Welcome back everyone to this month’s edition of box office predictions. This one will be pertaining to the month of December, a time of joy, giving, and spending time with the ones you love. It’s also the time when movies can get ridiculous multipliers thanks to kids being out of schools, and adults out from work. It’s how the big fantasy film of the month (Star Wars, Middle Earth, Avatar, Aquaman, etc.) sticks around after a big opening or how smaller scale awards season contenders, or family flicks can stick around after less than massive openings. Its always a very exciting time for people into box office, and it makes even the most the most pessimistic of pundits optimistic. Hopefully this month fares a little better than November which was the very definition of a mixed bag. On the one hand we had a number of surprise hits with the likes of Ford V. Ferrari, Knives Out, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, and more alongside the surefire success of Frozen II. On the other hand we had some of the biggest losses of the year with Terminator Dark Fate (which did end up living up to it’s name, and most likely killed the franchise), Midway (which would be performing fine if it weren’t for the massive budget), and Charlie’s Angels (yet another failed reboot from Sony) among others. So now let’s take a look at the box office for December which looks to have a nice variety of new releases, and see how each one could fare.
For the first week I’ll just combine it with the second week since there’s really only one new release which is typical for the first or second weekend of December which is usually a dead week for new releases since nothing of note comes out. That continues here with the much delayed Playmobil: the Movie which is finally releasing, and if you remember that my prediction for this film all the way back in August I said I wasn’t expecting much from this one, and that remains the case here. Despite the relative popularity of the toyline, and the stacked voice cast (Daniel Radcliffe, Jim Gaffigan, and Anya Taylor Joy among others), the marketing, and buzz has been very muted, reviews have been pretty mediocre, and it will be facing similar demographic competition from the holdover likes of Frozen II. In fact it’s already been released in certain territories, and hasn’t been doing too swell so I don’t expect the U.S. performance to be any different. I’m going to predict a $2 million opening, a $5 million domestic take, and a $20 million global total. Now let’s head on to the next weekend which sees the return of to a video game world, a remake of a classic slasher flick, and an autobiographical drama from Clint Eastwood. Let’s first talk about Jumaji the Next Level, the sequel to the surprise hit of 2017, Jumaji Welcome to the Jungle, which sees Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Karen Gillian, Jack Black, and Nick Jonas reprising their roles as video game avatars, with newcomers Danny Devito, Danny Glover (both of whom are involved in a neat twist), and Awkawfina joining the fun. Talk about added value elements am I right? But anyway I think the Next Level will do well if not nearly as well as Welcome to the Jungle for a number of reasons. First of all Welcome to the Jungle made so much (a whopping $404 million domestic from a $36 million 3 day, and $962 million globally, a great example of the power of Christmas legs), and felt like such a lighting in a bottle success that a downturn for the sequel is all but guaranteed. Second of all it will releasing before Star Wars not after and there will be a lot of family competition, meaning its legs probably won’t be as strong. Lastly buzz while decent isn’t quite as strong as I was expecting though that will probably change closer to release. But again, I still expect a good performance because of how well liked the first one was, and (this is important) how much audiences liked this character, and I’m sure they will be happy to go on another adventure with them. Not to mention the really funny marketing which has made sure to emphasize the whole body switching twist which is one of the biggest highlights of these films. I’m almost certain this will end up performing how we all thought it’s over performing predecessor would do akin to It Chapter 2, and the Secret Life of Pets 2, though I wouldn’t rule out a breakout sequel like performance on opening weekend at least. So I’ll go with a $60 million opening weekend, a $234 million domestic total, and a $657 million worldwide take which would be excellent for Sony. There’s also Black Christmas, a remake of the 1974 horror movie (the first slasher movie I believe), and the second remake of that film after the one from 2006. Not sure if everyone is anticipating with bated breath, for another one of these, but it should still do decent business. I mean its a horror movie (that presumably cost very little) releasing on Friday the 13th which has proven to give a boost to horror flicks in recent memory like Happy Death Day, and Truth Or Dare for examples. Sure that will probably mean some front loading, which sounds about right but it is oddly the only Christmas related release coming out this month (Last Christmas wasn’t exactlty the surprise sleeper hit I was expecting), so that could help it somewhat. While I’m not expecting great things quality wise I still think a $16 million opening, a $38 million domestic take, and a $57 million worldwide cume sounds about right. Last up for this week is the latest based on a true story drama from Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell, which concerns the security guard who stopped a potential bombing of the Centennial Olympic Park in Atlanta Georgia only to have the media turn on him by creating these stories saying he was the one who planted that bomb. It looks like an interesting story, and I myself am always interested in these types of based on true events stories especially if I’m not familiar with the event in question. Anyway when it comes to these types of movies, Eastwood has been able to turn them into good sized success with the likes of American Sniper, Sully, and the Mule all being surprise hits (the former especially). Now while I don’t think this is going to make as much as those films mentioned above, I still expect it to serve as solid counter programming during the holiday season thanks to a cast full of adult favorites like Jon Hamm, and Sam Rockwell, and reviews have been really good so far with some calling it Eastwood’s best film in a long time. With that said I’m expecting some good things from this one with a small $14 million opening, but it should be leggy enough to hit $66 million domestically, and $120 million worldwide which would be very good for this film.
Now this weekend we have have some pretty high profile new releases making their way to theaters, including a farewell to a galaxy far far away (well at least that’s what their saying). Yep I am of course referring to Star Wars the Rise of Skywalker, the ninth mainline entry in the groundbreaking series, and the final installment in the Skywalker saga. Now this film has a lot to prove, including if all of the constant online handwringing over the Last Jedi for the past two years (which by the way DID earn $620 million domestic, and $1.3 billion worldwide in December of 2017) was arguably only representative of a local minority rather then being representative of general audiences overall which is probably its biggest financial hurdle, and if this year has been any indication it will probably have no problem over coming it. After how well Captain Marvel, and Aladdin did even with the constant online backlash I’m starting to think that maybe, I don’t know, that the general populace doesn’t care about such matters like these. Well I certainly want those toxic haters (not the people who don’t like the new movies for artistic reasons, and are respectful towards others, and their opinions) to be proven wrong when this movie makes big bucks, and there’s reason to believe that will happen. Buzz has been steadily increasing in the last few months with the film’s big “The saga will end” hook having proven to be very effective for the likes of Harry Potter, Twilight, Lord of the Rings, and more, Star Wars is still a big brand, and is still popular with people of all ages, and certain returning stars (like Billy Dee Williams as Lando Calressian, Ian McDiarmid as Sheev Palpatine, and the Carrie Fisher being brought back through digital means as Princess Leia) will certainly attract many fans. Sure people will argue that maybe Solo’s disastrous performance (an okay enough $213 million domestic, but thanks to it being completely ignored overseas, $392 million worldwide on a way too expensive $275 million due to extensive re shoots) was a sign of franchise fatigue, but I don’t think that will affect it mainly because of how small scale, and (quality notwithstanding) inconsequential it was, plus let’s be honest did general audiences really care for a Han Solo flick anyway? Oh, and even if it ends up making less than the previous mainline entries on opening weekend, it could still end up being the leggiest Star Wars movie sine Phantom Menace thanks to the holidays landing on its first full week (a benefit Last Jedi did not have), so like with all Christmas releases don’t panic if it opens below expectations. Oh, and even it some how has a steep drop overseas like say Jurassic Park 3, it will still make over $760 million, or above most of the other non Disney flicks save for Joker. So with that said my prediction for the end of the Skywalker saga will be a huge $205 million opening, and it will leg out to an even bigger $675 million domestic, and of course an excellent $1.2 billion worldwide cume. Here’s hoping this legendary saga goes out with a financial bang. But Rise of Skywalker is not the only film coming out this particular weekend that has the internet on fire, and this one will be the biggest film to go up against a Star Wars film directly. You know that I am talking about the now legendary, Cats, the film adaptation of Andrew Lloyd Weber’s long running hit Broadway musical of the same name. Now if you thought the online backlash for Star Wars was bad, Oh boy do we have a movie that the internet has been having fun with ever since that trailer came out (and unlike Star Wars hate, these comments have been actually kind of funny to look at). People have been (somewhat justifiably) complaining non stop about how creepy these humanoid motion capture cat people look, and while I can see that affecting its performance it probably won’t too much mostly for some of the reasons I stated above concerning the Rise of Skywalker. The general populace is not going to pay attention to these matters, and if they want to see a movie version of Cats then they will gladly spend money to do so. It also helps that Cats is being sold as the big musical (a genre that has proven to be a very safe bet) event of the season which most certainly benefited the Greatest Showman ($174 million domestic/$435 million WW), Mary Poppins Returns ($171 million/$345 million WW), and Les Miserables ($148 million/$441 million WW) among many others. Heck this could very well end up being a situation akin to Mamma Mia where that hit musical was able to thrive alongside the Dark Knight on opening weekend, and leg it from $27 million to $144 million domestic. The stacked full of huge names like Taylor Swift, Rebel Wilson, James Corden, Idris Elba, and more shall benefit greatly as well. So with that said I’ll go with a $20 million opening, a $96 million domestic total, and a $288 million worldwide gross, though I wouldn’t rule out even stronger overseas grosses. Besides this just looks so bizarre, and insane that you just have to see it to believe it. The last one on the docket is Lionsgate’s potential awards contender, Bombshell, the story of the women who accused Fox News creator, Roger Ailes, of sexual allegations. The studio’s been having a pretty solid year thus far and while I don’t know if this will end up being a big player in the awards race I still expect a decent performance from this one. The subject matter should intrigue people in the wake of the #TimesUp movement, and the cast is comprised of Nicole Kidman, Margot Robbie, Charlize Theron, John Lithgow, Kate McKinnon, and more who are trying to win an Oscar. It probably won’t break out to much considering early reactions have been pretty mixed, and buzz isn’t as scorching as some of the other big awards players but it should be fine with a $7 million wide debut, and thanks to holiday legs, a $45 million domestic take, and a $66 million worldwide gross, similar to how last year’s Vice did (hopefully this one was cheaper to make).
Now we have made it to the final two wide releases of not just the month but the decade (think about that for a second). And what better way to end things off then with two very different releases opening on Christmas day, another adaptation of a classic novel with a star studded cast, and a kid friendly animated action comedy starring Will Smith, and Tom Holland. Let first talk about Greta Gerwig’s Little Women starring (deep breath) Emma Watson, Saoirse Ronan, Timothee Chalamet, Meryl Streep, Eliza Scanlon, Laura Dern, and who knows whoever else wanted to join in the fun. Now that’s what I call an A-list cast right there, and we’ll see if Greta Gerwig is able to secure another best director Oscar nomination after Lady Bird in 2017 but I still believe this will be one of the more financially successful awards season flicks. It’s got the well known brand on its side with fans of the novel likely to show up (even if this is like the 15th adaptation) as well as fans of British dramas like this. The reviews have also bee very strong so far with many of them stating how this one manages to justify itself as a strong adaptation that stands on its own very well. Oh, and it’ll be opening on Christmas Day with a presumably leggy multiplier should word of mouth among audiences be good to boot. Yeah there’s really not much to say nor be concerned about with this one, and I’ll think it’ll end up being a good size hit for Sony with $15 million over the 3 day, $25 million over the 5 day, $101 million for the domestic numbers, and $211 million around the globe. As for the other release I also expect good business from it as well. Once again Blue Sky Studios is going up against Star Wars with Spies In Disguise. Last time they did this it was with Ferdinand which opened poorly ($13 million) but had very strong legs that got it to $84 million domestic, and $296 million worldwide. That could give us an idea of how this one will perform, although I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up going a little higher. Disney, and 20th Century Fox have given the film a big marketing push in recent months, and they even premiered it pretty early meaning that they might have some more confidence in the film than initially we thought, Will Smith, and Tom Holland together makes for a fun pair, and could attract fans of their works, and the trailers have done a great job of showing off the action, and the comedy angles of the film. Like Ferdinand it will also serve as great counter programming to the big blockbusters of the month, and Blue Sky’s original films in general tend to do pretty well. I also expect it to play well into January similar to how Spider-Verse performed last year, especially if reviews turn out to be strong. So with that said I expect the last animated film of the decade to earn $17 million over the 3 day, $27 million over the 5 day, and $100 million in domestic money, and and $288 million in global dollars.
So that just about wraps up this month’s predictions. As always what do you guys think? Will Jumanji capture lightning in a bottle twice? Will the Rise of Skywalker prove the online hate was representative of the general public? Will Cats inspire internet memes, and be a hit (yes for the former)? Will Spies in Disguise fly high? Heck maybe the new My Hero Academia movie will pull a Dragon Ball Super Broly when it opens in Japan on December 20th! I am eager to see how all of these films will turn out (both financially, and quality wise) before 2019 comes to a close, and the new decade of 2020 is ready to commence!
Leave your thoughts down below in the comments and see you guys later!
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