Welcome back everyone to our fun monthly game of trying to predict how much money the movies of the month will make. Last month was actually my most successful one yet in terms of predictions with many of the big films doing about as well as expected (Spider-Man Far From Home, and the Lion King), and even some of the smaller films were able to surprise (Crawl, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood). The fact that the month was relatively barren in terms of new releases also helped. That however is not going to be the case here, as this year’s August is surprisingly crowded with many wide release films (some of which are high profile) opening literally right on top of each other. This is sure to be an interesting one to watch, as some of these releases are financial question marks at best, and a lot of them seem to lack a lot of buzz at this moment. Oh well lets try to be optimistic, and logical about this as we try to predict the box office of August 2019!
Lets get our engines started with the first week of the month where we only have one film going into wide-release, but it is a big one. I am of course talking about Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw which is more likely than not going to be the month’s biggest grosser. The spin-off of the massively popular franchise whose last two entries made over $1 billion worldwide has become something of an important release in a summer where, with a few exceptions, almost every non Disney/MCU flick has either under-performed or outright flopped, and I am almost confident it will be big. But the question is just how big are we talking about? Well I was a lot more confident in this flick for the last couple of months, and for good reasons. I mean this is one of the most popular blockbuster franchises out there with a big fan-base who will surely turn up for this film, as well as casual moviegoers who just want to see a big action film starring the Rock, and Jason Statham, and that casting should also be a huge benefit as well (along with some supporting turns by Idris Elba, and Vanessa Kirby among others). There’s also the fact that the trailers have been getting a lot of good buzz, and have been well received by general audiences, it’s the first big release of August, and history has shown before that that’s usually a good thing (see also Guardians of the Galaxy, the Bourne Supremacy, Rush Hour 2, Signs, and Suicide Squad among others) meaning no matter how big it opens, decent legs are an inevitability, and the last hard action flick was John Wick Ch. 3 in May, so it will play nicely to action junkies who haven’t gotten their fix in awhile, and it has two weeks before Angel Has Fallen in terms of similar competition. Although since this is PG-13 it will probably still be more appealing to younger audiences. So with all of that said why am I being a little cautious with this film? Well that mainly has to do with how this Summer has been going so far, and how films that seemed like safe bets on paper didn’t perform up to expectations (Detective Pikachu, Secret Life of Pets 2 etc.). So will that same fate await Hobbs & Shaw? Well I think its performance in China will be what determines that as the franchise has proven to be extremely popular there with both Furious 7, and the Fate of the Furious being among the highest grossing Hollywood imports in the country. So I think China will give this film a bit of a boost, even if they have been pretty obsessed with comic book movies over the last two years, with everything else not performing up to par (then again this is essentially a superhero movie). So with all of that said I’m going to be cautious and predict an opening of $74 million, a domestic total of $210 million, and a worldwide gross of $788 million (identical to Fast and Furious 6’s total), although I would’t be surprised if this one goes the extra mile, and surpasses my prediction.
Next in the sophomore frame we have five brand new releases, each of which targeting very different demographics from each other. First let’s talk about the most kid friendly one, and probably one of the more interesting flicks coming out this month, Dora and the Lost City of Gold. You know I never thought we would see the day where a live-action Dora the Explorer movie would be releasing in theaters, but here we are. To be honest it looks more like one of those Nickelodeon original movies than something that demands to be seen on the big screen, but in retrospect I could actually see this becoming something of a success. While I can’t say I have loved the trailers, I know plenty of people who are really excited about this film, and the trailers have gotten a surprisingly rapturous response from audiences when played in theaters. Add in some nostalgia for those who grew up watching Dora as a kid, little kids right now who are fans of the series will probably want to check this out, it will have been almost three weeks after the Lion King released so it can attract family moviegoers, and the diversity of the cast could appeal to a number of latino moviegoers. Sure it will be facing some family competition in the coming days, but still I think this could be a decent size hit a la the House with a Clock in its Walls. So I’ll go with a $24 million opening, a $75 million domestic take, and a $155 million worldwide gross. Next up is the horror film, Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, based off of the popular horror anthology series of the same name written by Alvin Schwartz. This one could attract fans of the books, as it is going to include all of the most famous ones from the source material, and form one story involving them just like the 2015 Goosebumps adaptation, only less kid friendly. I can see this being a nice little hit, and maybe it will surprise considering Guillermo Del Torro’s involvement could attract some people, there hasn’t been a major horror release since Crawl last month, the PG-13 rating means it can be able to appeal to younger audiences, and horror titles have a habit of performing above expectations in recent years. Then again this year there have been very few breakout horror films with the exception of Us, and Escape Room, with many of them doing merely okay business (Pet Semetary, Child’s Play, Annabelle Comes Home, etc.), so it is possible this film could join that list. That and buzz was relatively quiet on this one for a while which is a bit of a shock considering how much excitement there was on this project before. But I think it will end up doing well thanks to a low budget and its source material, so lets say a $15 million opening, a $47 million domestic gross, and an $88 million worldwide total. After that there is the latest dog movie, the Art of Racing in the Rain. This one should appeal to the same audience that made films like A Dog’s Purpose, and A Dog’s Way Home succeed, but after the relative under-performance of A Dog’s Journey I think people are starting to grow tired of them. I mean there are so just so many times you can tell a tear jerking story about the life of a dog. Sure it will have some things in its favor like Kevin Costner in the cast, and I can it being pretty leggy, but otherwise I think this one will perform quietly with an $8 million opening, a $32 million domestic total, and a $66 million worldwide gross. Then we have a new crime drama based off a DC Vertigo Comic series, the Kitchen. There was once a time where a film like this made for adults with a stacked cast would have been a solid little hit, but today its becoming very hard for those films to break out in this day and age, and I don’t think this one is going to break that trend. While it does look really good, and has a great cast with the likes of Melissa McCarthy, Tiffany Haddish, and Elizabeth Moss among others, those names aren’t exactly butts in the seats movie stars, there hasn’t nearly as much buzz on this one as one would think with the marketing being pretty quiet, and the fact that a similar film like this already came out last year, Widows, so there may be a little too much familiarity to viewers. With that said I think it will do worse than Widows (which wasn’t exactly a big hit itself) which is a real shame because it does look like a very solid, and well acted crime drama that deserves better than a $9 million opening, a $28 million domestic total, and a $61 million worldwide gross. Finally we have the latest inspirational based on true events story, Brian Banks. Now I’m not sure how wide this one is releasing, but I’m including it just in case, but with that said, I don’t expect this film to make much noise. It looks fine for what it is, but movies like this don’t tend to make big bucks, and this is probably not going to be an exception. There aren’t too many high profile names in the cast with the exception of Morgan Freeman, and there hasn’t been a lot of buzz on this one. Still it could leg out from its debut because there is an audience for these types of films. I’ll say a $4 million debut, a $12 million domestic take, and a $14 million worldwide gross.
In the third week, we have a whopping five brand new movies releasing from Wednesday to Friday. Let’s start with the Wednesday releases starting with what could be this month’s sleeper hit, Blinded by the Light. I mean think about it, a musically tinged feel good comedy set in the 80s, with a soundtrack comprised of Bruce Springsteen songs, sounds like a winner to me! This summer has shown how well these types of movies can do, with both Rocketman ($95 million domestic, and $182 million worldwide), and Yesterday ($64 million domestic, $111 million worldwide, and counting), and I expect this one to perform similarly to the latter. The film already premiered at SXSW and has gotten very positive reactions out of those who attended, Bruce Springsteen’s music is still very popular, there is some nice, refreshing diversity in the cast, and it will most likely appeal to music fans, and casual moviegoers who want a nice feel good time at the movies. I believe this one could surprise, and have very long legs no matter how much it opens with. So lets go with $14 million for the 3-day opening, $22 million for the 5 day, $69 million for the domestic gross, and $120 million for it’s worldwide total. After that the next release is the animated sequel, the Angry Birds Movie 2. The first Angry Birds Movie was a surprise hit in the summer of 2016 grossing $107 million stateside, and $352 million worldwide becoming the second highest grossing video-game movie of all time (it is now the fourth). With that said I think its safe to say a decent sized comedown is expected for the sequel. The first one wasn’t exactly beloved by critics, and general audiences, and if sequels like the Lego Movie 2, and the Secret Life of Pets 2 can under-perform well below their predecessors numbers, then I really doubt something like this is going to replicate the success of the first go around, even if it does end up being better. Add in Dora coming out a couple of days earlier, so it will be facing some family competition. But I can still see it doing well as long as the budget is kept in check, and if there is enough overseas interest to help it out. I’m going to predict $16 million for the 3 day, $24 million for the 5-day, a $66 million domestic gross, and $243 million worldwide take.
On Friday we have three more new movies coming out on. Lets start off with Good Boys, a raunchy comedy concerning three young boys getting caught up in a bunch of adventures while skipping school. This does look like the kind of film that could surprise. I mean it has an appealing premise, early reviews have been pretty positive, there haven’t been too many comedies of this nature this summer, and these types of raunchy movies produced by Seth Rogen, and Evan Goldberg tend to do decent business (Neighbors, This Is the End, Sausage Party, and Superbad to name a few). That said we have seen this Summer a number of comedies like Long Shot, Booksmart, and Stuber stumble at the box office, so that is something to keep in mind. Still I think it could do well either way with a $13 million opening, $45 million domestic total, and a $75 million worldwide gross. We also have yet another sequel that will most likely not perform as well as the first one, 47 Meters Down Uncaged. The original shark thriller released in 2017, and was able to leg it it to $44 million of an $11 million opening weekend, but it wasn’t amazingly received or anything like that, and its pretty obvious that this film is just one of those horror sequels that exists just because the first one surprised. I’m almost certain this is going to be an everyone was curious the first time, but didn’t care enough for another go around situation, but this film probably won’t cost much to make, and shark movies do have a habit of doing decent business so it will most likely be fine. With that said, I’ll predict an opening of $9 million, a domestic total of $30 million, and a worldwide gross of $51 million. Last up for the week is Richard Linklater’s latest, Where’d You Go Bernadette. This seem like a breath of fresh air from all of the blockbuster, horror, and family fare, providing something different mainly for adults, and it has quite the cast with the likes of Cate Blanchett, Billy Crudup, and Kristen Wiig among others. I think this could perform decently enough, although like I said before, we have seen many adult driven fare meet a not so good fate this summer. Couple in the fact Linklater’s films have never been huge moneymakers with highest grosser still being School of Rock ($81 million domestic, and $131 million worlwide), and even his Oscar nominated Boyhood only made $25 million stateside, and $44 million worldwide. I think this one will mostly perform about as well Bad News Bears, so a $10 million opening, $32 million domestic gross, and $36 million worldwide total.
Now I’ll be combining the last two weeks of August together since there’s the last weekend only has one release coming out. First lets start on the day of the 21st where we have yet another horror film, this one however being a little bit more high concept, and original. That is Ready Or Not in which a bride joins her new husbands rich family in a tradition that turns into a lethal game where everyone fights for survival, sounds neat. I think this will be a quieter performer since I don’t know if it’s going to appeal to everyone, there aren’t exactly many well know stars, and the fact that it will be facing serious competition from Pennywise very soon. But I still think a performance on the level of this Summer’s Midsommar would not surprise me (especially considering some narrative similarities between the two), so lets say a $6 million 3 day opening, a $9 million 5-day opening, a $21 million domestic gross, and a $25 million worldwide total. Next we have yet another action movie franchise returning for its third, and (presumably) final installment, Angel Has Fallen. The first film in the Gerard Butler saves the President franchise was a pretty good sized hit when it released in 2013 raking in over $98 million domestic, and $170 million worldwide on a $70 million budget. It’s 2016 sequel, London Has Fallen, was not as successful domestically only mustering up $62 million, but with a little help from China, made more worldwide with $205 million. So how will this new movie where Mike Banning is on the run as a framed criminal, and must save the president from some bad dudes, fare? Well I expect another domestic comedown, and that will most likely apply overseas as well. I think the reason London Has Fallen did better overseas was mainly because of the international setting whereas here things are grounded back in America. There’s also the fact that the trailers haven’t been received with much fanfare, franchise fatigue has been settling in for a lot of titles this year, and I have a feeling Hobbs and Shaw will still be legging it strong, and it will appeal more to younger audiences. Still it should still do decent business with a $17 million opening, a $47 million domestic gross, and $166 million around the globe. Then there’s yet another faith based inspirational drama with Overcomer. These types of movies never really are the kinds of films that break out too much, with a few exceptions (Heaven is For Real, War Room, Miracles From Heaven, etc.). Then again they mostly do solid business, and aren’t really concerned with getting too much buzz, and coverage to be a success so this one should do fine, and it could perform about as well as this year’s Unplanned. So $6 million for the opening weekend, $17 million for it’s stateside run, and $20 million around the world. Lets head over to the last day of July where we only have one film releasing, and that is Playmobil the Movie. The animated feature based off of the toy-line of the same name looks cute enough, with some charming, and creative elements here, and there, and it has a very good cast, but I think its safe to say it will not be another Lego Movie. While the toy-line is pretty well know it ain’t as popular as stuff like Lego, there is a big lack of buzz, the marketing has been surprisingly sparse, and limited, and it will be facing a lot of family friendly competition from some of the hold overs. I think this will end up performing worse than STX’s own Uglydolls movie (only $20 million domestic, and $27 million worldwide), and probably about on par with the Ratchet & Clank movie. So barring any delays I am predicting a $4 million opening, a $9 million domestic gross, and a $15 million worldwide take. It’s a real shame because a movie based around this toy-line could’ve had a lot more potential.
So that’s a wrap for this month’s predictions! What do you guys think will happen? Will Hobbs & Shaw save Summer from being completely Disney dominated? Will all of the horror movies exceed or go below expectations? Will Angry Birds, and 47 Meters Down prove that the first time wasn’t a fluke? Will adults show up for movies like the Kitchen, and Where’d you Go Bernadette? Welp, the only thing we can do is wait, and see how this packed month goes. If you have any predictions you would like to share, share them in the comments to discuss what will win it big, or lose it all!
Leave your thoughts down below in the comments, and see you guys later!
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