Welcome back everyone to this monthly tradition of predicting what amounts of money each wide release film of the month will make. Last month went about as well as I was expecting, even even with Joker seriously over performing way above what I was expecting (could very well get to a billion dollars), and Gemini Man doing a lot worse than what expected (seriously that one just came, and went like nothing). But Addams Family unsurprisingly was a solid hit (review for that in coming weeks), Zombieland 2 ended up staying flat, and Maleficent Mistress of Evil (again review in coming weeks) is performing well below its predecessor domestically (overseas is a completely different stories, as it might be one of the quietest movies to make over $500 million). But now we here to look at one of the biggest movie months in general November, and we have a lot coming out in these past few weeks. So without further ado lets take a look at will hit it big, what will bomb hard, and what will end up in between!
Lets start with the first weekend which sees 4 new films hitting wide release, with the biggest one being Terminator Dark Fate which hopes not to live up to its name. I think I don’t really need to explain this franchise’s already infamous reputation again, so I’ll I’m going to say is that this is yet another attempt at a Terminator franchise revamp (the third one to be precise), and its bringing back James Cameron as a producer, Linda Hamilton as Sarah Conner, and Arnold Schwarzenegger as an old T-800, and even bringing in Deadpool’s Tim Miller to direct. There’s also a nice diverse cast of new faces, and the fact that this will be a direct sequel to Judgement Day which could attract those who are on the fence. The big problem is that there are presumably a lot of people who are on the fence! After Salvation underwhelmed both critically, and commercially, and Genysis tanking critically but somewhat succeeding financially (yes it bombed here with $89 million, but it still made an okay $440 million worldwide, though $113 million coming from China, but still people didn’t like it so that’s why no sequel), are people willing to give this franchise another chance? I mean reactions to the trailers have been mixed, and I know people who are not at all interested. Well I think domestically it will probably only attract the hardcore and not much else, but international markets should help it out a bit (similar to the Alien, and Predator franchises). A performance on par with Genisys wouldn’t surprise me so a $37 million opening, an $85 million domestic total, and a $445 million worldwide cume would be fine, even if this franchise is the pure definition of insanity either the creators doing the same thing expecting a bigger result. The next release is a long awaited biopic concerning the most famous member of the Underground Railroad, Harriet Tubman simply titled Harriet, starring Cyntia Ervio as the title character. Supposedly many people have been demanding for a film centering on Harriet Tubman for a long time, but will they actually show up for it now. Well while it may lack the awards attention of some of the other films this Fall season it still could end up being a leggy crowdpleaser if word of mouth is good. It looks solid, and biopics like this tend to attract a lot of people especially if they deal racial issues (Hidden Figures is great example I could think of, though this will probably not be nearly as big as that). So I predict a decent enough $12 million opening, a $66 million domestic take, and a $95 million worldwide total which would be a pretty good result for this movie. We also have a movie that’s been in the makings for 20 years, and is a huge passion project for star, and director, Edward Norton in his first directing role since 2000, Motherless Brooklyn. This is yet anther WB film aimed at adults that’s likely going to flop financially a la the Kitchen, Blinded by the Light, and the Goldfinch. I hate this has been happening to them but people just don’t go to the theaters for this types of movies anymore even if they have a stacked cast like this one (Bruce Willis, William Dafoe, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, and Alec Baldwin among others). Couple that fact in with the lack of awards buzz surrounding the title, and it will probably have an even darker fate than the Terminator sequel with a $4 million opening, a $9 million domestic gross, and a $20 million worldwide cume. Finally we have Arctic Dogs a brand new animated film starring Jeremy Renner, John Cleese, Angelica Houston, Alec Baldwin, and more (something the trailers will let you know every time). You know I didn’t even know this was a thing until I saw the trailer attached to Toy Story 4, and boy have they been showing that trailer every time I went to see a family film. And it looks like the most generic animated kids flick I’ve seen in quite some time with the usual fart jokes, celebrity casting, and straight to DVD looking animation (how the hell does this cost $50 million). Yeah not much to say except $3 million opening weekend, $8 million domestic total, and $12 million worldwide total. I mean how can this not end up bombing?
After that crowded weekend, we have another crowded weekend with yet another 4 wide releases (geez, can’t we get a little bit of breathing room), each of them aiming for a different target audience. First we have a brand new Stephen King adaptation, that is also a sequel to one of his most popular works (in both literature, and film), the Shining. Now in hindsight this should be a Blade Runner 2049 type situation which is a cult classic film which only film nerds get excited about, get a sequel. The difference whereas that film was a huge flop, this will most likely end up doing solid business, mainly because I really doubt this film’s budget was over $150 million. There’s a lot going for this one, fans of both the film, and novel will show up, buzz has been very strong this past few weeks, early reviews have been very positive, its the first big horror movie since It Chapter 2, and with actors like Ewan McGregor, and Rebecca Ferguson starring. To be honest there’s really not much wrong that could go except for possible front loading, but again it doesn’t need to break records to break even. So that’s why a $27 million opening, $77 million domestic total, and $166 million worldwide gross would be pretty excellent for WB. Next up we have what could end up an unsurprising sleeper hit, that everyone will be surprised at, Last Christmas. Lets see great cast (Emilia Clarke, and Henry Golding as the two lovebirds in the story, check. A director known for directing some decent sized hits in Paul Feig, check. A Christmas setting that’s sure to get people excited about the holiday, check. It’s opening on where a lot of the big Chritmas movies core huge multipliers, check. The soundtrack comprised of the hits of George Michael, check. Yeah, I think this will be insanely leggy, and if its good word of mouth will definitely spread leading to this being a big winner with a $17 million opening which would be decent but I think it will leg its way to $100 million domestic, and $174 million worldwide. After that we have Roland Emmerich’s latest, Midway which is coming out just in time for Veteran’s Day. I think this one could end up over performing a little, and be a solid hit similar to Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge back in November of 2016 ($67 million domestic from a $15 million opening, and $174 million world wide). We don’t get too many war movies nowadays, and this is based off a pretty significant turning point in WWII (the Battle of Midway) that I don’t think has been adapted to screen but if I’m wrong let me know down below. Not to mention the stacked cast full of a bunch of well known talent (Patrick Wilson, Ed Skrein, Woody Harrelson, Nick Jonas, etc.), and that this will mostly likely attract a lot of older flocks who still go to the movies regularly. I Think it will do about as well as Hacksaw Ridge with a $17 million opening, a $68 million domestic finish, and a $155 million worldwide total. Last up for this weekend is Nickelodeon’s second theatrical movie this year after Wonder Park, John Cena’s Playing With Fire whose trailer, just like Arctic Dogs’s always played in front of the family friendly films I would see (and it was the same one every time, and I got tired of it really fast). This one will probably just come, and go as I think families will be saving their money for a certain Disney sequel on the horizon (which we will get to soon), even if the kids in the theater did get some good laughs from it (I was just sitting there wishing Nickelodeon made better choices nowadays). Not much to say for this one except $8 million opening (we’ve been getting a lot of those recently), and it could leg it out to a decent enough $26 million domestic take, and a $50 million worldwide cume.
In the third frame we have 3 big releases each of which are very different from each other. I might as well start this off with the one I’m most excited about, Ford V. Ferrari. This is a pretty important release since it is the biggest chance Fox has to prove they can make big movies like this after Ad Astra sadly under performed (why!!), and there’s reason to believe this one will succeed where that one failed. It’s most likely going to be more crowd pleasing/accessible to mainstream audiences than that Brad Pitt sci fi flick, buzz has been very strong thus far with some possible awards season recognition in play, two A-list leads in the form of Matt Damon, and Christian Bale, early reviews out of the festival circuit have so far been very positive, and the trailers have been pretty great (that first one is plays great on the big screen). Really my only concerns are that the budget was a whopping $97 million which means it might have a challenge making money even if the numbers themselves are pretty good, and it’s 2 hours and 30 minute runtime was longer than expected but that ones a pretty minor concern for what could possibly a very leggy performer. I’m hoping it could go beyond my prediction of a $32 million opening, a $112 million domestic take, and a $290 million worldwide gross, and it might if everything goes according to plan. Now we have Sony trying yet again to revive one of their franchises with Charlie’s Angels, a film that has started to become a bit of a financial question mark in recent months. That’s not to say there isn’t any value in reviving this IP as both the original TV show, and feature films were solid hits in their days (with both of them topping $100 million+ domestic, and $200 million+ worldwide), the cast especially the main trio (Kristen Stewart, Naomi Scott, and Ella Balinska, as well as Elizabeth Banks as Bosley) includes plenty of popular character actresses, and it could prove to be a fun girl’s night out flick in the vein of Ocean’s 8, Girl’s Trip, and this year’s Hustlers. However there’s doesn’t seem to be too much excitement surrounding the feature, with buzz being pretty muted, and the trailers being indifferently received by people. Couple that in with the facts that the cast isn’t exactly a butts in the seat kind of draw, and this just seems more like MIB International (same basic premise as the other films, just different people), than Jumaji Welcome to the Jungle (uses the IP to create something different) in concept. While it could very well surprise, I just feel its going to come and go with a $16 million opening, a $52 million domestic gross, and a $148 million worldwide total. Finally, WB has yet another adult targeted flick coming this month, except this one might actually end up doing well. I am referring to the con artist flick, the Good Liar, starring what is this film’s biggest selling point Helen Mirren, and Ian McKellen. I think this one could avoid the fate of stuff like the Kitchen thanks to both leads being able to attract some of the more older moviegoers who still see stuff like this in theaters (Mirren’s the Woman in Gold was able to leg it to $33 million domestic in 2015). I am a little hopeful for this handsome looking drama that could be very leggy in the long run with a $9 million opening, a $33 million domestic take, and a $62 million worldwide total, but then again I though Blinded by the Light would be a leggy hit, and well…
For the next frame we’ve got what’s most certainly going to end up being the biggest grosser of the month, Frozen II. The sequel to the animated pop cultural phenomenon that broke tons of record, and is still the highest grossing animated movie of all time (unless if you count the Lion King 2019, in which it is the second, but still pretty impressive. No doubt it will be huge on opening weekend where it will be releasing on in the same slot that’s been home to some of the Harry Potter, Twilight, and Hunger Games movies opened, all of which were some variation of massive, and there is reason to believe this will not befall the same fate as other animated sequels this year (Lego Movie 2, Secret Life of Pets 2, and Angry Birds Movie 2). First Disney has done a shockingly good job of not over saturating Frozen since it came out (with the exception of the two theatrical shorts that were released), people love the characters and are most likely ecstatic to meet up with Anna, Elsa, Olfaf, and Kristoff again, the trailers have promised a bigger, and darker sequel (and have even won over those who were on the fence such as myself), the brand has proven itself to be a merchandising monster, and is very popular with young audiences, and the buzz has been hot ever since that first trailer debuted. So it will almost certainly make more than the original in the long run, but I have a feeling its legs won’t be quite as strong. One of the reasons why Frozen was so ridiculously leggy ($400 million domestic from a $67 million 3 day opening), was because there was little in the way of big kid friendly competition between it, and the Lego Movie in February with most of December, and January consisting of adult skewing flicks, and a violent PG-13 fantasy epic, the Hobbit the Desolation of Smaug. This time, it won’t have that advantage as Jumaji the Next Level, Rise of Skywalker, Cats, Spies in Disguise, and Little Women will all be opening in the coming weeks ahead meaning this will most likely not be as leggy as the original. Still its still going to end up huge with a predicted a $145 million opening, a $425 million domestic total, and a $1.2 billion global haul which should be just over under the first one. Sony, and STX both plan on aiming for older audiences this weekend with the Tom Hanks led Mister Rogers biopic, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, and the Chadwick Boseman led action thriller, 21 Brides respectively. The former looks to be a major upcoming awards contender that could end up doing well as the feel good movie of the season, and Hanks playing real world heroes is a strong selling point for older demographics (as proven by Captain Phillips, and Sully among others), especially if its someone as beloved as Mister Rogers (just last year Won’t You be my Neighbor scored big with a $22 million gross which is huge for a documentary). Should be a leggy hit, and serve as excellent counter programming with an $18 million opening, a $105 million domestic take, and a $200 worldwide gross. As for the latter, it could go either way because while The Russos producing, and Boseman starring could help their not exactly butts in the seats draws, and the number of delays that have greeted this one have me a little concerned (from July to September to this very weekend in November). Sure it being a real world action movie could help it stand out in the marketplace but, this will probably just come and go with a $10 million opening, a $30 million domestic total, and a $66 million worldwide gross.
Time to head into the final quarter with only two flicks coming out on the Wednesday of Thanksgiving week, a murder mystery, and a racial drama both of which have been getting very strong critical reactions from the festival circuit. With Rian Johnson’s Knives Out I think this one will surprise, and end up being a sleeper hit in the vein of 2017’s Murder On the Orient Express remake ($102 million domestic from a $28 million opening, and $352 million global). Just like that Kenneth Branagh Who Dunnit? this a type of genre we don’t get much of nowadays so that will certainly make this one somewhat special, and the cast is a literal murderer’s row of talent including (*deep breath*) Daniel Craig, Lakeith Stanfield, Jamie Lee Curtis, Chris Evans, Micahel Shannon, Christopher Plummer, and more. So yeah, I think it will end up doing better than Johnson’s Looper, and it will end up being leggy especially if word of mouth is as good as expected. So cue $16 million for the 3 day, $27 million for the 5 day, $86 million for its domestic run, for $190 million global run. As for Queen & Slim that will probably not make as much, but still do okay for the type of flick it is (so long as the budget is not too high). Racial dramas like this have been struggling lately with last year having some high profile under performers like the Hate U Give, Blindspotting, and If Beale Street Could Talk despite all getting good reviews. This one should perform a little better given its proximity to awards season, and with Get Out’s Daniel Kaluuya in a lead role. So should perform decently if not anything too amazing. I’ll go with $8 million for the 3 day, $14 million for the 5 day, $33 million for it’s domestic haul, and $56 million for its worldwide performance.
So that’s a wrap for the this month’s predictions, what do you guys think will happen? Will Terminator met a dark fate? Will Doctor Sleep only play to the hardcore fanbase? Will Last Christmas be a leggy sensation? Will Charlie’s Angels be another MIB International? Will Frozen II go even higher than predicted? All of these questions, and more will be answered soon enough in November, one the best months for quality movie going.
Leave your thoughts down below in the comments, and see you guys later!
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