Welcome back, everyone to my first box office prediction. Recently, I have found myself keeping track of how movies are doing at the box office (I can try and tell you the domestic box office for any wide release if your interested). I also read a ton of other posts about how people think a film will perform, a box office prediction, and I’ve always wanted to try it out. So I decided that before every month I will make a box office prediction, of all of the films coming out that month in a wide release. To be clear though I am not saying what I am predicting will actually be what happens, just an educated guess based on a number of factors. But with all that said, grab your calculators, and lets take a look at what May of 2019 has to offer.
First lets take a look at the first weekend of May, which sees 3 films heading into wide release and they each couldn’t be more different from each other, Long Shot, the Intruder, and Uglydolls. First lets talk about Long Shot, the political dramedy starring Charlize Theron, and Seth Rogen, that has been getting some strong buzz thanks to its premiere at SXSW. Seth Rogen is no stranger to leading successful comedies in the past (Neighbors, This is the End, and Sausage Party come at the top of my head), and I have a feeling this one could be leggy, and serve as good counter programming to Endgame. Couple that in with good reviews so far, a great cast, and funny trailers, and we could have an early summer surprise right here. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up matching Neighbors 2 Sorority Rising’s gross. So I predict a small opening of around $14 million, but I expect strong legs that will get it to a $53 million domestic gross, and a $90 million worldwide gross if it plays decently overseas. Next up is the Intruder, a home invasion thriller starring Dennis Quaid, that should appeal to thriller fans. Again this could serve as good counter programming to the big tent-poles this month, and Dennis Quaid as the villain could make some viewers curious, but there hasn’t been much buzz surrounding this release so I don’t really expect much from it. I predict a decent enough $10 million opening, a fine $30 million domestic total, and as long as it doesn’t cost too much a good enough $48 million worldwide total. Finally we have yet another attempt to turn a successful toyline into a feature film, Uglydolls, and boy does it look like the most generic mainstream animated feature ever. I really do not expect this film to make much noise at all, since it looks to be aiming toward a more younger demographic than recent animated features, limited buzz and it will face a deluge of family friendly competition throughout the month (we’ll get to that later). Apparently from what I hear STX entertainment is planning a whole franchise out of this, with toys, a TV series, games, a soundtrack (not gonna lie the song in the trailer was pretty catchy), and more, so they strangely have confidence in this movie. But it looks like that confidence is for nothing as I expect this movie to be a miss for the studio, with a performance similar to the My Little Pony Movie, so a $7 million opening, a $22 million domestic total, and a $53 million worldwide total.
The Next weekend present 3 more wide releases coming into wide release, each of which might surprise. First let’s talk about the one that I think will end up shocking us all, and that is Pokemon Detective Pickachu. I think this one is gonna be huge, for a number of reasons, the trailers have been getting a rapturous response, Ryan Reynolds provides some good star power, the Pokemon fanbase is huge, it will appeal to a variety of audiences (especially overseas), the buzz has been very positive, and it is the first major family film of the Summer. I just have a feeling this could exceed all expectations, and actually be the first hugely successful video-game, and anime adaptation (Heck i’m not even a die-hard Pokemon fan, and yet I am really excited for this). So screw it, $130 million opening, $335 million domestic total, and if it goes bonkers overseas, $1 billion worldwide gross! Am I risking abject humiliation by predicting this, maybe, but there’s something in my gut, that tells me this film will end up surprising (Plus who doesn’t love taking a good risk every once and a while). We also have two films this weekend that will try to appeal to mother’s, and daughter’s thanks to them releasing on Mother’s day weekend. There is the The Hustle, which is the gender bent remake of the 1988 film Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, starring Rebel Wilson, and Anne Hathaway. I think this film will benefit from not relying on its relation to the original film and being its own thing, and it will also be riding on the success of other similar girl’s night out party movies like Oceans 8, Girls Trip, Mamma Mia Here We Go Again, and Bad Moms, to name a few. Buzz has also been getting stronger as we approach the release, Wilson, and Hathaway provide some nice star power, and the trailers have been surprisingly funny, so I can see this performing like a milder version of some of the movies I listed above. I’ll go with a $20 million debut, a $75 million domestic run, and an $110 million worldwide gross, since these movies really make most of their money here. There is also Poms, the cheer-leading comedy which will also try to fight for the Hustle’s main demographic, and to attract the same audience that helped last year’s Book Club leg it from a $13 million opening to a $68 million total. While the buzz hasn’t been as strong as the Hustle’s, I still expect the film to do about as well as Book Club (Diane Keaton is also in this one which could again attract a similar audience). So I expect it to thrive alongside the Hustle with a small $15 million opening, but leg it up to a nice $62 million total (Book Club did not play overseas, so I would’t be surprised if the same happens with this movie).
Now we come to the third weekend of May which once again has 3 wide releases (noticing a pattern here), one of which I am hoping will do even better than what I am predicting. That of course is John Wick Chapter 3 Parrabellum, the highly anticipated threequel is riding on the much earned goodwill of its predecessors to become the highest grossing in the series both domestically, and Worldwide (Expect some throwback reviews in the next couple of weeks). The first John Wick, was a solid success in 2014 legging it to $43 million from a $14 million opening, and $88 million worldwide. But thanks to good will from its predecessor, and great buzz, the sequel, John Wick Chapter 2 made double what the first earned in its debut with $30 million, and made even more money both with $92 million domestically, and $171 million worldwide becoming an excellent example of a breakout sequel (a sequel that makes even more than what its predecessor made). So as for this third flick, I think it will become the highest grossing of the franchise, thanks to many of the same factors that led to Ch.2 being a success, a great cast, extremely strong buzz, fantastic trailers, and it being the first full on action film of the season. So with all that said I predict a $42 million opening, a $121 million finish, and a $220 million worldwide total, although I do hope it goes higher. But Parabellum isn’t the only dog related movie that is releasing this this weekend as there is also A Dog’s Journey, the sequel to A Dog’s Purpose which legged it from an $18 million opening to $64 million domestic, and a whopping $205 million worldwide (it apparently did very well in China). I don’t expect the sequel to replicate that success, since it will be surrounded by a number of family friendly releases (the 1st benefited from January’s lack of competition), there isn’t much buzz surrounding it (unless it is revealed that there is false animal abuse claims going on behind the scenes like in the run up to the first films release), and this franchise has already experienced somewhat diminishing returns thanks to the release of A Dogs Way Home only earning $42 million domestic, and $75 million earlier this year (I know their not connected, but their novels are from the same author so I count it as a franchise). But these films do have an audience so I still expect a fine performance about on par with the aforementioned A Dog’s Way Home, so a $14 million debut, a $41 million domestic finish, and a strong $142 million worldwide take. Last up for this weekend is yet another young adult star crossed lovers story in the form of the Sun is Also a Star (seriously we get like 5 of these every year). This film is coming out around the same time when Everything, Everything debuted to $11 million, and legged it to $34 million, and I expect this film to do about as well as that because these films definitely have an audience (that also helped Five Feet Apart make $45 million domestic this year from a $13 million opening), it will also benefit from there not being many films of its type, and it could serve as fine counter programming to the other two releases. With that said I say a $12 million opening, a $36 million total, and $64 million worldwide gross.
We are now in the 4th quarter, as we have once again 3 new releases, but one of those releases is probably the biggest question mark of the Summer (if not the entire year). I am of course referring to Disney’s latest live action “re imagining”, Aladdin. I absolutely have no idea how this movie is going to perform, because it really could go either way. On the one hand this is Aladdin we’re talking about, one of the biggest Disney renaissance films, so it will obviously benefit from nostalgia, and Will Smith as the Genie could draw some curiosity. On the other hand, the buzz has been extremely mixed thanks to less than well received trailers, a deluge of controversy that has been plaguing this film since day 1, it releasing on Disney’s cursed Memorial day where some of their biggest flops have released (Tomorrowland, Alice Through the Looking Glass, Solo etc.), and do I need to even mention how Will Smith looks the titular character. So we could either be looking at a Solo performance, where it does okay numbers here, but is ignored overseas, or it could do a Pirates of the Caribbean Dead Men Tell No Tales performance, where it makes smaller numbers than expected, but has robust overseas grosses, or it could just flop in all places. I’m gonna predict somewhere in the middle with a $75 million debut, and $200 million domestic, and a worldwide gross of $610 million, but this film is gonna need to start getting good buzz real fast, unless Disney wants another live action re imagining to flop this year (poor Dumbo). Next we have James Gunn returning to the genres that made him famous ,horror, and superheroes with Brightburn. The concept alone is really intriguing (what if Superman used his powers for evil?), and the film does have strong buzz, thanks to Gunn’s involvement, and intense trailers. But I have a feeling this could open strong, but be pretty frontloaded thanks to the there being a bunch if horror movies releasing after, and this does not seem like a very audience friendly horror movie. So with that said, I say a $20 million opening, a $47 million final total, and since I don’t expect much overseas appeal, a $64 million worldwide gross, which should be fine, if the budget was kept in check. Then we have yet another film that got good buzz coming out of SXSW, Booksmart. The coming of age comedy is looking to serve as an alternative option to the other two flicks, and I think it could do well (I think how Long Shot does will determine whether this film will break out or not, since I expect strong legs for that). I think this film will open okay, and might leg it out, if buzz continues to build, so for now I think the movie will get a $10 million opening, a $32 million total, and a $45 million worldwide gross, but it could go higher.
Okay, so technically this isn’t the last full weekend of May, and yes 3 these movies will make a majority of their money in June, but they still come out on the last day of May, so they still count for this post. First lets start with another movie I hope goes above what I am predicting and that is the next installment in Warner Bros. Monster-verse, Godzilla King of the Monsters. The buzz for this movie has been extremely positive, with many excited for the giant monster battles, and the epic scale that has been presented. Add in some epic trailers, anticipation for next year’s Godzilla Vs. King Kong, Millie Bobby Brown of Strangers Things fame as the human lead, and the well received Kong Skull Island hyping this film up, and this film looks to be a huge winner for all parties involved. But there’s just one thing that makes me a bit cautious of how this film will perform, and that is how the original Godzilla performed, and how it was received. Now don’t get me wrong it was far from a bomb, as it did get decent reviews, and opened to the tune of $93 million. But it immediately sank like a rock after that becoming one of the most front-loaded blockbusters in recent memory, crawling to just $200 million domestically, and only $529 million worldwide (still a good gross), and that is thanks to audiences not taking a liking to how Godzilla was barely in the movie (even though he appears quite often), and how there was little of him fighting monsters. This one looks to fix on those aspects, but I still expect some front-loading due to the insane amount of competition it has throughout the month of June (which we’ll talk about in a couple of weeks), but still I can definitely see it making bigger numbers especially if it lives up to the hype. So I am cautiously predicting an $80 million opening, a $197 million total, and a $640 million worldwide gross, here’s hoping it fares better than WB’s other 5 years later sequel (you deserved better Lego Movie 2). But Godzilla is not the only anticipated release coming out this weekend as Paramount will be unleashing their Elton John biopic, Rocketman. This film is obviously trying to cash in on the massive success of Bohemian Rhapsody which made over $900 million worldwide! While I don’t expect this film to make anywhere near as much as that (Queen is arguably more popular than Elton John), this film has sleeper hit written all over it. I think the well received trailers, strong buzz, and the fact that musicals are one of the biggest genres right now (I wish more people would take notice of that more) will benefit it tremendously, and it will serve as excellent counter-programming to all of the big action, horror, and animated hits of the Summer, and leg it out like crazy. I may be overestimating this film, but just like with Pickachu, I have a good feeling about this one, so cue a $44 million opening, but I expect strong legs to get it to $175 million domestic, and $435 million worldwide. Finally we have Blumhouse’s latest horror outing Ma starring Oscar winner Octavia Spencer. They have been on a role lately with original horror, what with films like Split, Get Out, Happy Death Day, and most recently with Us surpassing financial expectations, and I expect something similar for this film. Sure Brightburn opening a week before could lessen demand for more horror, but again their films have such low budgets, that they can make their money back opening weekend without breaking any records. Plus with a great actress involved playing against type, and a cool concept, I think this will be another hit for them. So I’m going with a $24 million opening, a $57 million domestic total, and an $115 million worldwide gross (about on par with Happy Death Day).
And those were my box office predictions for the month of May 2019 everyone. I may be wrong or right for many of them, but hey that’s where all of the fun comes from. I did have a lot of fun making this, and this is something I do plan on doing, every month so keep on the lookout for them. With all of that said, tell me what you think of my predictions, do you agree with me, or do you think I’m crazy, sound off in the comments below, and tell me your predictions for the month of May.
See you guys later!
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