Hello, everyone and yes I am aware that it has been over a month since I’ve done a new post, and sorry for that delay but things have been getting a little busy so that why I had this little long sabbatical. But don’t you fear because I have a lot of stuff planned like more Pixar reviews, a ton of new movie reviews, and of course this month’s box office predictions! Now with that, the month of September went about as well as expected with It Ch. 2 hitting it big (though not nearly as big as the original), Ad Astra, Rambo Last Blood, and Abominable opening modestly (expect reviews for the first two soon), and Hustlers unsurprisingly over performing. Heck the two biggest surprises are just how well Downton Abbey has been doing, and how hard the Goldfinch flopped (I mean I wasn’t expecting much from it, but yeesh those numbers are atrocious). But now we come into the month of October which has been getting a little more eventful in recent years with more high profile releases (last year especially), so I am absolutely curious to see how these releases fare. So without further ado let’s go ahead and wander into the spooky month ahead with films big, and small haunting a theater near you!
Lets get things started with the first weekend of the month which will only see one wide release opening, and a big one at that. I am of course referring to DC Films latest, Joker, which has been the talk of the town ever since it premiered at Venice in ways both good (the reviews have been mostly pretty good, there is a decent amount of Oscar buzz surrounding Joaquin Phoenix’s performance), and bad (the amount of online hand-wringing about whether or not the film supports, or condones violence, the various controversies about whether or not the movie will inspire real acts of violence, and more). If I’m going to be brutally honest I really don’t think the controversies will do much to affect this film’s financial prospects especially with how well Captain Marvel, and Aladdin did even with the constant online hand-wringing concerning those two releases. If anything the constant online chatter may make general audiences curious about it, and make them want to see for themselves what all the fuss is about. That and the fact that the Joker is the most famous comic book baddie of all time will get a lot of people to show up, and there it is ironic how the basic concept for this flick (a dark crime drama character study about a guy slowly descending into madness) is very commercially unfriendly, and it probably would have flopped without that DC character connection, yet because it is based off a famous comic book character it will most probably be a big hit. For better or worse that’s just how these things work nowadays, but hey at least its doing something different from other comic book movies so that’s always a good thing. With well received trailers, and hot buzz there’s not much going against this movie, and I expect it to dethrone Venom’s record for the biggest October opening with an $86 million opening weekend, and it should leg out decently with all of the awards buzz surrounding it to $238 million, and $466 million worldwide which should continue DC Films current winning streak.
The next weekend we have three very different new releases heading into wide release. I guess we should start off with the biggest question mark of the three, and probably the biggest question mark of the month (give or take next weekends big release), Ang Lee’s Gemini Man. The Will Smith vs. Will Smith sci fi actioner is hoping to break big with the help of a neat high concept (shot in 120 fps meaning this will be quite a theatrical experience), a high profile prestigious director in Ang Lee, decent trailers, and of course a true blue movie star in Will Smith which should at least increase the movie’s overseas prospects. Then again Ang Lee hasn’t had a hit movie since Life of Pi (his last film, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk was a huge disaster at the box office only making $1 million domestically, and $30 million worldwide), buzz has been pretty muted (though that could change closer to release), early word on the film isn’t great, and Will Smith has yet to prove himself to be a huge draw outside of a well known IP (Suicide Squad, Aladdin, etc.). So yeah its not hard to see why I’m more than a little skeptical on how this will do. Depending on how much it cost to male (probably a lot considering the technology on display), this could go either way, and I expect it will do okay enough domestically, and it could possibly break out overseas, but this will be a test case for Will Smith as an all by himself draw, and Paramount is praying for big hit (If not then its up to Terminator Dark Fate to not live up to its name). A performance on par with Men In Black International is what I’m expecting (funny enough a franchise Will Smith used to be a part of) so cue a $28 million opening, a $76 million domestic take, and a $243 million worldwide gross. Next up we have an animated reboot of a classic property that could end up surprising, The Addams Family. Yes the classic television series is getting yet another movie adaptation after the two live action ones from the 90s, so that nostalgia aspect could bring in a fair number of adults who grew up with the property, along with kids being introduce to the kooky family for the first time. While I am personally not a fan of how the marketing is trying to pander to the hip, and cool crowd, that could be a factor in getting kids interested, and it is coming around just in time for Halloween so that should help it out a bit. Add in a star studded voice cast (Oscar Isaac, Charlize Theron, Finn Wolfhard, Snoop Dog, etc.) and to be honest there’s not too much working against this one at the moment, and while I don’t think it will come close to the first one’s gross ($113 million domestic, $191 million worldwide), it will most likely pass the second one ($48 million) for a good total. I’ll go with a $23 million opening, a $75 million domestic total, and a $147 million worldwide take. Lastly we have the Adam Devine comedy about a man whose cellphone’s artificial intelligence program becomes obsessed with him. Sounds like a concept that’s been done a number of times, but I am always open to a good execution. With that said though I am not expecting much from this film even with an cast full of talented actors. Buzz has been pretty low, marketing has been muted, and the fact that there haven’t many break out comedies to come out this year with the exception of Universals Good Boys. Really not much to say for this one except a $6 million opening, a $14 million domestic total, and a $22 million worldwide gross.
In the third weekend there are 2 high profile sequels coming out that really could go one way or the other. First there is Disney’s latest live action re imagining, Maleficent Mistress of Evil the sequel to the 2014 hit ($758 million, $241 million of which came from the States) which is hoping to avoid the same fate that be felled other 5 years later sequels like the Lego Movie 2, and Godzilla King of the Monsters. I really doubt that it will succeed in avoiding that fate however as the original wasn’t exactly beloved by people to the extent that they were frothing at the mouth for a sequel, and I just feel like its a bit too late for this movie. The fact that it looks pretty generic doesn’t help matters either, and even if it is better that doesn’t mean audiences are willing to give this franchise a second chance (as sadly proven by the Angry Birds Movie 2 in August). So naturally this would be yet another Alice Through the Looking Glass right? Well I would think so, but there are a couple of things to keep in mind. First of all no matter what people thought of the original everyone agrees that Angelina Jolie was great as the character, so maybe there is some interest in her return (not to mention the fact that she is squaring off against Michelle Pfeiffer which is a nice added value element). Secondly this will be the first big high profile family flick since Disney’s the Lion King so that should be in its favor as well. But for now I’m a little unsure if this one will get anywhere near $100 million, so I’ll say a $34 million debut, an $106 million domestic total, and a $395 million global take though overseas could bring that worldwide gross up a bit if there’s enough interest. The other belated sequel this weekend is one that supposedly people have been clamoring for since the original first came out, Zombieland 2 Double Tap. This one could go one out of three ways. 1. It could become a breakout sequel given how much people love the characters, and the actors who portray them (along with some new faces played by Rosario Dawson, Luke Wilson, Thomas Middleditch, and of course Dan Akroyd joining Bill Murray who is coming back in some way) and how much the fans have been clamoring for a follow up for such a long time, meaning all of that hype, and demand will pay off in a more successful sequel. 2. It could stay flat like a lot of franchises do, meaning most of the people who saw, and liked the original will see this one, and that’s about it in terms of an audience meaning it will make a little more or a little less than the original’s total. 3. General audiences have absolutely no interest in a follow up, and most who saw the original will just skip out on this sequel, meaning this movie will end up making way less than the original, and meet the same fate as other comedy sequels like Zoolander No. 2, Neighbors 2, and My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2. The first and third option may sound hyperbolic (though still possible), so the second option seems to be the most likely since I think the people who saw Zombieland back in 2009 will most likely come back for another ride, while everyone else just waits for DVD or something like that. I’m hesitant to declare this will be a breakout hit (people love these characters, and their dynamic), or a total bust (the marketing, and buzz has been relatively quiet thus far), so I’ll just go in the middle with a $25 million opening, a $78 million domestic take, and a $111 million worldwide gross (the original only made $102 million worldwide in 2009).
In the final weekend of the month we have just three small releases coming out, so lets just quickly go through them. We have Black and Blue a new action thriller about a rookie cop who stumbles upon a murder committed by corrupt cops, and is now on the run from all manner of criminals, and lawmen in the city. This actually looks like a pretty fun cop flick with premise similar to this year’s John Wick Ch. 3, and a nice diverse cast with Naomi Harris, Tyrese Gibson, and Frank Grillo among others. Should do decent business as there is an audience for these types of flicks, so I’ll say a $13 million opening, a $35 million domestic gross, and a $56 million worldwide total, which would be good enough for this film. Then we have Countdown, a horror flick about a nurse who downloads an app that tells her when a person is going to die, and it tells her she only has 3 days to live meaning it is up to find out how to stop it. Opening just in time for Halloween should benefit this movie, and it sounds like one of those trashy horror movies that end up doing fine at the box office even if they are very front loaded. Wouldn’t be surprised at a $8 million opening, a $16 million domestic total, and a $20 million worldwide gross which would be good because lets be honest these things are made on such a shoestring budget that numbers like these would be profitable. Finally we have the Current War a movie that was once distributed by the Weinstein Company, but will now be dumped into theaters with little to no fanfare even with a great cast lead by Benedict Cumberbatch, Tom Holland, and Michael Shannon among others. It’ll most likely come and go with a $3 million debut, a $7 million domestic take, and a $10 million worldwide total.
And that’s wrap for the month of October 2019. What do you guys think? Will Joker laugh it all the way to the top? Will Gemini Man surprise? Will Maleficent Mistress of Evil end up doing better than expected? Will Zombieland 2 end up being a breakout sequel, or an overestimation of the internet’s demands? All of these questions and more will be answered in the spooky month of October, and I cannot wait to see who scares up the financial treats!
Leave your thoughts down below in the comments, and see you guys later!
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