Hello everybody and welcome back this month’s editions of predicting grosses for the movies of the specific month in question. With January it was just a regular January month with nothing too surprising other than the insane over performance of Bad Boys For Life which looks to be heading for over $200 million domestic, and $400 million worldwide. Its already the biggest new January release (not counting Oscar expansions like American Sniper) here in the states and is easily the first successful blockbuster of the year. Other than that though there’s really not much that was noteworthy except for the predictable flop that was Dolittle (whose numbers would admittedly, look a lot more impressive if it weren’t for the budget). This month however looks to change that with a number of high profile releases that could end up exceeding expectations. Let’s now check out what will be coming out in a month that’s starting to become a home for more big releases in recent years with February!
Right off the bat we one big movie coming out in the first weekend of the month, one which looks to continue a franchise’s winning streak. This is Birds of Prey (and the ridiculously long subtitle which is one that I expect to do well even if it might end up becoming one of the lower grossers of the franchise. Some reasons why I am a bit hesitant to say this will break is out is because other than Harley the other team members are pretty niche characters that only die hard comics fans know, the R-rating could prevent younger fans from showing up, and the trailers have garnered a surprisingly mixed response so far (personally I think they get the job done in terms of selling the film and its tone and make it seem like a lot of fun). Plus this hasn’t been getting as much buzz as other DC films like Wonder Woman, Aquaman, or Joker meaning is isn’t as highly anticipated as those ones (also meaning do not expect numbers anywhere close to that. But this does bring me to some of the reasons why I think this could break out starting with the fact that DC has been on a critical winning streak lately with their movies expected to be good rather than bad. There’s also the fact that Harley Quinn is an extremely popular DC character (not to mention one many consider the best part of the incredibly maligned Suicide Squad) and has many fans and her in the starring role could attract a decent sized audience as well as some of the other cast members (Ewan McGregor being a big one). Add in decent buzz, and postitive notices from critics I see a solid run from this one with a $47 million opening, a $125 million domestic total, and a $375 million worldwide take. Not a huge number but still its okay to have mid tier success in the comic book genre along with the behemoths.
Next up is Valentine’s Day weekend which has been home to a number of big hits in recent years and now a furry blue hedgehog looks to fill in that role this year. What else could I be talking about other than Sonic the Hedgehog whose debut film was originally supposed to come out in November, but thanks to (understandable) complaints concerning the original design, the filmmakers decided to delay the film to February in order to re design Sonic to make him look more like how he looks in the games. Whoever made that decision should be promoted as not only has the buzz, and reactions to the last trailer been the complete opposite of the reception of the teaser but it also gave the film some more publicity making more people talk about it. In fact I feel like the buzz for this one has been increasing more and more as we get closer to release (unlike Detective Pickachu whose buzz somewhat peaked after the second trailer) leading to me to believe an over performance is looking extremely possible. It’s a little weird considering that Sonic has had an up and down sort of decade in terms of the quality of the games, and series. But he is still popular, there hasn’t been a truly big family film since Rise of Skywalker at the latest (all due respect Spies in Disguise, Cats, and Dolittle) and there are plenty of nostalgic fans curious about how this one is going to go down so I’m expecting a $45 million debut, a $138 million domestic take, and a $389 million worldwide total. Oh and Jim Carrey playing Dr. Robonik, a role that fits right in with work in the 90’s doesn’t hurt. The other two releases I’m not expecting much from though their budgets will probably be low enough that the stakes aren’t too high for them. There’s Fantasy Island a horror re imaging of the popular TV show of the same name with Ricardo Montalban, directed by the guy who made the critically reviled Truth or Dare. Yeah I’m not expecting this to break horror’s recent losing streak which is a shame because it is amusing how they turned this old TV show into a horror flick. Alas the marketing, and whose working on it don’t inspire much confidence which leads me to suspect an $11 million opening, a $31 million domestic gross, and a $56 million worldwide take. Lastly there’s the Photograph starring Issa Rae, and Lakeith Stanfield, a film that hopes to attract the loverbirds celebrating Valentine’s Day. I can see this doing reasonably well over the holiday weekend though I don’t expect legs to be very strong considering these types of movies tend to drop like stones after the holiday is over. Not much else to say except a $13 million opening, a $33 million domestic final total, and a worldwide gross of $37 million since I don’t expect much overseas appeal.
For the next two weeks I’ll be combining them into one paragraph since there’s only one wide release on the 28th (though it could potentially hit big). But on the 24th we have The Call of the Wild, an adaptation of the classic Jack London novel starring Harrison Ford and directed by Chris Sanders of Lilo and Stitch, and How to Train Your Dragon fame. Like Sonic there has also been a bit of discussion regarding the CGI of the dogs in this film and its proven to be surprisingly controversial. There are many who are upset about there not being real dogs used and while I understand the complains, its doesn’t bother me that much mainly because it prevents the animals from doing dangerous stunts and I feel like it fits with the story being told (Jack London’s novels like this, and White Fang tend to be pretty brutal in terms of violence). Its also not likely to affect the movie’s financial prospects that much considering general audiences just want to see a good family film and this looks to be just that. I can see it performing modestly even with all of the family friendly competition like Sonic, and Onward hitting it on all corners. While I’m not expecting a blockbuster (especially if the budget is anything over $100 million) I think thanks to the universal appeal of dogs interacting with man, and Harrison Ford as the leading man it can still make an okay $21 million debut, $73 million domestic take, and a $212 million global total. The other release is Brahms: the Boy 2 the much delayed sequel to the surprisingly leggy horror flick from 2016 ($35 million domestic from a $10 million debut, and $64 million worldwide). So of course the studio executives wanted a sequel so now we’re getting it and its probably going to end up being a situation where people were only curious the first time around thanks to the limited amount of buzz, the hilariously bad trailers, and the fact that the original wasn’t what I’d consider beloved by audiences. Not much else to say except $6 million opening, $15 million domestic total (about on par where the Turning, and Gretel and Hansel may end up), and $27 million global gross. It won’t be until the last weekend where we’ll finally get a horror movie that could break out with the Invisible Man. After the Mummy it seems like Universal was desperate to find a use for their classic monsters, but now with this film it seems their finally doing what they’ve arguably should have been doing from the start, actually making the monsters be monsters and not this anti hero, super hero bull crap we’ve been seeing since the Wolf Man in 2010. They’ve also done a great job with the marketing emphasizing the fact that its going to be an intense thrill ride with some important commentary thrown in. Elizabeth Moss is extremely talented, the buzz has been very strong thus far, and its budget was most likely not too high are among the reasons why this could end being the first true blue horror smash of the decade. The only things that do concern me are the fact that it’ll only have two weeks before A Quiet Part II arrives and the fact that the trailers seem a little spoilery but that shouldn’t be too big of a problem. This should perform very well for Universal from a $29 million opening, a $95 million stateside performance, and a $223 million worldwide total.
And that’s about it for February 2020. As always what do you guys think will happen? Will Bird of Prey continue DC’s hot streak? Will Sonic be a much needed hit for Paramount? Will Call of the Wild end up doing even better than I expect it to? Will Invisible Man perform like the Visit or Get Out? All of these questions and more will be answered as the month progresses.
Leave your thoughts down below in the comments and see you guys later!
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