Hello, and welcome everyone to my first box office prediction of the decade! As some of you may know, 2019 was a pretty mixed bag in terms of financial success. Disney won single handedly with them releasing their biggest films (even with Rise of Skywalker falling faster than expected) in one year while Sony, and Lionsgate (with Jumanji the Next Level solidifying the brand as one of Sony’s strongest IPs, and Little Women is expectedly over performing) also achieved some good sized hits as well, while Universal merely had an eh year with nothing to big save for Hobbs & Shaw (with Cats flopping hard even though on paper it seemed like a safe bet). But on the other hand WB had a pretty frustrating year with some of their high profile franchise offerings stumbling, and their slew of adult skewing dramas not quite clicking with audiences, and Fox had so many misses under the Disney Umbrella (Spies in Disguise deserves to be doing much better then it is now). But now this year should be interesting because there is no clear box office champion, as there are many ways things could go. Its going to be quite exciting, although things are probably not going to fully kick into gear until February most likely. That’s not to say there won’t be anything interesting on the horizon this month, its just that January is infamous for being a dump month for movies, where studios just release titles they have little confidence in (with a couple of bright spots here and there). So this one isn’t going to be as in depth as previous post since I really don’t have much to say concerning the financial prospects of most of these films (save for 2 biggies on MLK weekend, and maybe one that I think has some break out potential). Still let’s make the most of a relatively quiet month and see how the first batch of films this decade will fare!
I’ll just combine the first two weekends since there is only one release coming out the first weekend. Ever since the release of Michael Keaton’s Whit Noise, the first weekend of January is usually home to a horror movie with last year’s Escape Room being the most recent, and among the more successful examples. This yearly tradition continues this year with Sony’s reboot of the Grudge which like most of the other horror releases should just come and go at the box office. Sure the franchise is very popular in Japan (with there being countless entries) and the original American remake grossing $110 million domestically, and $187 million worldwide yet there hasn’t been much excitement around this one and the marketing has been pretty muted thus far. Not too mention how the Grudge 2 was extremely front-loaded ($20 million opening, $39 million total, $70 million WW) so this should fare the same fate especially with a deluge of horror content coming out this next few weeks. Even with a strong cast I think a $10 million opening, a $23 million domestic total, and $55 million world wide total is very likely. The very next weekend brings two more wide releases, one of which is yet another horror flick. Kristen Stewart will try to break through into the main stream once again after Charlie’s Angels died a quick death at the box office this past November with Underwater, an underwater creature feature that actually finished filming all the way back in 2017! But then Disney bought 20th Century Fox was bought by Disney and you could tell they have no idea what to do with it because now they are pretty much dumping this film in January. It’s a shame because it looks like a solid thriller, and Kristen Stewart is really talented but the lack of much marketing, and the other higher profile horror films coming out show Disney does not have a lot of confidence in this one. I think this one will come and go with a $6 million opening, a $17 million domestic take, and a $36 million worldwide gross. Lastly there’s the Tiffany Haddish, Rose Byrne, and Salma Hayek comedy Like a Boss. All three of these actresses have proven to be effective comedic talents, and it could surprise as a girl’s night out party movie (a la Mamma Mia, Ocean’s 8, Grils Trips, Hustlers, etc.). Yet I still expect a quiet performance from it since there isn’t too much buzz behind it, and it feels like something that people would wait until renting to watch, so I expect a $12 million opening, a $33 million domestic gross, and a $50 million global cume.
Now we come to MLK weekend which has proven to give boosts to movies openings, and legs so it makes sense we are getting two high profile biggies one that could very well break out, and one that may face a huge uphill challenge no matter how high it opens. The former would be Bad Boys For Life which is has been one of those projects that has been in development hell for such a long time, that many were starting to question whether it would happen or not. But here we are, and the long awaited third installment of the Will Smith and Martin Lawrence buddy cop franchise is finally coming out almost two decades after Bad Boys 2 released. The first one was a sleeper hit back in the 90s grossing $65 million domestic from a $15 million opening, and $141 million globally, while the sequel (capitalizing on the two lead’s star power) was something of a breakout sequel grossing a lot more with $138 million from a $46 million debut in the states, and $273 million WW. But 2003 was a long time ago and Will Smith, and Martin Lawrence are nowhere near as big of draws as they were back then. So that and with the caveat of whether people still care about this franchise or not, will audiences want to spend (allegedly) one last time with Mike Lowery, and Marcus Burnett? While I’m not expecting blockbuster business I can still see this being a decent sized hit. Will Smith may not be a huge draw outside of a known IP but in one he can still pull in some decent crowds (as proven by Suicide Squad, and Aladdin), trailer responses have been pretty positive (my audience for Knives Out reacted quite well when the trailer played), and this will most likely attract a lot of nostalgic fans of the previous films as well. So yeah I am expecting this one to do pretty well as unlike Sony’s Grudge reboot (new actors in the same story), this one is much safer bet (same story but returning stars) and I expect a $38 million opening, a $110 million domestic cume, and a $256 million world wide take. But now we’ve got Robert Downey Jr.’s Dolittle which is looking to be something of an infamous disaster even though it hasn’t come out yet. But why is that? I mean the character of Dr. Dolittle has been around for almost a century and the Eddie Murphy flicks on the 2000s were decent sized hits, Robert Downey Jr. and the huge cast could be a good draw, and there is plenty of potential for a new take on the property to be a fun, and decent family flick. Now all of that is absolutely true but the reason everyone is so pessimistic about it can be described in three words. INSANELY EXPENSIVE BUDGET! Thanks to huge re shoots that took place awhile back, the film’s budget skyrocketed to a whopping $175 million! That’s a lot of money, especially for a freaking Dr. Dolittle movie! This means that the film has to break records just to break even, so it has to become the biggest talking animal movie ever (which rarely make anything above $500 million with the exception of Secret Life of Pets, or even Zootopia) and that’s never a good thing. This could also be yet another huge flop for Universal after the CATastrophe (pun intended) of their musical in December (hey at least they’ve got 1917 on the docket for wide release). They’ve also haven’t done a lot of marketing for the film and the trailers have gotten a mixed reception at best. It’s really frustrating because this had a lot of potential to be a decent sized success and a potential new franchise for the studio, but barring an overseas miracle it could end being their proverbial John Carter (and its all thanks to darn price tag). I predict a $22 million opening, a $72 million domestic take, and a $212 million worldwide total. Oh well at least Universal’s got Dominic Toretto, and Gru ready to rake in those crowds this summer.
The third weekend brings two wide releases with the Turning, and the Gentlemen. The former looks to be yet another generic horror flick dumped in the middle of January, but should still perform fine, since I really doubt it cost that much. It’s got a good cast including Finn Wolfhard of Stranger Things fame, and that really all I can say about this haunted house flick. It should do well enough with a $12 million opening, a $33 million domestic total, and a $45 million worldwide cume even with all of the horror flicks releasing these next few weeks. The latter is the one I’m more interested though as it is Guy Ritchie’s return to crime capers. I can see the Gentlemen breaking out thanks to its strong cast of well known’s (Charlie Hunnam, Matthew McConaughey, Colin Farrell, Henry Golding, and many more), and its energetic marketing that teases a really fun time at the movies. And while I don’t know how big of a draw Guy Ritchie is (I wouldn’t really consider him the reason King Arthur flopped, and Aladdin succeeded) but it his involvement doesn’t hurt. What I’m a little worried about is that the Turning might over perform leaving this film to not do as well as I’d hope (kind of similar to the October 2014 show down of John Wick, and Ouija), but that shouldn’t be too big of a cause for concern. I think a $16 million opening, a $54 million domestic total, and a $135 million worldwide take is possible and maybe it could go up since reviews have been pretty solid. The last weekend also sees two more releases that should do quiet business since none have gotten huge marketing pushes thus far. Gretel & Hansel could break out though the amount of demo graphic competition has me a little hesitant about that. It looks pretty unsettling and is one of the more intriguing horror offerings in these two months but this is one we’re we’ll have to wait until more marketing, and buzz comes around. So for now I’ll stick with a $6 million opening, a $15 million domestic total, and a $25 million worldwide take. Meanwhile the Rhythm Section might struggle a bit due to its very familiar revenge filled premise, and the fact that Birds of Prey might cut its legs short thanks to it coming out the next weekend. While Blake Lively could help this just as she helped the Shallows, and A Simple Favor achieve financial success, the competiton is just stronger here then it was when those two flicks released. I hope I’m wrong as it’s (only) trailer is pretty good but it looks like this is going to come and go with a $9 million debut, a $28 million domestic take, and a $44 million worldwide total or about on par with 21 Bridges in November.
Welp, that’s about it for January 2020! Not a very big month but still at least there are a couple of things to look forward to. So what do you guys think will happen? Will any of the horror flicks be able to co exist or will they cannibalize each other? Will Bad Boys For Life surprise? Is Dolittle destined for box office infamy? All of these questions, and more will be answered in the calm before the storm that is the months after in terms of high profile new releases.
Leave your thoughts down below in the comments and see you guys later!
Review Time 