (on par with F9, Eternal, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Shang-Chi, and Black Widow among others) while worst case scenario I’d argue would be numbers on par with The Rock’s own G.I. Joe: Retaliation back in 2013 ($41 million fri-sun portion of an extended holiday weekend… which is actually not too bad for that film considering it was a sequel to a poorly reviewed predecessor). As for legs, since it is a comic book super hero movie I expect it to be a little bit more front loaded than something like Jungle Cruise or Central Intelligence, but its got three weekends to make money until Wakanda Forever and could still stick around after as a second choice consensus among audiences, so I think a 2.8x multiplier like Rampage and San Andreas is likely which would get it to $168 million. As for worldwide, well the Rock can be a big overseas draw however it is unknown whether or not it will play in China which is a big market for many of his films. Still I can see it performing well in other markets to get over at least the $470 million gross of Godzilla vs. Kong. Over $500 million is possible, but again depends on how strong word of mouth is among general audiences.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $60 million
Domestic total: $168 million
Worldwide total: $485 million
Now I could be wrong and it ends up getting to $200 million domestic and $800 million globally which would be great, but again these are my own personal predictions and I’m curious to see how this one will do. After all, given everything that has been going on with WBD recently (trust me I have a lot of strong thoughts regarding what’s been going on there) I’m sure they would love for this to be a smash and I’m hoping it is as I want nothing but the best for DC and I can’t wait to check it out myself!
Ticket to Paradise
The Rock isn’t the only one storming into theaters this weekend as we have another smaller yet also exciting in it’s own way release with Ticket to Paradise starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts. Universal tries once again this year to show that comedies can still score big at the box office. Will this end up becoming the surprise sleeper they presumably hope it will be or will it continue their financial losing streak of trying to get people into the theater for some laughs? Let’s dive in!
Pros:
The key hook of this film is that it is a reunion between George Clooney and Julia Roberts, two iconic actors sharing the screen which actually hasn’t happened all that much. Aside from the Oceans trilogy, they have only been together in Confessions of a Dangerous Mind in 2002 and Money Monster back in 2016. If that’s not enough, it is the first time in which they have starred together in a full on rom com… which I’m frankly shocked has never happened before. This makes this onscreen reunion more appealing than something like Money Monster (which did pretty well for what it was at $93 million globally on a $27 million budget, with $41 million coming from the States) which was a serious crime thriller and I can definitely see this appealing heavily to the older moviegoing demographic.
Speaking of which, that is a demographic that has been willing to show up in droves for the right kind of movie, with films this summer like Elvis, Where the Crawdads Sing, and of course Top Gun: Maverick appealing greatly to them. Same applies to the female demographic (which this movie is mainly targeting) who had (especially those of older age) until recently been the demographic least likely to return to theaters because of COVID. This year alone has seen that demo flock to films like Dog, The Lost City, Where the Crawdads Sing, The Woman King, and Don’t Worry Darling. If Ticket to Paradise ends up clicking with audiences, it will likely be another indicator that these types of audiences are back in full force.
Also benefitting this film is that both stars can be reliable draws in the right movie, especially Julia Roberts. George Clooney is of course an immensely talented actor, but the types of movies he chooses to star in aren’t the type that tend to be box office behemoths with the exception of the Oceans trilogy and Gravity (though that was Sandra Bullock’s movie through and through). However he has been the face of plenty of acclaimed little hits like Michael Clayton, Up in the Air, The Descendants, etc. and it is because he is such a well regarded actor that he is able help get movies like those made. So seeing him in a more fun role (his first big screen role since Money Monster) will definitely pique some curiosity. Roberts though has shown that she can help sell a movie well. Of course she had that incredible streak of hits back in the 90s and 2000s with with a variety of movies like Pretty Woman, Runaway Bride, My Best Friend’s Wedding, The Pelican Brief, Erin Brockovich and more being big hits. Even recently she has starred in movies like Eat Pray Love and Wonder that did really well with the latter getting over $132 million domestic and $305 million globally. I think her returning to the rom com genre will further interest in Ticket to Paradise and her together with her Oceans co star could make for a pairing audiences would want to see again.
The trailers have done the job of making the film look like a fun time at the movies and the reviews that have been published thus far, seem to promise that it delivers what one expected from the marketing materials which is seeing George Clooney and Julia Roberts together showing off great chemistry and getting in fun scenarios. Not only that, but it has actually been playing in many overseas markets since September where it has racked up $72 million thus far, with plenty more left in the tank and it is even out pacing The Lost City (which made $85 million internationally) in many of the same markets. While this doesn’t mean it will do just as well in the states, it is certainly a good start for a rom com of this nature.
So this is definitely a movie that has sleeper potential written all over it. However, similar to Black Adam, there are still some things that do make me a bit hesitant in declaring it a surefire winner.
Cons:
The big thing here is that the days of a big studio rom com like this being a blow hit are long gone. This isn’t the 90s and 2000s and really the last rom com to hit it big was Crazy Rich Asians all the way back in 2018 with $174 million domestic and $238 million WW. In terms of romantic comedies that were released in the 2010s only 5 of them made over $100 million domestically. Now that doesn’t mean there weren’t plenty that did solid numbers below that, however most of them like No Strings Attached, Friends with Benefits, or Letters to Juliet came out in the early part of the decade. It’s simply not a genre that tends to flood theaters like they used as people have gotten used to seeing them at home, with Netflix in particular doing very well filling that specific niche.
This can also apply to big screen comedies as they are starting to become a rare occurrence ever since COVID hit. With the exception of Jackass Forever in February pretty much every single mid budget studio comedy has done poorly such as Marry Me (also a rom com), Easter Sunday, and even the critically acclaimed Bros. all of which were Universal releases. Granted I’d argue each of those has specific reasons as to why they didn’t do well and I do think Ticket to Paradise is a safer bet than any of them. However it just goes to show the struggle big studio comedies have faced recently.
Finally, similar to Black Adam I feel like the budget for this was way too high. At first I had heard that it cost $36 million which would be a reasonable amount for a mid budget romantic comedy with two huge stars. However, now I’m hearing that the price is around $60 million which I think is just too much for this type of movie. Now it really is going to have to pull it’s weight domestically in order become a profitable endeavor.
Final thoughts:
In all, I’m feeling fairly confident in Ticket to Paradise’s box office potential to the point where I think it can reach the financial success that other comedies just simply weren’t able to recently for one reason or another. I’m expecting a modest opening weekend on par with Where the Crawdads Sing (around $17 million) and I think it’s going to have really strong staying power as it’s the only type of movie of it’s ilk in the marketplace and it looks to be an appealing date night option as well. I don’t see it getting to Crawdad’s $90 million total in the states (that movie released in the summer where it had great weekday grosses and phenomenal holds throughout it’s run), but I can see it doing about as well as Anne Hathaway and Robert De Niro’s The Intern back in 2015 (around $75 million) which was similarly a very crowd pleasing flick. If it continues to hold well overseas than a WW total on par with that film and The Lost City (over under $190 million) is definitely achievable and would be a solid hit for the studio.
So here are my final predictions:
Opening weekend: $17 million
Domestic total: $75 million
Worldwide total: $192 million
Now it could very well go higher in the states, but I see it being a movie that has a good enough opening than gradually makes it’s money over a long period of time. Again I do appreciate that Universal is trying to keep the big studio comedy alive and I hope that with the success of The Lost City and the potential success of this film that more studios will try to rejuvenate that genre for theaters as they can be some of the funniest times to be had at the theaters.
Holdover Business:
This is where I will quickly discuss any things to expect from any of the big movies that are still playing in theaters and how they might hold this up coming weekend.
First and foremost I am expecting last week’s big opener, Halloween Ends, to drop hard in it’s second weekend. It opened a little below expectations with $40 million (although I’d argue it was never going to get past $50 million like many others were saying) and given that it is both available on Peacock and that word of mouth is poor among both critics and general audiences it’s probably going to struggle to get to $80 million. Not surprised as I have seen the movie and my own thoughts notwithstanding it is NOT what I’d imagine most audience members would expect or want. Still, given the $30 million budget and the fact that it is the “finale” (at least for this storyline) this will more likely than not make money in the end.
Meanwhile Smile, which was able to hold it’s own against the return of Michael Myers, looks to continue to hold strong in it’s fourth weekend and looks to eventually get to over $100 million in the states. Definitely one of the biggest success stories of year thus far!
Sony’s Lyle, Lyle Crocodile is also likely to show another solid hold this weekend, being the only big family movie in town at the moment. It may have had a soft opening and it may struggle to make money theatrically due to the $50 million budget, but I’m glad it’s sticking around (have heard surprisingly solid things about it).
The Woman King is likely going to have another strong hold as word of mouth is fantastic and it could very well be in the awards race depending on how this season shakes out. Looks to eventually top $70 million domestic in the end.
Speaking of the awards race, I think it’s safe to say that David O. Russel’s Amsterdam is out of it! The poorly reviewed all star mystery looks like it will struggle to crack $20 million and overseas is unlikely to come to the rescue. I know the days where a movie like American Hustle can get to $150 million domestically are long gone, but this is still an embarrassing result especially for a movie that cost over $80 million! Definitely going to end up being one of the most infamous box office disasters of year.
Conclusion:
So that about wraps up my first in depth weekend box office prediction! Not gonna lie, I had a lot of fun of fun making this and I’m excited to make this a weekly thing! Looking to next weekend it’s going to be a fairly quiet one with only the much delayed horror picture, Prey for the Devil, being the only wide opener of note playing as well as Black Adam heading into it’s sophomore frame. Still I’m looking forward in doing more of these and I hope you all will enjoy reading them as I much as I do making them! Please feel free to sound below to let me know how well you think Black Adam and Ticket to Paradise will do as well what are your predictions for the rest of year that has yet to come!
Review Time 