Hey everyone its that time of month again! For what you may ask? Why to predict the box office for the films coming in July of course! After a very crowded June which saw a number of films bomb/underperform way below expectations (Dark Phoenix, Secret Life of Pets 2, MIB International etc.), we now have a pretty barren July. Seriously there’s like only 6 wide releases coming out. I guess its to give the films from last month some breathing room so they can make whatever they can after poor debuts. So now without further ado, lets take a look at what the month of July has to offer in term of financial success or failure (hopefully I will get some things right this time).
Lets start of with the first week where we have two releases, one being the closing chapter to phase 3 of the MCU, and the other being the latest horror film from Ari Aster. Lets start off with the former in Sony’s Spider-Man Far From Home which is most likely going to be huge. Not only is it a sequel to the much liked Spider-Man Homecoming which made $334 million domestically, and $880 million worldwide (becoming the second highest grossing Spidey flick behind Spider-Man 3), but like I said it is considered the official end of phase 3, or an epilogue as you will to Endgame. That’s pretty much guaranteed to give it a bigger boost than it would have had if it were not following Endgame, as it has been sold as somewhat of a sequel to that film. Also benefiting the film are how well received by audiences Sony’s other Spider-Man like flicks have been (Homecoming, Venom, and Spider-Verse), it being a somewhat different type of Spidey flick than past iterations, and some of the added value elements like Samuel L. Jackson’s Nick Fury filling in for the mentor role left by Tony Stark, and Jake Gyllenhaal as fan favorite baddie, Mysterio. Not to mention how popular Tom Holland’s portrayal of the character is, the fact that it is opening on a Tuesday to increase grosses, and how almost every MCU second installment makes more than its predecessor (Iron Man 2, and Age of Ultron being the exceptions), and there are very few things that could go horribly wrong here. Sure maybe its legs will be cut short thanks to the amount of kid friendly competition coming out in late July, and August, but it will have probably made most of its money by then. So for the 3 day weekend I’ll predict $150 million, but for the 6-day I’ll go with $205 million, and a $405 million domestic total, and $1.1 billion worldwide cume since this is proving to be a big deal for many. Next up, Ari Aster returns after last year’s successful Hereditary to bring to us his next unusual creation, Midsommar. The film has already been getting raves out of film festivals, and is no doubt a critical winner, but can it fare about as well financially? Well judging from what I have heard it is indeed one of those horror movies that is bound to polarize people, and we’ve seen how those can perform very poorly (2017’s Mother being a good example), but there is reason to believe that this film could surprise. I mean horror films have a habit of performing above expectations, and I have a feeling this will get people talking like Hereditary did. In fact I think this film will perform similarly to that ($13 million opening, $44 million domestic gross, and $79 million worldwide gross), simply because of how the buzz for this film is very similar to that film, and the Wednesday opening day could help as well. Maybe I’m wrong and audiences will reject it, but a risk is a risk, and I am not ashamed to predict a $9 million 3 day opening, a 5-day opening of $15 million, a $39 million domestic total, and a $66 million worldwide gross.
The nest week we have two new wide releases, an action comedy, and a high concept horror thriller. First lets talk about the former, Stuber, which stars Kumail Nanjiani as an Uber driver who has to drive a cop played by Dave Bautista, on the trail of a killer. That’s a decent, and amusing enough concept that could appeal to people. I mean it also stars two very good comedic actors, its the first major comedy, and somewhat hard action film in a while, and the trailers have been pretty funny, so this could end up being something of a sleeper hit. It probably won’t be too big since the leads aren’t exactly butt in the seats movie stars, and mainstream comedies have been having something of a rough time recently thanks to streaming having tons of that (then again that’s a reason why every non tentpole movie is struggling nowadays isn’t it). I’m going to go with a $17 million opening, but I think it could leg it out to $56 million domestically, and $72 million worldwide. I would consider this an important release because it could prove that Disney can successfully sell a regular Fox movie (the less we talk about the performances of Tolkien, and Dark Phoenix, the better). Next up for that week is the alligators attacking people during a Category 5 hurricane thriller, Crawl. This is another one that could surprise thanks to its pretty neat concept (I mean alligators, and hurricanes, combine them, and you get something scary as hell), and the fact that high concept horror is all the rage nowadays. Add in some intense trailers, a nice feel of pulp fiction to it, and it most likely costs so little that it’ll make its money back no matter how big it opens. But like with Stuber I don’t expect massive grosses mainly because Kaya Scodelario, and Barry Pepper aren’t what would call well known stars, the buzz has been surprisingly muted, and the fact the fact that we have been getting a lot of horror films recently like Child’s Play, and Annabelle Comes Home. With that said I think it will be a modest success with a $15 million opening, $42 million domestic total, and a $60 million worldwide gross.
The next week we actually only have one release but its a big one, and it will most likely be the highest grosser of the month, and probably the biggest of the summer (not counting Endgame). I am of course talking about Disney’s latest live action re-imaging of one of their animated classics, The Lion King. Now of course this is going to be huge, but the thing that everyone is wondering is how huge will it be? Will it go above and beyond soaring above Beauty and the Beast ($1.264 billion in 2017), or will it merely settle for numbers on par with the Jungle Book ($966 million in 2016). After all the relative under-performance of Toy Story 4 (well if you were one of those people with the huge expectations), may make people be a little cautious when predicting whether this film will break any records. I think it is most likely going to go above, and beyond for many obvious reason. I mean this is the Lion King, a film that many people consider the very best of the Disney Renaissance, and is a classic among families, so there will be a huge nostalgia factor, and generations old, and young coming for this event. Also the cast is just stacked full of names (Donald Glover, Beyonce, and James Earl Jones among many, many others…), the nostalgia heavy trailers have been getting a mostly good reception, buzz has been building up in recent days, the photo realism is being praised for looking incredibly stunning, the diversity of the cast will most likely attract a lot of demographics, and if freaking Aladdin could make over $300 million domestically, and $900 million worldwide, then Lion King is most likely going to crush those numbers. To be honest there really is not much going against this movie, and it will most likely get the record for the biggest opening of the month of July. Cue a $208 million debut, a $643 million domestic take, and a $1.6 billion worldwide cume.
Finally we have the last movie releasing this month, and frankly it is probably the most important one for a number of reasons. Indeed Taratino’s latest Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is a test to see if adults will actually go and see a movie made specifically for them, that’s not a huge blockbuster tentpole. After disappointments like Booksmart, and Late Night we need more original films to actually succeed, and I think this film has some advantages that will hopefully make it more successful than the others. First, and this is probably the biggest one is Tarantino himself. He is one of the few directors today that can open a film with his name alone, joining rare company with Christopher Nolan, and most recently Jordan Peele. He has proven himself in the past to score big financial hits with the likes of Inglorious Basterds ($120 million domestic, and $321 million worldwide), and Django Unchained ($162 million domestic, and $425 million worldwide), and I expect this film to land somewhere in the middle of that. There is also that stacked cast which includes Leonardo Decaprio (who is one of the few actors who can sell a movie with his name, as proven by the Revenant in 2015, and it’s $532 million worldwide total), Brad Pitt, and Margot Robbie among others that will surely attract a number of curious viewers. Plus the trailers have been superb, the buzz is very strong thanks to it having premiered at Cannes in May, and early reactions have been extremely positive so far, how can this movie possibly fail? Well unfortunately there are a couple of reasons that may prevent this film from reaching Django numbers. There’s the whole adults not going to movies made for them problem, the fact that Tarantino’s last film, the Hateful Eight, was not a huge success (only $54 million domestic, and $155 million worldwide), I’m not sure how much overseas appeal a film taking a look at 1960s era Hollywood has, and the Manson murders aspect of the film could turn some potential viewers off. Still I truly am rooting for this film to succeed, and with any luck it could even surpass my current prediction of a $38 million opening, a $145 million domestic gross, and a $345 million worldwide gross, as this is a film that will most likely make its money through long legs than opening weekend. Come on Tarantino help John Wick, and (presumably) Hobbs and Shaw save summer from being completely ruled by Disney!!
So those are my predictions for the month of July. What do you guys think? What are your predictions? Will Far From Home be Spidey’s biggest grosser? Will Stuber, and Crawl surprise even more than I expect them too? Will Lion King meet my extremely high expectations? Will Once Upon a Time in Hollywood give hope to more adult movies? Well the only thing we can do is grab some popcorn, watch the numbers come in, and see what happens.
Leave your thought down below in the comments, and see you guys later!
Review Time 