Welcome back to my next box office predictions, and I know what you’re thinking, May is not even over yet, why so early! Well like I said in my Illumination movies ranked post, I said I was going to try to get out as many posts as I can before I leave for my trip so that’s why we are getting the June box office predictions in the middle of May, but hey the earlier the better. Besides we have a big month here with many big releases coming out, and hopefully I will fare better here in terms of getting the predictions right because May was not a good month for that with me only getting 2/9 of them right so far. Some I was too confident in (The Hustle, Poms, especially Detective Pickachu etc.). and one I was low balling (Hooray for John Wick Chapter 3 Parabellum), but lets see if we can get most right the second time as we take a look at how I think the films of June 2019 will perform!
Lets start off with the first weekend of June where we have 3 new films, 2 which of which are big franchise installments. Lets start with one of the more curious releases of the season, Dark Phoenix, the final film in the current X-Men film continuity. That sort of it all ends here angle could help pique interest in people, and bring in fans of the films, while the X-Men films have all done very well when it comes to opening weekends with all of them making above $50 million. But the movie will face many challenges, as it is following up the (my own opinion notwithstanding) relatively unloved X-Men Apocalypse, the marketing has met a mixed reception so far, people may choose to wait for Kevin Feige to incorporate the characters into the MCU, the production was very troubled with many delays, and re-shoots, and the fact that the Dark Phoenix story line was already attempted in The Last Stand (even if it was clearly just a subplot). Those challenges are what make me feel a little iffy about its domestic gross, and I think it will be the lowest grossing of the franchise for sure, but I think it will do fine overall thanks to China where Apocalypse made $121 million, as part of a worldwide gross of $543 million. So I’ll go with a $47 million opening, and since X-Men films are notorious for having horrible legs a $114 million domestic total, and a $420 million worldwide gross. The other big release is Illumination’s sequel to one of their biggest hits, the Secret Life of Pets 2. If I were to make this prediction last year, I probably would have predicted that this film would easily out-gross the first movie. I mean the first has the highest opening weekend for an original film, and had strong marketing that got the film a ton of buzz from families, so this film is bound to be huge, and I’m sure it will be but now I don’t think its going to make nearly as much as the first. The biggest reason why, is simply that the buzz is not nearly as huge as it was for the first with the trailers not really getting much attention (despite them being pretty good, especially that final one), and the fact that it will face some pretty stiff competition two weeks later (which we’ll talk about soon), which is getting more attention from people. Still this is Illumination and their films always make good bank, and the early previews might increase buzz, so for now I predict a domestic performance on par with Despicable Me 3, a $72 million opening, a $264 million domestic gross, and a worldwide cume of $710 million. Last for this week we have Amazon Studios latest attempt to get into the theater business, Late Night. The dramedy starring Emma Thompson, and Mindy Kaling, is one of those movies that would have thrived years ago in a different theatrical landscape but instead struggle in today’s market. The film hopes to serve as good counterprogramming to the other two releases, and early reviews have been pretty good so maybe Amazon could have a small success in their hands if the budget ain’t too high. So I’ll go with a $7 million opening, a $27 million domestic finish, and a $44 million worldwide gross since I don’t expect much overseas appeal. You do have to commend Amazon for making the kind of movies that adults would flock too instead of going to the next big blockbuster with their kids.
This Weekend we have once again three releases, all of them having very different senses of humor. Lets start off with the most high profile which is MIB International, the fourth entry in the Men In Black franchise, starring Chris Hemsworth, Tessa Thompson, and Liam Neeson among others. That cast is definitely going to attract some people, especially after Thor Ragnarok showed off Hemsworth, and Thompson’s great comedic chemistry, and there are plenty of other reasons why I think this will go down as a solid win for Sony. I mean they showed with Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle that they can bring back an IP and add something new to it, and reap great rewards out of it, the trailers have been getting a mostly positive reception, and the other MIB movies have all done extremely well ($589 million, $441 million, and $624 million for the trilogy). But that does bring me to why I don’t think it will be as big as the other, and that is the strength of the MIB brand. Now I love the concept, but I have a feeling most people went to these movies to see Will Smith, and Tommy Lee Jones as the protagonists, something this movie does not have (unless there’s a secret cameo their hiding). So this film will be a test to see if people care enough about the MIB brand without its two iconic leads, and that, and the fact that buzz is not quite high yet, is why this one is a bit of a challenge to predict. I am going to go with a $48 million debut, a $152 million domestic gross, and a $515 million worldwide total, but it could go higher if buzz starts to escalate closer towards release. Next up is Samuel L. Jackson’s next big role this year, Shaft, the legacy sequel to the other previous films in the franchise, with Richard Roundtree from the original trilogy in the 70’s, Jackson who was in the one from 2000, and newcomer Jesse T. Usher. That kind of hook, could attract all sorts of people, from the ones who grew up with the originals, to the ones who watched the 2000 one, and to those who are being introduced to the franchise (fitting that this movie is coming out around Father’s day), and it is a lot more enticing of a concept than just simply remaking Shaft. Add in fun trailers, and there not being too much action fare likes its type throughout the Summer, and we could have a surprise on our hands. But it will be facing some competition from MIB in terms of buddy cop type film, and the R-rating could prevent that broader appeal I just mentioned so I don’t expect blockbuster level grosses but I expect it to open well, and leg it out for a bit since there will not be much full on action movies until 21 Bridges in July. With that I predict a $24 million opening, and $68 million domestic, and worldwide gross since it will go straight to Netflix everywhere else. Last up is the latest film from Jim Jarmusch, The Dead Don’t Die, which could be the director’s first film since Broken Flowers in 2006 to cross $4 million domestic, and $10 million worldwide. While I am not too familiar with the director’s work, I can definitely tell his movies are not very mainstream, which is pretty obvious when watching the trailer for this film. Now I don’t mean it looks bad, it actually looks pretty interesting, but its not something that looks very appealing to people. I do think the Zombie aspect could help it a bit, but I do not expect big numbers at all, so think a $4 million debut, an $8 million total, and a $10 million worldwide cume.
Now we come to the third part of June where we have two big releases on tap, both of which involve toys coming to life. Lets start with what is pretty much guaranteed to be the biggest grosser of the month, and that is Pixar’s last sequel for a while, Toy Story 4. The Toy Story trilogy is one of those franchises that increases its grosses more, and more each time out, and I expect that to be the case here, even if I do not expect much of an increase. That has to do with the simple fact that maybe people thought three was enough especially after that perfect ending, so I do not expect it to be anywhere near as big as Incredibles 2 or even Finding Dory. With that out of the way the film is still most likely going to be huge, thanks to franchise nostalgia, very well received trailers, strong early buzz, some new high profile cast members like Key & Peel, and Keanu Reeves, it being from Pixar, and the fact that it is going to attract many families who love this series. While, there might be the factor of if the ending goes where I think they may be going then that may hinder longer legs than usual (a reason why I think Ralph Breaks the Internet wasn’t very leggy through its Wed-Sun debut), but it still should do fine in that regard. So right I now I predict a performance just a tad over Toy Story 3, so a $140 million debut, a $430 million domestic gross, and a $1 billion worldwide gross, which would make this series the second animated franchise to have two billion dollar grossers, after Despicable Me. Now the other toy related movie is aiming for a far different demographic, and that is Child’s Play the remake of the 1988 horror classic, which spawned a surprisingly successful, and long running series consisting of 7 movies 2 of which were straight to DVD releases. Whats weird is that the series is still going strong with a TV series coming to SyFy next year, so that may make the point of making this film questionable, and it might turn off fans of the franchise (even the original creator is not happy with this film being made). Also its legs will most likely be cut short real fast because of the other killer doll movie coming out next week. With that said it could benefit from Mark Hamill voicing the titular doll, and I doubt it cost a fortune to makes so a performance on par with other recent horror remakes like Evil Dead, Poltergeist, and Pet Semetary would be fine. So I’ll go ahead and say a $21 million opening, a $48 million domestic finish, and an $88 million worldwide gross.
Finally on the last week of June we have two more movies releasing one of which is another movie with creepy dolls. That of course is Annabelle Comes Home the third entry in the spinoff series spawned from the massively successful Conjuring franchise. With 5 movies (not counting last month’s the Curse of La llorona which is some how not being counted even if it takes place in the same universe), this series is probably the biggest horror series today, and one of the only fully functioning cinematic universes with each film making big bucks on tiny budgets, and I expect that to continue here. I think this film will do about as well as its predecessor, Annabelle Creation, and maybe it could do a little better thanks to the Warrens playing a role here, it opening on a Wednesday could boost numbers up, and if word of mouth is strong. But Conjuring Universe films are not very leggy, and this film will be facing more horror competition in the next few weeks so that’s why I don’t expect a blow out performance here. Still I am expecting a very good $40 million debut, $107 million domestic performance, and $350 million worldwide total. The last film we will be taking a look at is Danny Boyle’s latest film, Yesterday, a high concept musical about a struggling song writer who wakes up in a world where the Beatles never existed, and decides to use those songs to make him famous, and spread the music of the them. Is it me or does this have leggy hit, written all over it? This film looks to be a loving ode to the Beatles, and their music, which is bound to attract many people especially fans of the iconic band. I also think overseas appeal could also help this film out since the band is very famous over there. While I don’t think it will break out opening weekend, I expect insane legs that’s for sure. So I am going to predict a $17 million opening, a $60 million domestic gross, and an $120 million worldwide figure. If this sounds too optimistic, than it probably is, but still I like taking a good risk, and something’s telling this is gonna surprise (then again I said the same for Pickachu, and look how that turned out).
So that’s about it for the month of June everyone, and it looks like a pretty big month ahead. Hopefully I will get more predictions right, than wrong this time, but hey, we all make mistakes right? So tell me, what are your predictions for the month of June 2019? Do you agree, or disagree? Comment down below, and look forward to later next moth where we take a look at what July has in store.
Share your thoughts down below in the comments, and see you guys later!
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